At most NFL Drafts, landing a top-ten pick is a beautiful thing—even if it’s at the bottom of the top-ten.
To that end, over the last decade, the ten-spot has been a pretty darn good place to draft:
2024: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
- One sentence scoop: Theoretical starter-in-waiting.
2023: Darnell Wright, OT, Chicago Bears
- One sentence scoop: PFF’s 16th-ranked tackle.
2022: Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
- One sentence scoop: Three consecutive 1,000-plus-yard seasons.
2021: DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
- One sentence scoop: 27 career touchdowns for defending Super Bowl champs.
2020: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Cleveland Browns
- One sentence scoop: Career sidetracked due to knee surgery.
2019: Devin Bush, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
- One sentence scoop: Faded after his first four seasons.
2018: Josh Rosen, QB, Arizona Cardinals
- One sentence scoop: Bust.
2017: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
- One sentence scoop: He's pretty good.
2016: Eli Apple, CB, New York Giants
- One sentence scoop: PFF’s 16th-ranked cornerback.
2015: Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams
- One sentence scoop: Three-time Pro Bowler, 2015 Rookie of the Year, and 2017 Offensive Player of the Year.
Taking injuries out of the equation, this relatively large sample size tells us that there’s a 70-ish% chance a pick-ten prospect will grow into a solid, if not spectacular football player.
So the ten-spot is a great place to be.
Except for here in 2025.
Schefty’s Take
To paraphrase the old-school E.F. Hutton ad campaign, when ESPN’s Adam Schefter speaks, people listen.
As well they should. Dude's the king of the insiders.
In a nugget-filled NFL Draft intel breakdown, Schefter tells us that scouts feel the bottom-of-the-top of the first round is a movable feast:
“Multiple teams have said the player who will be drafted at No. 10 is the same quality as the player drafted at No. 32. It will be about each team's preference, but in the opinion of multiple personnel people, there is not a tremendous amount of difference.”
While he doesn’t specifically address the Chicago Bears’ needs, wants, or desires, the insinuation is there: Trade down.
Make a Move?
With the tenth pick and two second-round selections at his disposal, Bears GM Ryan Poles is in an ideal position to shake up days one and two of the draft.
And even though Schefer’s report tells us that an player at, say, pick 26 isn’t that much better or worse than an option at 10, there’s likely a team—or multiple teams—who have their heart set on nabbing an a need-filler who might be available when the Bears are on the clock, among them Penn State TE Tyler Warren, Michigan CB Will Johnson, or Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams.
Poles is a big fan of stockpiling picks, so he might bite on a deal with, say, Buffalo that would net Chicago the 30th pick—which falls into Schefty’s abovementioned 10-32 range—as well as a second rounder (56), a fourth rounder (109), and future considerations.
At 30, Poles might have a shot at Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart, Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr. , Mississippi DL Walter Nolen , all of whom have been, at various times during the draft cycle, mocked to Chicago at ten.
Or Poles could ship the tenth pick and Chicago’s third-rounder (72) to Cincinnati in exchange for their first-rounder (17) and disgruntled DE Trey Hendrickson. At 17, the Bears could then grab the likes of North Dakota State IOL Grey Zabel , North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton , or Alabama LB Jihaad Campbell .
Or he could trade down again and pick up even more early-day-two capital.
Whichever route Poles takes, according to Schefty, as long as he has a day one pick in his pocket—any day one pick—the Bears will be just fine.
