Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings are amid a fairytale season. After a gritty 27-25 win over the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings moved to 14-2. They will head to Detroit on Sunday night to battle the Lions for the NFC’s number one seed.
Regardless of that result, the Vikings will play in the postseason and be one of the Super Bowl favorites. Many factors are in play when looking at the Vikings’ success. Kevin O’Connell is an offensive mastermind, Brian Flores is leading an elite defense, the weapons on offense are arguably the league’s best, and Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard are an elite pass-rush duo. But the man leading this offense, Sam Darnold, has been the key to why Minnesota is where they are.
The Sam Darnold Affect
Darnold is having an MVP-level season. The journeyman quarterback has 4,153 yards for 35 touchdowns while completeing 68.1% of his passes. He also just broke the quarterback record for most wins on a new team. If the NFL had a most improved player award, Darnold would win it.
Darnold was drafted to be the Jets franchise quarterback in 2018. After three seasons the Jets shipped him off to the Carolina Panthers. After another disappointing stint Darnold sat for a season behind Brock Purdy in San Fransisco. After Kirk Cousins departed in free agency the Vikings gave Darnold a shot signing him to a one year $10 million deal.
But Darnold wasn’t the guaranteed started in Minnesota. The Vikings selected Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy tenth overall in the draft. Darnold was seen as a one-year bridge then McCarthy would take over the team. But McCarthy suffered a torn meniscus in preseason, ending his rookie season before it began.
So with Darnold’s competition out for the season, Darnold took the starting job and ran with it. Despite how the 2024 season ends the Vikings will have a serious quarterback controversy in 2025.
Will Darnold Be Back?
At first glance it seems like bringing Darnold back in 2025 is a no brainer. Why would you let an MVP candidate walk away with such a talented roster around him? Well simply, Sam Darnold is playing so well he may price himself out of Minnesota.
USA Today projects Darnold to receive a three year $110 million deal this offseason. That average out at just under $37 million a season. Minnesota has just over $78 million in 2025 cap space, so they can afford to keep him, but is it worth it?
Although Darnold has always shown promise in the league, 2024 is the first season where he’s really found success. So the question needs to be asked, has Darnold finally broken out, or is he a product of Kevin O’Connell’s system?
Kevin O’Connell
O’Connell was hired as the Vikings head coach in 2022. He was brought in after a wildly successful stint as the Rams’ offensive coordinator, meaning he comes from the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay coaching tree. Coaches from that tree have historically had success with average quarterbacks, and O’Connell is no outlier.
Since taking over O’Connell has produced some high-level quarterback play outside of Darnold. In 2022 Kirk Cousins passed for 4,547 yards and 29 touchdowns, at that was just year one in O’Connell’s scheme. In year two, Cousins was a leading MVP candidate eight games in before suffering a season ending injury. In those eight games Cousins’ passed for 2,331 yards and 18 touchdowns. And after Cousins went down O’Connell was still able to squeeze out a seven win season with Jaren Hall, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens as the replacements.
2025 Vikings Outlook
So despite having the money to sign Darnold to a long -term extension, should the Vikings rely on their first round pick and Kevin O’Connell’s system and spend the $78 million elsewhere? The answer lies in how much they trust J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy is only 21 years old, so if he sat he’d be 24 when he makes his first start. For reference fellow rookies Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, and Michael Penix are all 24 years old.
On paper the best decision would be for the Vikings to franchise tag Darnold. A franchise tag means no long-term commitment and Minnesota gets one more year to evaluate Darnold. But franchise tags have become a tricky thing in the modern NFL, so more likely than not Minnesota will have to make a decision on Darnold this offseason.
There are many quarterback needy teams who would be more than willing to pay Darnold. But after a historic season and a chance and the Lombardi Minnesota should be more than willing to pay Darnold. McCarthy can wait and takeover when the time’s righ. And who knows, if the Vikings play their cards right they could be opening a very long Super Bowl window.
