What Should We Expect from J.J. McCarthy This Season?

The Vikings have set him up for success, but can he deliver in his first season as the starter?

The Minnesota Vikings have set the stage for J.J. McCarthy to be their starting quarterback this season and have built a supporting cast that any quarterback would love to have. But even with those advantages, the first season starting for a young quarterback can be a bumpy road filled with both promise and disappointment. Even future Hall of Famers paid their dues in climbing a steep learning curve and getting acclimated to a league much different from the college game. And even some of the better performers in their first season as a starter failed to be much more than average when compared to the rest of the NFL starting quarterbacks.

So with all that in mind, what should we expect as J.J. McCarthy prepares to be the starting quarterback for the Vikings this season?

McCarthy is QB1

While the Vikings entertained some options during free agency that may have resulted in competition for the QB1 role, nothing ever materialized or was even very close to materializing, from various reports on discussions the Vikings had with Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, and perhaps a couple others. The Vikings are still looking for a QB2, but at this point there is nobody out there that is likely to challenge McCarthy for the QB1 spot.

What History Tells Us About a Young Quarterback’s First Season as a Starter

Most quarterbacks that start early in their careers are first round draft picks- often top of the first round- and are expected to start as a rookie. There have been several exceptions like Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, but for the most part quarterbacks drafted in the first round started as rookies. But whether as a rookie or later on, young quarterbacks in their first season faced a steep learning curve and often poor circumstances in terms of coaching and supporting cast.

Luckily for J.J. McCarthy, he will avoid some of the pitfalls young quarterbacks face in their first season as a starter as his team made the playoffs last season and is coming off a 14-3 record. He will begin with one of the best supporting casts any quarterback has had since Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Lamar Jackson in 2019. Both of those second-year quarterbacks won the league MVP award in those years, despite having limited starts prior to those seasons (Mahomes has just one start his rookie year and Jackson had seven).

Be that as it may, I thought it would be more appropriate for comparison purposes to look only at quarterbacks in their first full season as a starter (whether rookie year or later) who began in a “good situation” when it comes to supporting cast and coaching.

The chart above includes 27 quarterbacks who were drafted into “good” situations, although that is always a bit subjective. You can quibble about who is included or left out, but a few additions or subtractions are unlikely to change the average numbers much for these quarterbacks in their first full season as the starter.

Also provided are Sam Darnold’s numbers last year for comparison.

If you add in a bit of an era adjustment for quarterbacks in the earlier half of this list, and assume J.J. McCarthy is able to play a 17-game season when it comes to total passing yards, Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and that McCarthy has a better set of receivers than most on this list (or maybe all), that more or less gets you to Darnold’s numbers last season.

And so Darnold’s numbers last season should be the baseline expectation for McCarthy this season, even though he’s effectively a second-year rookie. McCarthy may also enjoy a better offensive line this season compared to Darnold last season, which also helps.

Overall, that baseline is a high expectation for a quarterback who has yet to take a snap in an NFL regular season game, but if McCarthy is as talented as advertised, he should be able to get there. Undoubtedly there will be growing pains during the season as he adjusts to the NFL game and speed, but with good coaching and a good supporting cast from offensive line and receivers to running backs and defense, McCarthy couldn’t ask for a better situation to prove himself.

If McCarthy falls significantly short of Darnold’s numbers, that could signal a longer learning curve for McCarthy and/or a lower ceiling. But so far there hasn’t been anything to indicate that. Instead, it wouldn’t be surprising if McCarthy achieved something in the neighborhood of Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud in his first year as a starter, and maybe even more in terms of total passing yards.

Reviewing McCarthy’s Preseason Game

In his only preseason game last season, which isn’t much to go on, McCarthy looked well prepared and at ease- it wasn’t too big for him and he didn’t seem flustered by the NFL game, albeit a preseason one with more basic defensive concepts and facing a mix of starters and backups.

Below is a good review and analysis of that game from last year:

In that small preseason sample size, McCarthy demonstrated that he can make all the throws, was able to navigate the pocket and get the ball out on time, even in the face of an impending hit. He also made a play or two with his legs. He made a bad decision/throw that resulted in an interception, but it wasn’t because he failed to identify the coverage or didn’t have the arm to make the throw, it was a combination of not a great route, not a great decision, and not a great throw. Young quarterbacks have some of those as they figure out the limits of what they’re capable of and what they’re not.

But even though it was a small preseason sample size, there were not signs of holding the ball too long/processing issues, accuracy problems, lack of poise/pocket awareness, or misreading coverage. And those are problems that can plague young quarterbacks and often result in disappointing results for a top pick.

And while McCarthy was unable to get the reps as a backup you would expect during the season last year due to his injury, he was able to experience what goes into the work week for a starting NFL quarterback, from preparation and practice to game day and recovery, so that should help him acclimate to the NFL and his role as a starter this season. He’ll also have a full off-season program, training camp, and preseason as QB1, which should give him plenty of reps and opportunity to adjust and grow into the NFL game and get familiar with his supporting cast on the field.

The Big ‘It’

Beyond the baseline expectations for McCarthy this year, the bigger question is whether he has the all-important ‘it’ factor when it comes to winning and contending for a championship. Of course we won’t know the answer to that until the season gets underway and we have a chance to see McCarthy play in the heat of the moment with the game on the line, but he does have a history in college of meeting those moments in key game situations that make all the difference but are difficult to distill from stats alone.

For McCarthy, the key to bringing out that ‘it’ factor and swagger is to prepare him well and give him the supporting cast that allows him the comfort and opportunity to make those plays in critical situations that often make the difference between winning and losing and generate a positive effect across the team and organization.

Only time will tell if McCarthy is able to be that type of quarterback every first-round pick is hoped to be, but what factors the Vikings can control, they have put in place to give McCarthy the best opportunity for success of any quarterback in his draft class, if not any draft class.

Stay tuned.