In Week 11, the Miami Dolphins put an absolute beatdown on the Las Vegas Raiders.
Now granted, this was largely expected, as, despite their similar records, the Dolphins were widely considered the better team in the AFC shootout. But nearly doubling the Raiders score, winning 34-19, while Tua Tagovailoa threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns? In a game where De’Von Achane ran the ball 17 times for 73 yards on the ground versus 60 yards for the entire Raiders rushing offense? Goodness, this was a statement win for a team that desperately needed to make a statement.
Sitting comfortably in second place in the AFC East, five games back from the white-hot Buffalo Bills but 1.5 games up on the hapless New York Jets and the plucky New England Patriots, it’s pretty safe to say the Dolphins won’t win the division for the first time since 2008. Fortunately, three additional teams make the playoffs from each division each year, and in Week 12, with the Patriots on the books for their second matchup of the year, Miami has a chance to make it three-straight wins in the pursuit of a wildcard berth.
Will it be easy? No, but considering there are only eight teams in the AFC with a winning record at the moment, the chances of the Dolphins going from 2-6 to the playoffs very much exists, especially since there are some extenuating factors that could play out well in their favor.
The Dolphins’ schedule isn’t particularly difficult
Over the next seven weeks, the Dolphins play the Patriots in Week 12, the Green Bay Packers in Week 13, the New York Jets in Week 14, the Houston Texans in Week 15, the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, the Cleveland Browns in Week 17, and the Jets, again, in Week 18.
At first glance, that is what, four easy wins and three challenging games, right?
With their games against the Bills officially out of the way, the Dolphins have three division games left to play, all of which they will likely be favored in unless they take a nose dive or Aaron Rodgers really turns the Jets around. Factor in a game against a Browns team that can surprise teams but does currently employ Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback, and four wins are borderline guaranteed from that stretch, bringing the Dolphins’ win total to 8-4.
If they lose to the Packers, Texans, and 49ers, that would bring the Dolphins’ win total to 8-9, which probably isn’t good enough to guarantee a spot in the playoffs, but if they can just beat a team like the 49ers, who might just be the most disappointing team in the NFC sitting at 5-5 and suddenly, everything changes.
Need proof? Well, look no further than the AFC West, where the Dolphins’ Week 11 opponent, the Raiders, are the division’s lone team without a winning record.
Sitting at 7-3, the Chargers play the Ravens, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Denver down the stretch, and the 6-5 Broncos have a similarly tough go, with the Chargers, Bengals, and KC still on the schedule. If one of those two teams finds that their schedule didn’t fall their way, the Dolphins could sneak into the playoffs and suddenly sit three games away from the Super Bowl.
The Dolphins defense is playing better than their offense
When the Dolphins parted ways with Vic Fangio so he could return to the Keystone State and coach the Philadelphia Eagles, more than a few fans wondered if Anthony Weaver would be able to step into the veteran coordinator’s shoes, let alone surpass him.
So far, so good; the Dolphins rank 10th against the pass and ninth against the run, with only eight other teams allowing fewer yards and 13 other teams allowing less than their 211 points. Veteran players like Zach Sieler, Calais Campbell, and Jalen Ramsey have all played very well as defensive tone-setters for the first-year DC, and young players like Jordyn Brooks, Storm Duck, and Jevon Holland are all doing their parts to fill out a formidable unit.
With two straight games allowing less than 20 points on their resume and an offense that is finally back to full strength, more or less, the Dolphins aren’t going to let games get away from them any time soon and should instead be able to hang against even the toughest draws left on their schedule.
The Dolphins offense is (slowly) getting back on track
It’s kind of hard to judge the Dolphins’ 2024 season from a macro-statistical perspective, as it’s really been a tale of two seasons for Miami’s finest.
In games where Tagovailoa is starting, the Dolphins have averaged 240.5 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game, even if their record isn’t particularly impressive at 3-3. But when it’s anyone, else, be that Skylar Thompson or Tyler Huntley? The team’s passing average drops nearly 50 yards per game, with none of their other starters averaging more than 126 yards per game.
If Tagovailoa didn’t miss a month of the season, would the Dolphins still be 4-6? No, probably not, but fortunately, since his return, the Dolphins are 2-1 and have only lost to a Bills team that almost never loses. If the Dolphins can average 250 passing yards through the air down the stretch and continue to maintain the 11th-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, with Achane and company averaging 122 yards per game, who knows, maybe Miami will get back to their old high-flying ways when Mike McDaniel was widely considered one of the best offensive play callers in the NFL.
