Why is the Oilers’ offence struggling and will it bounce back?

There’s been a lot of talk about the goaltending woes of the Edmonton Oilers and how inconsistent their blueline has been this season. But as the team struggled through a disastrous month of February, one thing that stood out was how flat their offence looked.

Don’t take this as me saying that all the blame lies at the feet of Edmonton’s forwards. That’s not what I’m saying at all. With average goaltending, the Oilers would never go on a five-game losing streak and with a better blueline, they would probably have a comfortable lead over the Vegas Golden Knights in the race for the top spot in the Pacific Division.

Still, the scoring struggles are a little concerning. This team used to be able to simply outscore their problems, but, recently, their ability to not just produce goals, but generate any sort of pressure offensively has fallen off of a cliff.

Year over year, things aren’t all that concerning. Through 60 games this season, the Oilers have scored five or more goals ten times. Out of those games, they dropped one of them, a 6-5 loss to the Florida Panthers back on December 16. They’ve also scored four or more goals a total of 26 times. 

Last season, by the 60-game mark, the Oilers had scored five or more goals in a game 14 times and four or more goals 31 times. There’s a gap there. They’ve had four fewer games by the same time this year where you could say their offence really carried them to a win.

Also worth noting is that the Oilers have been shut out four times so far this season and have been held to one goal or less four other times. By the 60-game point last season, they had only been shut out twice and were held to one goal on five other occasions. Again, it’s not a super concerning implosion, but there’s a slight drop-off.

Now, back to focusing on this season. When you look at the 60-game sample size as a whole, they’ve generated a lot of chances. At 5v5, they are 1st in SF/60, 3rd in high-danger shot attempts/60, and 2nd in xGF/60. They are 10th in actual goals/60 and that’s likely because they are 26th in 5v5 SH%. They actually have been pretty unlucky this season and are probably due to go on a run where a bunch of pucks start going in. All numbers via Natural Stat-Trick.

The month of February was not kind to them though. At 5v5, they are 11th in SF/60, 30th in high-danger shot attempts/60, and 18th in xGF/60. The result of that drop-off in quality chances, and just chances in general really, has put them at 19th in GF/60 at 5v5. They’re 23rd in SH% at 6.9%, which is a drop off of 2.3% compared to the season as a whole.

They aren’t getting to dangerous areas nearly as much as they were early in the season and they aren’t finishing off the few chances that they’re getting.

While this was a part of the reason why the losses piled up, I don’t think I have very many long-term concerns. First off, the month of February was an unusually poor month for Connor McDavid. It’s rare that the Oilers lose the 5v5 matchup when No. 97 is on the ice but that happened in February. In fact, they didn’t just lose it, they got smoked. With their Captain on the ice at 5v5 in February, the Oilers got outscored 13-2 and lost the high-danger shot battle 31-27. They did outshoot the opposition and had a positive xGF%. 

Things will turn around for McDavid and that is my biggest source of optimism when it comes to believing that the offence will bounce back. Beyond that, there are too many solid forwards on the Oilers for this performance to continue.

Viktor Arvidsson has better hockey in him and Adam Henrique is shooting six percent lower than he was in his last season and a half with the Anaheim Ducks. Zach Hyman hasn’t looked like the hard-working Zach Hyman that we’re used to seeing.

There are a lot of players who should have some better hockey in them. They’ve all struggled at once but if they can simultaneously break out of those slumps in the final stages of the regular season, then we might be talking about an Oilers team that’s ready to take the league by storm down the stretch.

The Oilers also acquired Trent Frederic and Max Jones on Tuesday, adding some forward depth to the team’s roster. While both of these players will make the Oilers more difficult to play against with their physicality, neither is going to be leaned on to score goals in the top-six. That’s going to have to come from slumping players turning things around.