Two is a coincidence, three is a trend -- and the Atlanta Falcons' 36-30 overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night gives them an identity rooted in trends.
The Falcons are now 3-2, and they've overcome slim odds in each of their three wins.
In a 22-21 triumph over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2, Atlanta had a 1% chance of victory inside of two minutes. Two weeks later, kicker Younghoe Koo's career-long 58-yard field goal lifted the Falcons to a 26-24 win against the New Orleans Saints, during which Atlanta's odds of victory was at 15.5% with 41 seconds remaining.
But again, twice is a coincidence.
After Thursday night, when the Falcons had just a 7% chance of pulling a win at home with 22 seconds left in regulation and still found a way, their late-game heroics are more than coincidences.
Instead, it's a budding identity.
"I'm sure the percentages were very slim for us to go back, but that's just the definition of this team," All-Pro safety Jessie Bates III said after the game. "Never give up. Just tough ass dudes around this whole locker room that's never wavering. I'm just excited for that."
The Falcons have long been known for struggling to finish games. It was one of the biggest downfalls in Dan Quinn's head coaching tenure, which went from 2015 through the first five games of 2020. Atlanta was 4-6 in one-score games in 2023, with three losses in a six-week stretch occurring inside the final minute for Arthur Smith's team.
First-year head coach Raheem Morris has often noted that NFL games typically come down to one score. Each of the Falcons' five games thus far have been decided on the final possession. Atlanta could be 0-5, though Morris said he feels unfortunate he's not undefeated.
Such a mindset is central to the Falcons' culture shift. They don't just want to win close games, they expect to. And they know they need to if they want to snap a six-year playoff drought, tied for the third-longest in the NFL.
"That's what it comes down to," safety Justin Simmons said postgame. "You're not going to go into every win winning by 10, 14-plus -- it's going to come down to who can execute at the end. Thankfully, our offense has been in that position and has won the game for us.
"There will be games down the road where defense is going to have to go get a two-minute stop and go win the game."
The Falcons played complementary football in their wins in Weeks 4 and 5.
Against New Orleans, Atlanta failed to scored an offensive touchdown but took a victory after finding the endzone on both defense and special teams.
Hosting the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football, the Falcons' defense allowed 24 points in the first half and 30 overall, but Atlanta's offense totaled 550 net yards, its most since 2016.
The Falcons are searching for a complete team effort. Yet while their voyage rolls forward, they're winning -- with a variety of methods.
"We're finding different ways to win and we're winning early," Simmons said. "It's a good confidence builder for us."
When Morris met with the team for the first time this April, his message centered around running the NFC South. Through two early-season tests, the Falcons are undefeated in the division and currently sit atop the standings.
Winning one-score games is important. Winning them against division and conference foes is even moreso.
"You don't want to let these games get away from you," Simmons said. "Down the road, things just get so tight in the race to the playoffs. If you're not winning your division, then you've got to look at the other divisional wins in the NFC, and then in your conference, how many divisional wins you have. So, these are huge for us early on."
Atlanta hasn't finished with a winning record since the 2017 season, also its last playoff appearance. The Falcons are back in the national spotlight this year due in large part to the addition of Cousins, a four-time Pro Bowl signal caller whose presence alone elevated the organization's expectations.
With greater expectations came more national intrigue, and the Falcons played in three primetime games over the first five weeks. There's been an adjustment period for returning players as a result.
While eating his meal at the team hotel before the Tampa Bay game, Cousins spoke with one of Atlanta's second-year players, who noted he hadn't played in a Thursday night game before. Cousins, meanwhile, had played in 10.
The interaction reminded Cousins how young some of his teammates are. Playing under the lights of primetime is significant for them. So is winning in those environments -- and Cousins believes Atlanta's success is helping it build in the right direction.
Still, the long-term effect on the team's psyche remains to be seen.
"We've got to go prove we're building character and we can build on it," Cousins said. "That's still out in front of us. We also found a way to lose one of those games against the Chiefs. It goes both ways. That's pro football."
Morris said he doesn't want to be the one who calls the Falcons a team of destiny -- only one team earns that honor each year, and he wants Atlanta to do that in Super Bowl LIX.
But for the Falcons to finish the season in New Orleans, where the Super Bowl takes place, they have to finish close games in the final minutes. The more they go through it, the more experience they'll add.
And the more they win, the more confidence they gain.
"Now, this team going into tight games, it's not like, 'I hope we win, I hope we win.' It's like, 'We've won these before, and we know someone's going to make a play,'" Simmons said. "It's just, 'Who's going to do it?' That's the biggest thing for us, and we'll just continue to keep building that moving forward."
However, just because Atlanta has proven it can win close games doesn't mean it wants to be forced to win in that fashion each week, second-year running back Bijan Robinson said
"It's great we're pulling out these wins," Robinson said. "I think we don't want these kind of games as much as we can -- I think we want to win the right way and not have to worry about coming down to the wire.
"But when both of us, offense and defense is doing our job the right way, hopefully we can get those big wins."
For now, though, the Falcons are focused only on winning. The 18-week marathon that is an NFL season will reach the one-third mark at 4:25 p.m. Sunday, when Atlanta takes on the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
Morris said before the season the Falcons, who have 17 new players on their 53-man roster, would find their identity during the year. They may not have found it yet -- but they're learning they have the toughness and composure to win when it matters.
And that alone may carry them further than anything.
"We're just building our resume right now and we're still finding out what team we are," Simmons said. "I'm liking where we're headed."
