Why isn’t Bills HC Sean McDermott receiving more NFL Coach of the Year buzz?

The discussion regarding Sean McDermott’s security as the head coach of the Buffalo Bills has long taken on a different tone depending on who’s engaging in the conversation. Whereas a contingent of local fans have vied to see the veteran sideline boss dismissed for years (oft-citing his mismanagement at the end of his team’s 2021 AFC Divisional Round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs), national reporters have long purported that the Bills’ all-time leader in head coach winning percentage is in no danger of losing his job.

The ‘McDermott conversation’ seems to annually resurface in Western New York amidst a rough patch, and this year was no different; after Buffalo was embarrassed in a Week 4 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the head coach again experienced an end-of-game lapse in judgment in a Week 5 loss to the Houston Texans, grossly mismanaging the clock in the bout’s final moments to all but hand the opposition the victory on a silver platter. That loss saw the re-manifestation of concerning trends and highlighted McDermott’s lack of growth in key areas, with some members of the Buffalo faithful calling for McDermott to be shown the exit door at One Bills Drive despite boasting a 3-2 record at the time.

Fast forward to late November, and McDermott hasn’t seen another blemish added to his record or résumé. The Bills rattled off six straight wins ahead of their Week 12 bye to improve to 9-2 on the season, the No. 1 seed in the AFC and a first-round postseason bye firmly within reach. Buffalo’s conference-best winning streak has seen it add two wins within the division while scoring at least 30 points in all but one of its contests. The Bills are coming off a Week 11 triumph over the previously undefeated Chiefs in which they added the first loss to the back-to-back Super Bowl champion’s 2024 record, a win that should allow Buffalo to slide into the conference’s top spot should Kansas City slip up as the season progresses.

The Bills are off to their best start since 1992. They’re only half a game back of the No. 1 seed in the AFC and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over their fiercest competition. They hold a commanding five-game lead in the AFC East. Quarterback Josh Allen is at the forefront of NFL MVP conversations. All of this is occurring in a ‘retooling’ or ‘rebuilding’ year in which most pundits expected Buffalo to take a significant step back given its offseason roster overhaul, with some analysts even projecting the team to finish third in its division and miss the playoffs entirely.

Buffalo’s current status as one of the NFL’s unequivocal top teams is borderline astounding given its national preseason expectations, and while several parties deserve significant credit for its 9-2 start, McDermott is perhaps at the top of the list. Despite consistently dealing with injuries across the roster that have resulted in key players like Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Christian Benford, Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid (amongst others) missing varying lengths of time, the Bills have continued to stack wins, this a testament to the culture McDermott has built over the past eight years and his proficiency for developing and preparing depth talent.

He’s even shown in-season evolution with regard to end-of-game management, most notably in his team’s Week 11 win over the Chiefs. Up by two points with just over two minutes left to play, the sideline boss opted to go for it on a late fourth-and-two inside of Kansas City territory, attempting to put the game on ice as opposed to giving the ball back to Patrick Mahomes while up by less than a touchdown. The decision proved fruitful, as Allen broke off a heroic 26-yard touchdown run to give Buffalo a late two-score lead.

Nobody expected the Bills to be here. They shouldn’t be here. Yet, they are, and McDermott has played a significant role in this feat.

So why isn’t he receiving more NFL Coach of the Year buzz?

McDermott is currently tied with Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur and Chiefs sideline boss Andy Reid for the eighth-best odds to earn Coach of the Year honors at +2,500 (odds via FanDuel). He’s behind Mike Tomlin, Dan Campbell, Jim Harbaugh, Kevin O’Connell, Jonathan Gannon, Dan Quinn, and Sean Payton, and while all seven are deserving candidates in their own right, it’s as though arguments used to discredit McDermott’s case apply to and are ignored for some of these names.

There appears to be some revisionist history occurring with regard to McDermott and Buffalo’s 2024 campaign, as a whole. Those who don’t feel as though the veteran coach has a legitimate argument for this season’s Coach of the Year award oft-state things in the vein of ‘the Bills have been good,’ ‘he’s a proven regular season coach,’ and ‘he has Josh Allen.’ All of these things are true, but let’s not forget that just a few months ago, many pundits felt as though Buffalo’s offseason roster turnover would lead to its downfall and that it would struggle to stay afloat in the postseason race. Allen was even voted as the NFL’s most overrated quarterback by over 100 of his contemporaries; now that McDermott has traversed these waters, it’s as though some like to pretend these narratives never existed.

And some of these cases used against McDermott, again, apply to coaches who currently have better odds to win this year’s award. ‘The team has been good’ – the Lions made the NFC Championship last year, but Campbell has +400 odds. ‘He’s a proven regular season coach’ – Tomlin is in his 18th season as an NFL head coach and has never posted a losing regular season record, but he’s currently the betting favorite to earn Coach of the Year honors.

We’re not arguing that McDermott should be the betting favorite to earn Coach of the Year or that he has a better case for the award than every name above him on the odds list. Coach of the Year is often a narrative-driven award, and the fact that the Bills have been competitive throughout almost the entirety of his stint in Orchard Park may hamper his chances as voters are instead drawn to flashier stories. That said, the job McDermott has done through this point of the 2024 season cannot be overlooked, and it deserves more national recognition; written off as a declining team with a closing championship window in the leadup to the new campaign, Buffalo is playing some of its best football in years, this thanks in long part to its head coach.