The Philadelphia 76ers made the biggest splash of the NBA offseason by landing Paul George, who will replace longtime forward Tobias Harris.
George's arrival brings excitement to the City of Brotherly Love, but will it be enough to end the 76ers' championship drought that dates to 1983?
Let's break down the George-Harris swap and its potential impact, examining their offensive and defensive contributions before assessing whether this move pushes the 76ers over the top or merely nudges them closer to the summit.
Offense
On paper, George boasts superior offensive stats compared to Harris. For the Los Angeles Clippers last season, George averaged 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists. Meanwhile, Harris — who signed with the Detroit Pistons in free agency — averaged 17.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists.
However, context is crucial. Harris played with Joel Embiid, who would have had the highest usage rate in the league at 39.6% if he had played enough games to qualify, and Tyrese Maxey, who was 26th in the NBA in that category (28%).
George, however, often shared offensive responsibilities with James Harden and Kawhi Leonard, clocking in with a 26.6% usage rate. Playing alongside Embiid and Maxey, George probably will have less of an offensive load, potentially lowering his scoring average.
A key selling point for George’s immediate offensive impact in Philly is his ability to act as pressure valve for Embiid when teams load up on him. PG13 has built a reputation as a dynamic one-on-one scorer, but his efficiency in those situations has dipped as he’s slid out of his prime. Last season, he shot 43.5% in isolation on 3.5 attempts per game while Harris connected at 44.5% in man-to-man situations.
Where George truly shines is his three-point shooting. He hit an impressive 41.3% of his deep shots last season compared to Harris' 35.3%. Sometimes we get lost in percentages and don't realize their actual in-game results.
Let's quantify the difference between the shooting of George and Harris: Assuming both players take five three-point attempts per game this season, hitting at the same clip, George would score roughly 0.9 more points per contest from beyond the arc. Here's the math:
- George: 41.3% on five attempts = 6.2 PPG
- Harris: 35.3% on five attempts = 5.3 PPG
- Difference: 0.9 PPG defense
Defense
George is a four-time All-Defensive selection, but he last received that honor in 2018-19. Harris, meanwhile, has quietly developed into a solid defensive wing capable of guarding bigs on the block and wings out on the perimeter.
Last season, George held his assignments to 2.6% below their average shooting mark. Meanwhile, Harris limited them to -1.7%. However, a closer look reveals that George often guarded less prominent scorers, whereas Harris routinely faced top offensive threats.
George's top five covers by possession during the 2023-24 season (teams noted are last season's):
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets): 111.4 possessions
- RJ Barrett (Knicks/Raptors): 69.8 possessions
- Bradley Beal (Suns): 63.7 possessions
- Brandon Ingram (Pelicans): 63.2 possessions
- Klay Thompson (Warriors): 57.4 possessions
Harris' top five covers by possession during the 2023-24 season (teams noted are last season's):
- Paolo Banchero (Magic): 100.1 possessions
- Kyle Kuzma (Wizards): 86.7 possessions
- Jayson Tatum (Celtics): 85.7 possessions
- Miles Bridges (Hornets): 84.8 possessions
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): 80.7 possessions
Harris wasn't just a distraction on defense. He held Banchero, Kuzma, Tatum and Bridges to a 45% or below shooting mark, with only Antetokounmpo proving a tougher matchup at 63.6%.
The verdict
The arrival of George, 34, signals an upgrade over Harris, 32.
A nine-time All-Star with a smooth three-point stroke, George launched 588 shots from beyond the arc last season (11th in the NBA). His proficiency from deep on high volume will create more space in the post for Embiid and open driving lanes for Maxey to exploit.
Still, his presence isn't the seismic shift some might expect. Although Harris has never made an All-NBA team and his contract might have been inflated, he’s not a replacement-level role player. Suiting up alongside a minimum of two ball-dominant stars, he had his numbers suppressed, but during his past five years in Philly from 2019-20 to 2023-24, he garnered 30.8 Win Shares, much higher than George’s 23.2 over that same time period. (Win Shares is Basketball-Reference.com's estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player.)
Defensively, George faces a new challenge. He'll be tasked with guarding the opponents' best perimeter player, a role he hasn't consistently filled in recent years. Will the 34-year-old George reliably shut down elite scorers?
George won’t shift the needle enough for the 76ers to suddenly become favorites in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics look like a juggernaut, and the Knicks are on the rise with Jalen Brunson morphing into an MVP candidate and the addition of Mikal Bridges.
Much like last season, Philly will head into a playoff series against either team as an underdog.
