Waiver claims are a tough thing to predict, especially in the preseason.
At least once a year, and often several times, a seemingly-quality player hits the waiver wire and folks expect half the league to put in a claim…only for that player to go unclaimed and be quietly reassigned to the minors.
And then there’s the opposite situation, in which a player that no one has ever heard of is claimed because, for some reason or another, at least one NHL team sees real value in them.
This sort of thing tends to happen a few times over each preseason.
That’s why, when the Canucks put Guillaume Brisebois and Jett Woo on waivers earlier this week, there were at least a few predicting that Woo would be claimed. He’s just 24, has been progressing nicely in the AHL, looked okay in the preseason, and – most importantly – is a right-handed defender.
And yet, Woo went unclaimed and is now safely back down in Abbotsford.
All of which might make attempting an article specifically about prognosticating various Canucks’ chances of being claimed on waivers sound like a fool’s errand. And maybe it is. But this fool’s here to work, and we’re going to give it a shot anyway.
Nils Åman
Chances of Being Waived: Medium
Odds of Being Claimed If Waived: High
As it stands, Åman has what some might call the inside track on being the Canucks’ 13th forward at the outset of the 2024/25 season. He might not crack a centre corps that currently features Elias Pettersson, JT Miller, Pius Suter, and Teddy Blueger, but the fact that Åman could fill in for any of them or any of the wingers makes him an ideal extra forward over someone who can only play on the wing.
Combine that with traits like his size, his skating ability, his general safe play, and his age, and it all adds up to someone who can serve a role on this roster, even if it’s not an every-night role.
Still, given the uncertain status of Dakota Joshua and Thatcher Demko, on top of the Canucks’ stated desire to stay under the cap, there’s a distinct possibility that the team decides to go with no extra forwards to start the year in a bid to accrue more cap space. If that comes to pass, or if someone unexpected like Jonathan Lekkerimäki cracks the roster, then Åman goes to the waiver wire all the same – at which point he would almost certainly be claimed.
A 24-year-old, 6’2” centre who can skate and already has a baseline of defensive responsibility at the NHL level? The odds that all other 31 teams pass on at least trying out an asset like that are slim.
Mark Friedman
Chances of Being Waived: High
Odds of Being Claimed If Waived: Medium
Friedman is another player who might feel the pinch of an atypical roster this season. Normally, the Canucks roll with eight D on the roster, and if that were the case, Friedman would almost certainly be one of those eight D.
But there’s a chance that the Canucks, on either a temporary or a semi-permanent basis, decide to ride with just seven defenders on the roster for the purposes of staying even further under the cap. In that case, the top-six is clearly defined as Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek, Carson Soucy, Tyler Myers, Vincent Desharnais, and Derek Forbort, which puts Friedman in direct competition with Noah Juulsen for what could be the only extra spot.
And most would put their money on Juulsen.
Should Friedman hit waivers, there’s a lot there to like for another team. He’s a RHD, the rarest commodity in the game, and has experience with three different NHL clubs. He’s also one of the most effective agitators in the game, and has a preternatural ability to draw penalties. Maybe he wouldn’t crack many entirely healthy bluelines out there, but injuries are going to occur in the preseason, and chances are good there will be at least one team out there that will consider making use of Friedman’s services for the time being if he ends up being available for free.
Phil Di Giuseppe
Chances of Being Waived: High
Odds of Being Claimed If Waived: Medium
As per usual, Di Giuseppe is having a strong training camp. But that doesn’t mean he’s going to make the team. Right now, there are clearly at least 12 other forwards in front of him on the depth chart in Pettersson, Miller, Suter, Blueger, Brock Boeser, Jake DeBrusk, Conor Garland, Dakota Joshua, Danton Heinen, Kiefer Sherwood, Nils Höglander, and Daniel Sprong. That would seemingly put Di Giuseppe in a battle with Åman and a few others for the 13th forward spot – but as we mentioned, there’s a chance the Canucks don’t even roster an extra forward at the outset of the 2024/25 campaign.
A waiving seems likely for Di Giuseppe. And if he does hit the wire, we can see plenty of appeal to various other NHL franchises. What are the odds that not one of the other 31 teams comes out of the preseason feeling like they need help on the penalty kill? Di Giuseppe offers expertise there, along with good on-ice energy and an occasional ability to move up the lineup. He’s a great temporary fill-in for any team down a forward, and he’s proven to be someone coaches want on their roster. If Di Giuseppe gets waived, it’s at least a coin-flip as to whether he makes it to Abbotsford or not.
Noah Juulsen
Chances of Being Waived: Low
Odds of Being Claimed If Waived: Very High
There is a chance that Juulsen is beat out cleanly for the seventh D position by Friedman or someone else. There’s also a (much smaller) chance that the Canucks decide to temporarily run a roster of just six defenders.
Either scenario puts Juulsen on waivers, but neither scenario is very likely. Part of that equation has to be the knowledge that Juulsen, as a sizeable and physical RHD who played the bulk of the season for a playoff-bound team last year, would almost certainly be claimed on waivers. Simply put, there are some bottom-rung rosters out there right now that don’t have six defenders clearly better than Juulsen. Two of them might be right next door in Calgary and Edmonton. Combine that with the high probability of preseason blueline injuries, and Juulsen seems like a slam-dunk to be claimed – and thus someone to avoid waiving.
Daniel Sprong
Chances of Being Waived: Very Low
Odds of Being Claimed If Waived: High
Given how long Sprong had to wait for a contract, one might feel as though his NHL job is not-quite-guaranteed. But that’s not how Sprong has been treated by the organization. He seems to have been penciled into the starting 12 already, and Rick Tocchet has spoke openly about his eagerness to work with Sprong on the gaps in his game.
Factor in Sprong’s preseason heroics thus far, and the likely need to cycle wingers into and out of the top-six, and you wind up with a player who probably will not be waived this preseason.
If he is? Then we have to ask ourselves, what are the chances that all other 31 NHL coaches come out of the exhibition feeling confident in their scoring options? Any team looking for a little more spark would have a pretty cheap and efficient candidate if Sprong hit the waiver wire, which is all the more reason he won’t.
Christian Wolanin
Chances of Being Waived: Very High
Odds of Being Claimed If Waived: Very Low
Now we’ll bat a little cleanup. The vast majority of players going down to Abbotsford from here on out are exempt from waivers, including some who have already seen a decent amount of NHL time like Linus Karlsson.
The highest-profile of the remaining waivees is probably Wolanin. He’s a franchise defender at the AHL level and always looks intriguing in the preseason, but has not been able to crack the Senior Canucks for any serious minutes as of yet. At the age of 29, the book is almost certainly written on Wolanin by now, and that book says ‘valuable minor league veteran.’ If another team were totally bereft of power play options on the backend due to preseason injuries, we could see them taking a flyer on Wolanin. Otherwise he sails through waivers with ease.
Nathan Smith
Chances of Being Waived: Very High
Odds of Being Claimed If Waived: Very Low
The Canucks’ second Nathan Smith is a right-handed centre, and that always gives him at least a little chance of drawing interest from another team. But in all likelihood, Smith will pass through waivers and head to Abbotsford to play the role he was signed for: semi-talented and responsible AHL linemate for younger prospects.
Jiri Patera
Chances of Being Waived: Very High
Odds of Being Claimed If Waived: Low-to-Medium
Until Demko returns, Patera is set to share the Abbotsford net with Nikita Tolopilo. Goalie injuries happen often in the preseason, but anyone looking for a netminder is likely to find a handful of better and more experienced options on than Patera on waivers in the week to come. He’ll pass through with no issues.
