In the chaos of the SEC’s middle tier, South Carolina is a primary agent.
This team whipped Kentucky, 31-6, in Week 2 before taking a 27-3 beating from the Ole Miss team the Wildcats upset the week before. It was in control of a game it lost to LSU, 36-33, two weeks after escaping with a 23-19 win over Old Dominion.
The Gamecocks are capable of many things. Now it faces a wounded Alabama program a week after a wild swing of its own. Beat No. 2 Georgia one week, lose to Vanderbilt the next.
So what gives?
Vegas clearly isn’t sounding the alarm bells, at least not for this one setting the Crimson Tide as a three-touchdown favorite for the second-straight week. Alabama was a 22.5-point favorite last week.
In light of that, no game will feel safe for the Crimson Tide for some time to come. When you boil it down, this is about matchups. Vanderbilt exploited its advantages to close perfection a week ago.
Can South Carolina?
Best case scenario for Alabama: Establish the ground game
This is a Crimson Tide offense that’s claimed headlines for the play of dynamic quarterback Jalen Milroe and teen sensation Ryan Williams. Both are legitimate stars and scoring has not been an issue, even in defeat.
Offense is about more than the bottom-line number because it’s about the parts that fit together. The number that slapped you in the face at Vanderbilt was 17:52 in possession time (compared to the host’s 42:08). What’s nuts: Alabama’s record books don’t have any opponent reaching 40 minutes of possession time in school history.
Key to that was Alabama’s 21 rushing attempts (to Vandy’s 54).
For a second straight week, the Tide ground game was an afterthought, namely, with the running backs. Jam Miller and Justice Haynes combined for just 11 carries and 68 yards with a long of 32 from Miller. Playing from behind on every offensive snap isn’t conducive for a ground-and-pound afternoon but the Tide doesn’t figure to spot the Gamecocks 13 points right off the jump.
The Miller-Haynes combo wasn’t a big part of the Georgia game either. Miller ran it five times (8 yards) while Haynes had six tries for 35 yards as Milroe took centerstage with a 16-carry, 117-yard night. But that’s on tape now. Establishing a ground presence with the backs will be key not just for Saturday but for giving opposing defenses of the future (like Tennessee) something else to consider outside of the Heisman candidate at quarterback and the prodigy receiver.
South Carolina brings the nation’s 32nd-best run defense, allowing 111.2 yards per game. Ole Miss averaged 3.4 yards on 41 carries last week while LSU had the best average (4.1) in 32 tries on Sept. 14.
Both Miller and Haynes have shown they can make plays. They weren’t always in the best position to make them the last few weeks but Saturday against South Carolina feels like a good time for that to return.
Worst-case scenario: South Carolina learned from Vandy
Let’s get this clear, Diego Pavia is a one-of-one quarterback. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers is a fine player but he’s not Pavia, South Carolina doesn’t run the same offense and the Gamecocks didn’t have an open week to prep for Alabama.
Sellers, however, has the ability to run the ball and create the kind of matchup issues that plagued Alabama and its linebackers a week ago. He broke a 75-yarder against LSU and netted 55 yards on 15 attempts last week against Ole Miss.
Speaking to reporters in Columbia this week, Sellers said he took note of what worked for Pavia against the Tide. His physicality was one. “They just played with an edge about them,” Sellers said. “We have to go there and do that.”
South Carolina hasn’t been quite as efficient in the place that haunted Alabama’s defense the most in Nashville. The Gamecocks arrive with the nation’s 122nd-best third-down offense. It converts on only 30% of its attempts, with a season-high 35.7% (4-for-15) against Akron. Those aren’t in Vanderbilt’s range after the Commodores hit on 66.7% (12 of 18) to contribute to that record-breaking possession time.
But if Sellers and the South Carolina coaching staff (that includes that Mike Shula) can scheme up something to exploit the middle of the field, this game gets more interesting. Now, the Gamecocks haven’t had the most explosive passing attack as it arrives ranked 110th nationally (176.0 yards per game). Vanderbilt, it should be noted, did its damage with the 94th-ranked passing game.
Prediction: Alabama 35, South Carolina 13
The Gamecocks just don’t have the offense to keep pace and Alabama would probably want to shrink the game with Tennessee up next.
