A lot of things went right for the Edmonton Oilers during the 2024 playoffs, in which they were just a single win away from the Stanley Cup. Perhaps the most pleasant surprise was the emergence of their elite penalty-kill.
This past spring, the Oilers ranked first among all playoff teams with a 94% penalty-kill percentage. They allowed a mere four goals on the penalty-kill in 25 playoff games, three of which came in the second round alone.
In fact, Edmonton did not allow a single goal on the penalty-kill in the first round and the Western Conference Finals, while allowing just one goal in the cup finals against Florida. On the other hand, the team scored three shorthanded goals, nearly producing a net-even goal differential on the penalty-kill — an extremely impressive feat.
It’s reasonable to say that if Edmonton’s penalty-kill was league-average, they would not have reached this far. Simply put, this was an absolutely critical part of their success.
But, it wasn’t always like this.
Over the past few seasons, the area in which Edmonton has been most consistent is their power play. Since 2019-20, the Oilers have averaged 11.1 goals per hour on the man advantage. No other team ranks above 9.18. In fact, the gap between the Oilers and 2nd-place is greater than the gap between 2nd and 16th-place (!).
However, the story isn’t the same with their penalty-kill, which has often been wildly inconsistent over the years.
Initially, the penalty-kill was excellent in Dave Tippett’s first two seasons as Edmonton’s head coach, as the PK ranked fourth in the league from 2019-20 through 2020-21. But, it then completely collapsed in the first half of 2021-22, ranking 27th in the NHL; that, combined with the team’s dreadful 5-on-5 play, ultimately led to Tippett and defence coach Jim Playfair’s dismissals in February of 2022.
Under head coach Jay Woodcroft and defence coach Dave Manson, the penalty-kill improved to 9th for the remainder of 2021-22. In their first (and only) full season behind the bench in 2022-23, the penalty-kill ranked 20th in the league – slightly below-average.
Then, the 2023-24 season was an absolute rollercoaster.
During Edmonton’s historically awful 2-9-1 start to 2023-24, essentially everything went wrong; this includes their penalty-kill. In the first 13 games of the season, Edmonton’s PK ranked 29th – or third-last – in the NHL. Ultimately, Woodcroft and Manson were fired.
When current head coach Kris Knoblauch and defence coach Paul Coffey were hired, assistant coach Mark Stuart was put in charge of the the penalty-kill. Initially, it took a complete 360, improving all the way to first in the league from November 12th until the All-Star Break. It was a vital part of their historic sixteen-game win streak.
However, the Oilers PK collapsed in the subsequent month, ranking second-last in the league in February. The team would then go on to rebound to 13th from the beginning of March until the end of the regular season, until finally possessing the league’s best penalty-kill in the playoffs as mentioned above.
As we head into 2024-25, several questions surround the Oilers. Can they replicate their success from the 2024 playoffs? Will their off-season additions and departures have any impact? And, most importantly, can they finally maintain a consistent penalty-kill?
To answer these questions, let’s begin by analyzing the players that contributed to Edmonton’s penalty-kill, both in the regular season and playoffs, starting with the forwards.
In the regular season, the Oilers had eight forwards averaging at least 30 seconds on the PK per game. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mattias Janmark, Connor Brown, and Derek Ryan were Edmonton’s most common penalty-killers.
Playing heavy minutes against top power play units, RNH generally struggled to limit goals and shots in the regular season, and so did Derek Ryan, while Janmark and Brown produced solid results. Interestingly, Edmonton’s best PK forwards in the regular season in terms of goal and shot suppression were Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele, two of Edmonton’s major departures this summer. Of course, they were not as heavily deployed against top PP units, but it’s certainly worth noting.
Here are the results of the forwards in the post-season:
With the exception of Derek Ryan, all of Edmonton’s regular penalty-killers absolutely thrived in the playoffs.
Of course, the most memorable penalty-killers in this run were Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown, highlighted by their key shorthanded goals in Games 4 and 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals. In fact, the Oilers outscored opponents 3 to 1 on the PK with Janmark and Brown on-ice, marking a spectacular 75 percent goal differential; it’s quite evident that they were key depth pieces in Edmonton’s playoff run.
Moving on, here are the defencemen:
In the regular season, Ceci and Nurse were Edmonton’s top pairing on the penalty-kill. Ceci’s results were subpar, while Nurse heavily struggled in terms of limiting goals. On the other hand, Ekholm and Desharnais did well at suppressing shots against, while Ekholm was also Edmonton’s best defenceman at suppressing PK goals (aside from Bouchard, but obviously, he was not a regular penalty-killer).
Finally, here are the playoff results:
In the playoffs, the deployment saw a significant change. Although Desharnais was scratched for nearly the entirety of the finals, he led the defencemen in PK TOI per game, while Ekholm ranked second in TOI/GP and first in total TOI. On the other hand, Nurse’s deployment on the PK considerably decreased.
Evidently, these changes certainly paid off. Ekholm and Desharnais stepped up in a bigger role and were fantastic on the PK, particularly Ekholm. Meanwhile, in a lessened role, Nurse substantially improved.
Of course, Stuart Skinner also deserves significant credit in all of this. In the playoffs, he led all goaltenders in goals saved above expected on the penalty-kill, with a 7.9 GSAx. While he was often inconsistent at 5-on-5, it’s difficult to deny that he was superb at stopping shots on the PK.
Out of the 19 different skaters that Edmonton played in the cup finals, six of them departed this off-season: Warren Foegele, Vincent Desharnais, Ryan McLeod, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, and Cody Ceci. Four of those players were regular penalty-killers: McLeod, Foegele, Ceci, and Desharnais.
On the other hand, Edmonton’s major NHL additions this summer were Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson and Ty Emberson, while Vasily Podkolzin also has a decent chance of cracking the NHL roster.
Skinner and Podkolzin have never been regular penalty-killers at the NHL level. Arvidsson did not kill penalties in Los Angeles, but he was one of Nashville’s most frequent penalty-killers from 2016-17 through 2019-20, posting above-average results. Finally, in the 30 NHL games that Emberson played in 2023-24, he only averaged just over a minute per game on the PK (not particularly high for a defenceman), but he was San Jose’s top defenceman at suppressing shots on the PK.
So, what does this all mean for Edmonton’s penalty-kill in 2024-25?
In terms of forwards, Nugent-Hopkins, Brown, Janmark, and Henrique are likely to be Edmonton’s most frequent penalty-killers. As he turns 38 in December, I would certainly expect Derek Ryan’s TOI to decrease.
To replace McLeod and Foegele’s minutes, I wonder if Edmonton gives Viktor Arvidsson an extended look due to his experience in Nashville. Perhaps Zach Hyman may also see a significant increase in PK TOI in comparison to last season; it’s certainly worth mentioning that he was Edmonton’s most frequent forward penalty-killer in 2021-22. They could also grant James Hamblin a spot in the NHL, who was a major contributor to Bakersfield’s PK in the AHL.
As for the defence, you can expect Mattias Ekholm to continue ranking as Edmonton’s #1 defenceman on the PK, while Nurse is likely to see an increase in his deployment compared to the playoffs. However, with the departures of Desharnais and Ceci, the right-side will be a massive question mark; perhaps the coaches decide to try Brett Kulak on his off-side?
I would definitely grant an extended opportunity to Emberson to see if his results with San Jose can sustain over a large sample. If Emberson fails to work out, Troy Stecher could be an option, but I’m not confident how successful he could be, as his PK results in Arizona were quite weak.
Overall, the penalty-kill is certainly one of the greatest question marks for the Oilers heading into 2024-25. Most of Edmonton’s top penalty-killers remain intact on the roster (RNH, Janmark, Brown, Ekholm), but it will be difficult to replicate their success from the 2024 playoffs. Edmonton’s management should prioritize acquiring both a top-four RHD and a defensively-minded middle-six forward by the trade deadline to improve both their 5-on-5 play and the PK.
All things considered, if the Oilers want to return to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2025, a consistent penalty-kill will be key.
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