Heading into the final three weeks of the regular season, the Seattle Seahawks’ playoff hopes are hanging in the balance. Sitting at 8-6 and tied with the Los Angeles Rams atop the NFC West, the Seahawks need to beat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon to remain in control of their own destiny in the division title race.
But a trip to the playoffs isn’t the only thing on the line over the final three games.
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This closing stretch could also be pivotal to Smith’s longer-term future in Seattle – a topic that has hovered in the background all season long as the franchise’s biggest question mark going forward.
Smith is signed with the Seahawks through 2025, having inked a three-year, $75 million contract extension in March 2023. But the 34-year-old veteran quarterback’s deal doesn’t include any guaranteed money after this season, which essentially places him and the franchise in a year-to-year relationship.
According to Over The Cap, Smith’s salary cap hit increases from $26.4 million this season to $38.5 million in 2025. That puts Seattle in a scenario where it likely will need to decide this offseason whether to extend Smith on a restructured deal or to cut ties. If the Seahawks were to trade or release Smith this offseason, they would save $25 million in cap space, according to OTC.
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“These final three games of the regular season obviously are going to determine the Seahawks’ playoff fate, but I think it’s going to play a big role in what they decide to do with a lot of these key members of the team going forward,” Curtis Rogers, the producer of Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy, said while filling in as a guest host on Friday’s show.
“These games are going to have a big impact on what the 2025 Seahawks look like, and Geno is definitely part of that conversation. Do you run it back with him?”
After a breakout 2022 season and a solid 2023 campaign, Smith has had an up-and-down third year as Seattle’s starting quarterback.
Smith ranks third in the NFL with 3,623 passing yards and fifth with a 69.9% completion rate. He ranks fifth with 25 big-time throws – a Pro Football Focus metric that measures high-difficulty, high-value passes. And he continues to excel in crunch time, sitting near the top of the league with three fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives.
Most notably, Smith delivered a dramatic game-winning drive against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 11, capping a masterful 80-yard touchdown march by scrambling for a 13-yard score with 12 seconds remaining.
But on the flip side, Smith has had too many costly mistakes. He ranks third in the NFL with 13 interceptions – including a league-high four red-zone picks. The most crippling gaffes came in an overtime loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9, when he threw two second-half interceptions inside the opposing 10-yard line – one of which was returned for a 103-yard pick-six. He also has just 14 touchdown passes through 14 games and has completed just 48.9% of his red-zone pass attempts, which ranks near the bottom of the league.
“Geno has kept this team in some ballgames, has some game-winning drives, has made some crazy throws,” Seahawks Radio Network analyst and former NFL wide receiver Michael Bumpus said. “But it’s almost like you go on this 10-play drive and you start making these (great) plays, and then you turn the football over. So all of that work is erased.
“It’s like when you close your computer and you didn’t save your work. You’re like, ‘Oh, that was a great article I just wrote,’ and then you close it, you didn’t save it, you pop it back open and it’s gone. That’s what it feels like sometimes with Geno. All that work, didn’t hit save, it’s gone.”
A tough season to evaluate
Smith’s up-and-down season has been particularly difficult to categorize, as illustrated by the contrast between his PFF grade and his ESPN QBR metric.
Smith is the eighth-ranked quarterback in PFF grading, sitting one spot ahead of Kansas City Chiefs superstar Patrick Mahomes. But in QBR, he ranks 24th out of 34 quarterbacks. That’s a significant dip from the past two seasons, when he finished seventh in QBR in 2022 and 14th in 2023.
The biggest complicating factor in evaluating Smith’s season is Seattle’s struggling offensive line. The Seahawks have dealt once again with a slew of injuries and subpar play up front, which has often left Smith under duress and in challenging situations.
“On paper, his season doesn’t look the greatest,” Bumpus said. “(But) I think he’s had a good season for what he’s been surrounded with, especially with the big boys up front, their availability and their consistency.”
Smith has been sacked 43 times this season, which is third-most in the league. He has been pressured 210 times according to PFF, which is second-most in the league. He has been pressured on 38.3% of his dropbacks, which is sixth-most. And all of that pressure has certainly played at least some part in his turnovers, as 11 of his 13 interceptions have come while under pressure, according to PFF.
Furthermore, the struggles up front have resulted in a sputtering and sometimes almost nonexistent rushing attack. The Seahawks rank 21st in yards per carry (4.1) and 28th in rushing yards per game (94.3). They have rushed for 80 yards or fewer in five of their 14 games, including 65 yards or fewer four times. Without consistency on the ground, the Seahawks have found themselves in far too many obvious passing situations, which has put even more pressure on Smith and the offensive line.
“The offensive line works its way into every single conversation we end up having about this team,” co-host Stacy Rost said earlier this week. “You wanna talk about Geno Smith and his red-zone interceptions? Those are totally on him, (but) you still have to acknowledge that he’s one of the most pressured quarterbacks in the league.
“Same with the run game. If we want to talk about why you aren’t seeing more from (running back) Ken Walker, well, how much of this is an offensive line issue? If we want to talk about why we aren’t seeing the best of (first-year offensive coordinator) Ryan Grubb? Well, how much of it is an offensive line issue? How can you truly evaluate any of these connective tissues without looking at the offensive line first?”
On top of that, there’s now another potential complicating factor.
Smith sustained a knee injury on a low hit during last week’s loss to the Green Bay Packers, which forced him to exit the game. Testing revealed no structural damage to Smith’s knee and he was a full participant in practice this week, putting him on track to start Sunday against the Vikings. But while speaking to reporters on Thursday, Smith indicated he wasn’t yet back to 100 percent.
“A lot of guys are less than 100 percent,” Smith said. “I’ve been that way pretty much the majority of the season. That’s just the way the NFL goes. But no excuses. Gotta go out there and perform.”
How Smith performs over the final three weeks will go a long way toward determining Seattle’s playoff fate – and perhaps how he fits into the franchise’s future plans.
“These next three games are just as important for Geno Smith as they are for the Seahawks,” Rost said.
