Why Matt Eberflus Can't Be Counted Out with Bears Playoff Chance 1%

When NFL teams lose five in a row, especially after they ended a 14-game losing streak the previous season, thoughts turn to coaching or regime change.

Obviously coach Matt Eberflus hasn't given up on the players and they have shown for two weeks they're still trying.

"Didn’t get it done at the end but got ourselves in a position to win the game at the very end two weeks in a row," Eberflus said Monday. "That is grit, determination, working together to be able to get that done.

"Now we just have to finish better."

Still, it's only natural to ponder a coaching change because it's the NFL and losses are not tolerated.

The current Bears losing streak under Matt Eberflus of five straight is no natural barrier of any kind in the NFL for a coach to be fired but it's significant because he's in Year 3.

There have been plenty of coaches who lose more in succession and retain their jobs.

There are teams who have had such little success that their fan base would have been glad had the worst thing their coach did was lose five straight. Thursday's Bears opponent, the Detroit Lions, were among those teams just a few years back before Dan Campbell's arrival. The Carolina Panthers, the team Ryan Poles supposedly "fleeced" in his trade, were another. Now look at them: two wins in their last three and a 30-27 loss to Kansas City.

The Jets lost six straight in 2022 and retained Robert Saleh until the losing continued and they let him go this year.

On the other hand, the Houston Texans fired head coaches after consecutive years with nine straight losses by Lovie Smith's team and eight by David Culley.

Most teams will give a coach a break in his first season when it comes to losing, though.

Doug Pederson lost five straight during his first year as Eagles coach in 2016 and the next year won the Super Bowl. So first year is an easy losing streak to overlook. Eberflus’ 14-game losing streak began in Year 1 so it was always easier to overlook.

In fact, you don’t even have to look too far back to find a coach with a worse combination than Eberflus’ 14-game losing streak and current five-game losing streak. Doug Marrone had a 15-game losing streak in 2020 with Jacksonville and also losing streaks of five and seven games in his time with the Jaguars.

What really seems to matter most for longevity with coaches who have losing streaks is if a coach actually had already proven they could win or had won.

This is where the real problem exists for Eberflus. He has won more than two games consecutively once, and then it was three games this year. He has a 14-31 record.

The classic case of a team sticking with a young or inexperienced head coach was Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. He lost five straight in 2009, as hard as that is to believe, but was kept on board and made the Super Bowl the next year. Of course, it didn't hurt that Tomlin had won the Super Bowl the year before his five-game losing streak.

Winning helps

Kevin Stefanski is still coaching the Browns after losing five straight this year but he was in the playoffs last year and prior to that had his team in postseason.

What's to be remembered now is the Bears have never fired a head coaclh in season, Ryan Poles likes Eberflus and the players haven't quit on him—yet. That’s all working in his favor.

Bears ownership has always valued how the players are still fighting and haven't quit when there is pressure on coaches. At least the GMs have said this over the years.

However, there are plenty of examples where it's safe to wonder if the McCaskeys really even know something like this.

They kept John Fox as he coasted toward retirement for a third season after a four-game losing streak and three three-game losing streaks during one season alone. They let him absorb a five-game losing streak in 2017 and let him coach out the entire rest of that season.

They let Dave Wannstedt lose six straight and in 1998 after he had lost seven straight the pevious season but still wouldn't fire him. He finished 4-12 his last two seasons, his fifth and sixth years in Chicago.

They didn't fire Matt Nagy until after the 2021 season despite five straight losses, a season after he had six straight losses.

Marc Trestman's 2014 team finished with five straight losses, eight in 10 games, players were yelling at each other and the offensive coordinator was crying. The team was completely disintegrating with Trestman seemingly ignoring it all in a 5-11 season.

Yet the Bears did not intervene and fire him until after the season.

The message here is don't expect the Bears to be willing now to fire Eberflus just because the losing streak has hit five and could hit six. In fact, considering the competition, it would surprise no one if the Bears went winless the rest of the way.

On Sunday, George McCaskey was caught on video patrolling the parking lot at Soldier Field, talking to fans, gauging where they’re at on the thing.

It's nothing new for him to do this but if he was taking a gauge of fans' thoughts on Eberflus or the team, he must be truly oblivious.

The good thing for the Bears owners is there are only two more home games left and they won't have to look at a lot of empty seats at Soldier Field too many times.

NFL.com released its playoff picture for the stretch run this week and in it, they have the Bears categorized with teams under the famous Lloyd Christmas line from Dumb and Dumber: "So you're saying there's a chance."

It's a 1% chance. If they win over Detroit on Thursday, it's 2%.

It's probably more like they have a 2% chance of beating the Lions on Thursday.

The losses just keep on coming, but no one can say the Bears aren't making those defeats interesting. Who loses on a Hail Mary, a blocked field goal and then in overtime during a five-game stretch. Incredible.

As long as they’re making it interesting, it’s easy to talk yourself into believing they're still trying hard.

When there is a blowout, it can be the jolt that finally wakes up people.