By Week 2 of the season, the Miami Dolphins' playoff hopes already seemed dim.
Late in the third quarter of a home game against the Buffalo Bills—a constant divisional rival—quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion. The injury left many questioning not only if he would return in 2024 but if he might consider calling it a career altogether.
Six weeks later, Tagovailoa made his comeback, though it took him two games to shake off the rust and get Miami back in the win column, starting 0-2 upon his return. By then, the damage to the season was clear. The Dolphins had gone 1-4 during his absence, including a loss to the Bills.
At the halfway point in Week 9, the Dolphins sat at 2-6. However, a more favorable stretch of schedule awaited them, and Tagovailoa’s return played a crucial role in their resurgence. Miami went 6-2 the rest of the way, clawing back into the AFC playoff picture, taking advantage over teams with losing records.
Now, as Week 18 approaches—the final week of the regular season—the Dolphins face a tricky situation. They’ll need more than just a win to make the playoffs for the third consecutive year. With the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals also in the hunt for the No. 7 seed, Miami’s fate is no longer entirely in its hands.
That said, the Dolphins might just have the best shot of the three teams vying for the final AFC playoff spot.
The Broncos path to the playoffs
Of the three teams contending for the No. 7 seed, the Broncos have the most straightforward path, with the Dolphins second and the Bengals facing the steepest climb.
Denver could have clinched a playoff berth in Week 17 with a win over the Bengals. However, an overtime loss—sealed by a Tee Higgins touchdown reception—changed the narrative and kept Cincinnati’s postseason hopes alive.
Once again, Denver faces a “win and in” scenario in Week 18. The challenge? Beating the Kansas City Chiefs. While the Chiefs have already secured the NFL’s best record and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with a Christmas Day win over the Steelers, three factors make this matchup more complex.
First, this is a division rivalry, and pride is always at stake in such games. Second, Denver hasn’t had much success against Kansas City historically, losing 15 consecutive meetings before finally snapping the streak last October. Finally, although the Chiefs are likely to rest many starters, including Patrick Mahomes, don’t underestimate Carson Wentz, who will be eager to prove himself as Kansas City’s backup and keep them at just one loss on the season.
The Bengals path to the playoffs
The Broncos’ overtime loss kept Cincinnati’s playoff hopes alive, but the Bengals have the toughest road to the No. 7 seed. To claim the spot, Cincinnati not only needs to defeat the Steelers on the road, but they also need the Dolphins to either lose or tie against the Jets at MetLife Stadium.
The Steelers, currently riding a three-game losing streak, will be desperate for a win to end their skid and reclaim the AFC North, which slipped into the Ravens’ hands last week. Despite struggling offensively—averaging just 10 points per game over their last three outings—the Steelers may find some relief against a shaky Bengals defense.
Cincinnati also has a poor recent track record against the Steelers, going 1-5 in their last six matchups. That said, their lone victory during that stretch came in Pittsburgh back in November 2022, giving them a glimmer of hope heading into this game.
The Dolphins path to the playoffs
While the Broncos have a simpler “win and in” path, the Dolphins’ scenario, while not great, has enough that could work in their favor.
First, Miami must defeat the Jets, which, given the circumstances, should be manageable. The Jets are mired in dysfunction, and the organization seems eager to put this season behind them. With a 4-12 record and having lost six of their last seven games, New York isn’t exactly a formidable opponent. Although it’s a division rivalry game, this matchup lacks the intensity seen in other divisional clashes this week. Not to mention Miami beat them back in Week 14 in overtime.
Second, the Dolphins need the Broncos to lose. As previously mentioned, Kansas City has already locked up the AFC’s No. 1 seed and has nothing to gain or lose in this game.
Denver, meanwhile, has faltered in close games recently, losing their last two contests by a single score to the Chargers and Bengals. However, the Broncos have been strong at home this season, suffering just two losses at Empower Field.
The biggest concern for Miami in Week 18 will likely be the health of Tagovailoa, who was out with a hip injury against the Cleveland Browns in Week 17. Tyler Huntley proved to be a nice fill-in but it goes without saying that coach Mike McDaniel would like to have his star quarterback behind center.
