What recent draft history says about Jeffrey Bassa's odds of proving the Chiefs right

The Kansas City Chiefs have officially wrapped up their OTAs and mandatory minicamp for the 2025 offseason. That means the Chiefs’ new rookie class now has some practices under their belts and has started to make its first impressions on the team. One of the rookies who turned some heads was linebacker Jeffrey Bassa, whom Kansas City selected in the fifth round. Nick Bolton even went out of his way to compliment the rookie.

How often do 5th round linebackers like Jeffrey Bassa hit?

While offseason buzz is always nice, we've seen plenty of "camp stars" flop when the actual games start. So what does recent draft history say about the success rate of linebackers taken in the 5th round? To answer that question, I looked at the ten draft classes between 2014–2023. With it being a little too soon to judge the 2024 draft class, that gave me the most recent ten-year sample to go off of.

In those ten drafts, there were 50 linebackers taken. Those players were:

2014:

• Telvin Smith - Jacksonville Jaguars
• Avery Williamson - Tennessee Titans
• Jeremiah George - New York Jets
• Lamin Barrow - Denver Broncos
• Marquis Spruill - Atlanta Falcons
• Ronald Powell - New Orleans Saints
• Jordan Tripp - Green Bay

2015:

• Ben Heeney - Oakland Raiders
• Martrell Spaight - Washington Commanders
• Davis Tull - New Orleans Saints
• Neiron Ball - Oakland Raiders
• David Mayo - Carolina Panthers
• D.J. Alexander - Kansas City Chiefs

2016:

• Kentrell Brothers - Minnesota Vikings
• Antwione Williams - Detroit Lions
• Jatavis Brown - San Diego Chargers

2017:

• Blair Brown - Jacksonville Jaguars
• Jayon Brown - Tennessee Titans
• Anthony Walker - Indianapolis Colts
• Matt Milano - Buffalo Bills
• Marquel Lee - Oakland Raiders
• Ukeme Eligwe - Kansas City Chiefs

2018:

• Shaquem Griffin - Seattle Seahawks
• Ja'Whaun Bentley - New England Patriots
• Micah Kiser - Los Angeles Rams
• Jermaine Carter - Carolina Panthers

2019:

• Ben Burr-Kirven - Seattle Seahawks
• Ryan Connelly - New York Giants
• Vosean Joseph - Buffalo Bills
• Dre Greenlaw - San Francisco 49ers
• Mack Wilson - Cleveland Browns
• Blake Cashman - New York Jets
• Cameron Smith - Minnesota Vikings
• E.J. Speed - Indianappolis Colts
• Cole Holcomb - Washington Commanders

2020:

• Khaleke Hudson - Washington Commanders
• Kamal Martin - Green Bay Packers
• Justin Strnad - Denver Broncos

2021:

• Tony Fields - Cleveland Browns
• Garret Wallow - Houston Texans
• Camerone McGrone - Indianapolis Colts

2022:

• Micah McFadden - New York Giants
• D'Marco Jackson - New Orleans Saints
• Damone Clark - Dallas Cowboys

2023:

• Yasir Abdullah - Jacksonville Jaguars
• Noah Sewell - Chicago Bears
• SirVocea Dennis - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Henry To'aTo'o - Houston Texans
• Owen Pappoe - Arizona Cardinals

The overall hit rate of landing a starter in the 5th round of the NFL Draft for all positions is about 15%. So even if you just land a solid depth piece or special teams contributor, history says that is a good use of a 5th-round pick. I went through all 50 of those players and divided them into four categories: misses, special teams players, contributors, and starters.

For clarification, misses are guys who never really contributed in the NFL in any meaningful way. Special teams players are guys who pretty much only contributed on special teams but did so throughout their rookie deal and maybe even onto a second contract. Contributors are players who played both on special teams and on defense but never really established themselves as full-time or multi-year starters. Starters are guys who have been starters for multiple seasons.

As expected, a few of these were judgment calls between two of the categories, but this is how I ended up categorizing the 50 linebackers drafted in the 5th round between 2014–2023:

16 Misses (32%)

• Jeremiah George
• Lamin Barrow
• Marquis Spruill
• Ronald Powell
• Ben Heeney
• Ukeme Eligwe
• Martrell Spaight
• Neiron Ball
• Davis Tull
• Antwione Williams
• Blair Brown
• Shaquem Griffin
• Vosean Joseph
• Cameron Smith
• Kamal Martin

16 Special Teams Players (32%)

• Jordan Tripp
• David Mayo
• D.J. Alexander
• Marquel Lee
• Micah Kiser
• Ryan Connelly
• Khaleke Hudson
• Justin Strnad
• Tony Fields
• Garret Wallow
• Cameron McGrone
• D'Marco Jackson
• Yasir Abdullah
• Noah Sewell
• SirVocea Dennis
• Owen Pappoe

5 Contributors (10%)

• Jatavis Brown
• Jermaine Carter
• Mack Wilson
• E.J. Speed
• K.J. Britt

13 Starters (26%)

• Telvin Smith
• Avery Williamson
• Kentrell Brothers
• Jayon Brown
• Anthony Walker
• Matt Milano
• Ja'Whaun Bentley
• Dre Greenlaw
• Blake Cashman
• Cole Holcomb
• Micah McFadden
• Damone Clark
• Henry To'aTo'o

First off, the fact that the overall hit rate for landing a starter in the 5th round for all positions is 15% and 26% of linebackers taken in the 5th round over this ten-year period started for multiple seasons is encouraging. Then, if you add together the starters, contributors, and special teams players, you get 68% of linebackers taken in the 5th round who contributed in some way at the NFL level. That is great odds for the 5th round.

In today's pass-happy NFL, there is more of an emphasis on pass rushers and getting extra defensive backs on the field. That has dropped the value of traditional linebackers and caused them to fall deeper into drafts. I believe that is why you see a much higher percentage of starting-caliber players making it into the 5th round than at most other positions.

The hit rate for a starting player is still just about one in four, so it is no lock that Jeffrey Bassa will become a starting linebacker. However, when you look at recent history and see that nearly 70% of linebackers taken in the 5th round contributed at the NFL level in some way and add that to the positive reports about Bassa from OTAs and minicamp, you have to feel really good about his chances of validating his draft pick.

If you enjoyed this piece and haven't read the others in my series on KC's 2025 draft class, you can check them out at the links below. Look for the final piece in the series on Brashad Smith and 7th-round running backs coming soon!