What’s the difference between a $55M and a $40M quarterback?

The big NFL news this week is that quarterback Trevor Lawrence has signed a five-year, $275M contract to remain with the Jacksonville Jaguars:

Here are the top 15 QB contracts before the Lawrence extension, per Over The Cap:

Courtesy of Over The Cap

Once updated, Lawrence will be tied with Joe Burrow for the biggest QB contract in the NFL in both total and annual average value. The $200 million total guaranteed amount will trail only the contracts of Deshaun Watson and Burrow.

An amount like that is no surprise for a former No. 1 draft pick in today’s NFL. The question is: Is Trevor Lawrence worth that much? How good a QB is he, really? Lawrence followed his awful rookie year under awful head coach Urban Meyer with a bounce-back 9-8 sophomore season that got the Jags to the playoffs, topped off by a stirring comeback playoff victory over the Chargers. In 2023 he regressed, though, as the Jags lost 5 of their last 6 and missed the playoffs.

This has led The 33rd Team to make what many people will regard as an unflattering comparison with New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones:

(For the record, 48 starts for Jones does not include his terrible abbreviated 2023, but neither does it include much of the second half of 2022, when he had some of his best games. Note also that rushing yards and rushing TDs are not included.)

Former BBV writer Dan Pizzuta, now of The 33rd Team, wrote a detailed piece arguing that Lawrence’s stats aren’t as bad as they’ve looked because of flaws elsewhere on the team (receiver quality, offensive line quality). Pizzuta argues that in 2022 Doug Pederson and his staff restricted Lawrence to a quick dropback, short passing game and eschewed downfield shots that are a big part of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. In 2023 they thought they had addressed those personnel problems, but the offensive line issues persisted, and though Lawrence tried some deep throws he mostly reverted to the short game. Pizzuta also argues that Lawrence was a victim of many dropped passes. If all these arguments sound familiar to you...well, they should.

If only there were a way to quantify these effects on quarterback performance...

It turns out that there is. Ben Baldwin of The Athletic has taken raw expected points added (EPA) statistics for the past two seasons and adjusted them for the quality of pass blocking, receiver drops, dropped interceptions, luck on interceptable passes (“turnover-worthy plays” in PFF lingo), fumble recoveries, interception returns, and the quality of defenses faced. He also limits the EPA assigned to the quarterback to only that for the expected YAC, e.g., a short slant to Tyreek Hill that he takes to the house only counts as much as a short slant to a lesser receiver who can’t outrun everyone. Here is a chart showing the rankings for NFL QBs when the adjusted EPA/play is used, along with the size of the adjustment to allow us to see who is helped/hurt by factors outside the quarterback’s control:

Lawrence, whose raw EPA/play of 0.09 over this time period was tied for 14th, moves up to No. 7 in the NFL in the adjusted rankings, consistent with Pizzuta’s arguments. Worth $55M/year? That remains to be seen, but it makes more sense when the quarterback’s own responsibility is isolated from that of his teammates.

You may also notice that Jones, whose raw EPA of 0.03 is tied for 23rd on this list, rises to No. 13 when the adjustments for things out of his control are accounted for. Coincidentally, Jones’ contract, in both average annual and total value, is tied for 13th in the NFL.

Lawrence looks the part: Confident demeanor, national champion, blond flowing locks, drafted No. 1 as everyone expected. Jones doesn’t: Painfully bland, looks like the kid the other boys would beat up (he really should have kept the beard), came from a losing college program, over-drafted at No. 6 in the eyes of many. Yet the stories of their NFL careers haven’t been as different as many people imagine. The difference is there, and it’s real, but it’s not huge - an adjusted EPA/play separation of 0.03. The biggest difference: Lawrence has missed only one game due to injury. Jones prevailed in their one meeting.

Yet one is now making $55M per year, the other $40M. One is guaranteed $200M total, the other $104M total.

Don’t shoot the messenger.