As we are three weeks until the NFL Draft , the Minnesota Vikings are a peculiar team to nail down.
One of the reasons why they are hard to predict is how balanced the roster is right now. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did a great job in free agency filling all of the major needs, especially in the trenches. It leaves a multitude of options for the Vikings at the 24th overall pick.
Last week, I wrote about Adofo-Mensah's history in the first round of the NFL Draft and it showed some interesting signal on what they could do this year at 24th overall. It's an interesting group of data points, but how certain are we that it will translate?
Why Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could draft a G5 player
Over the course of his tenure as the Vikings general manager, Adofo-Mensah has not taken many players that don't play in a power four conference. If you don't count 2023 fifth-round quarterback Jaren Hall (BYU was independent in 2022, joined Big 12 in 2023), the Vikings have only taken two players not in a power four conference:
- 2023: UAB RB DeWayne McBride: seventh-round pick
- 2024: Texas A&M Commerce DT Levi Drake Rodriguez: seventh-round pick
It is something that Adofo-Mensah likely picked up from his mentor Cleveland Browns general manager Andrew Berry, who has some rigid thresholds when it comes to taking players at the top of the draft.
Through four first-round picks and five top-50 picks, he's yet to take a player that hasn't played on both a power four team or one that hasn't won a National Championship over the last 20 years. The real question here, since there are less top G5 prospects is this:
Did Adofo-Mensah realistically have a player they could have taken at that spot from a G5 program? Let's look at all four first round picks
- 2022: The Vikings took Georgia safety Lewis Cine at 32nd overall. The next two picks were defensive lineman Logan Hall and wide receiver Christian Watson, a pick the Vikings traded to the Green Bay Packers. The next 18 picks were from power four schools
- 2023: The Vikings took Jordan Addison at 23rd overall. The next eight picks to finish the first round were all from power four institutions.
- 2024: The Vikings took J.J. McCarthy at 10th overall with only one other quarterback being considered in the first round (Bo Nix from Oregon). The Vikings also took Dallas Turner with a move up to 17th overall. The only player the rest of the first round from a G5 school was Quinyon Mitchell, who was 15th in the Vikings' mock draft tracker from 2024.
When we look at the history, the Vikings have realistically had three chances to draft a G5 player in the first round, as all three were at positions of need. How much stock can we put into it?
I do believe there is some signal, but it's definitely not the most rigid due to the lack of G5 high-end talent. Getting more data at the position will provide us with a better answer, but it's a signal for the time being.
