After back-to-back seasons of falling short in the Stanley Cup Final, it is not surprising to see that there will be a lot of continuity throughout the Edmonton Oilers lineup. With that said, beneath the surface there are some personnel changes that beget a number of interesting questions and options. Especially after the acquisition and signing of Isaac Howard, the Oilers will have some options in setting up next season’s lineup.
Let’s take a closer look at what the Oilers projected lineup might be next season.
Most likely forward lineup
Nugent-Hopkins—McDavid—Hyman
Podkolzin—Draisaitl—Savoie
Howard—Frederic—Mangiapane
Janmark—Henrique—Tomasek
Extras: Kapanen, Lazar, Philp, Hutson, Jones, Hamblin
One of the best lines over their time together, the long standing trio of Connor McDavid flanked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman will be reunited at some point next season. Beyond their established excellence, a down season does still weigh on perception. Though Hyman is coming off of injury, it seems that Nugent-Hopkins is earning more questions from the corners of Oil Country.
Some might bemoan very dollar out of place, choosing to view Nugent-Hopkins as an expensive third line centre. One who does not necessarily provide the defensive support that one would hope for behind McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, at that. In truth, Nugent-Hopkins should be thought of as a playmaking top-six winger at this point. Given the rising cap his contract seems quite favourable for the long run, especially given that he could still handle a more offence focused role centring a second line.
The question of who should be on Draisaitl’s wings
As usual a big question is who Draisaitl’s wingers will be. Vasily Podkolzin did not necessarily have the production, but seemed a good fit last season. Podkolzin plays heavy and does a lot of important dirty work, but will need to refine some skills over the summer to get as much of a chance to reprise the role. A healthy Trent Frederic might be able to seize a chance here.
While not necessarily an either or proposition, there might only be one spot for scoring wingers Issac Howard, Matthew Savoie, and Andrew Mangiapane on a Draisaitl’s line. Savoie is the Oilers best prospect, with speed and playmaking that would seem a great fit alongside Draisaitl. Howard might be just as good a prospect, and also brings a lot of speed. Howard is a bit more of a shooter to contrast with Savoie’s playmaking.
Mangiapane is more established, but might have a greater impact defensively. In this July outlook Savoie grabbing hold of this spot is ideal, and Mangiapane remains an effective option to give the third line more scoring punch, or pinch up when the lines are inevitably juggled. If McDavid and Draisaitl are loaded up on the same line, Mangiapane could be a great winger for Nugent-Hopkins.
Bottom-six centres a mixed bag
Among the interesting thoughts headed into next season is Frederic looking to establish himself as a centre. The incumbent Adam Henrique is taking his share of flack from the cap focused corners of Oil Country, but provides reliable defensive play despite waning production. David Tomasek is the wild card here, and his right shot does make a case. Perhaps two or more of these players might find themselves on a line together.
Noah Philp and Curtis Lazar provide some depth beyond this, giving the Oilers lots of options at centre. One of the hottest positions of the offseason, the Oilers have done extremely well to reinforce their team down the middle.
Savoie and Howard in the top-six
Slated to be the new kids in town, there will be a lot of intrigue surrounding how both Savoie and Howard fit into the lineup. Training camp and the preseason schedule will offer new levels of excitement across Oilers Country as the pair of prospective rookies get their feet wet. It will be easy for fans to get carried away hoping for the absolute best, but sometimes speed bumps will be inevitable along the way.
The best case scenario is that both are able to hit the ground running as top-six forwards. Savoie seems like a more natural fit alongside Draisaitl as more of a playmaker, while Howard’s shooting ability might be a better fit alongside McDavid. Perhaps, given the strength of Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman alongside McDavid, both Howard and Savoie could find themselves alongside Draisaitl.
Still, the skilled but slight wingers might leave some dimension to be desired. Players like Hyman and Podkolzin, who are willing and able to do some heavy lifting and dirty work, open up a lot of opportunities for more skilled players. A lineup with both Savoie and Howard in the top-six might look like this:
Howard—McDavid—Hyman
Podkolzin—Draisaitl—Savoie
Frederic—Nugent-Hopkins—Mangiapane
Janmark—Henrique—Tomasek
Savoie and Howard on the third line
In reality Savoie and Howard might have a harder time holding down regular roles in the top-six, let alone alongside McDavid and Draisaitl. The Oilers still might have a place for them in the lineup even if both fall short of these big time roles as rookies.
While Coach Kris Knoblauch might find it difficult to trust the skilled rookies in checking roles, the pair might team up on a line to give the Oilers added scoring depth. Their skills with the puck mean giving them a centre who can be more effective off the puck, including some of the dirty work in front of the net.
Although Henrique offers some defensive support, it is most likely Frederic who offers the most dimension to the duo. Frederic is not necessarily a defensive presence on his own, allowing the Oilers to build a complementary defensive unit in the bottom-six. Here is what a lineup with Savoie and Howard sharing a line in the bottom-six might look like:
Nugent-Hopkins—McDavid—Hyman
Podkolzin—Draisaitl—Mangiapane
Howard—Frederic—Savoie
Janmark—Henrique—Tomasek
How do the others fit in?
Though Savoie and Howard are trying to break through into the regular lineup, the Oilers have a number of other players on a similar journey. Quinn Hutson scored at a similar rate to Howard in the NCAA last season, though is not quite as heralded a prospect. His brothers’ NHL success might offer some hope the skilled winger can make the jump as well.
Viljami Marjala is a fringe option who has some playmaking and puck skills as well, but sits behind Savoie, Howard, and Hutson at this point. Roby Jarventie is a bigger body, but is a skilled offensive player. Unfortunately he has been injured a lot in recent seasons, which might continue to take him out of the lineup altogether.
Noah Philp got a look last season, and has the tools to be an NHLer. With his size and skating, Philp might be able to handle a spot at centre, where his right shot would be useful. Curtis Lazar joins as backup, a versatile fourth line option that can cycle through. Josh Samanski is further down the depth chart, and like Marjala will need to show progress in the AHL before getting consideration.
Kasperi Kapanen might push his way into a regular spot from the outset, playing the best hockey of his career. There has been a willingness to embrace his role away from the puck, particularly on the forecheck, which is quite useful. Max Jones is more punishing, but will be further down the depth chart.
The Oilers have many good options
There are some acknowledgments to make. Coach Knoblauch clearly likes to scramble and jumble his forward lines, meaning that all three of these looks and more might be true within a game. Based on circumstance, we should expect to see a multitude of looks from the Oilers.
Second is that the Oilers clearly have a wealth of forward depth, especially if both Savoie and Howard are ready to contribute. The Oilers should be able to handle a variety of injuries throughout the season, and will give Knoblauch a lot of potential options. Over the season Savoie and Howard will both experience some growing pains, and thus their icetime might ebb and flow. Especially Howard, who has yet to play any professional hockey, might have some tougher stretches.
In all, GM Stan Bowman has injected a lot of speed into the lineup after the Oilers lost Dylan Holloway and Ryan McLeod last season.
What to expect of defensive pairings
Ekholm—Bouchard
Nurse—Walman
Kulak—Emberson
Extras: Stecher, Leppanen, Regula, Stillman
While Knoblauch consistently changes up his forward lines, he has seemed to prefer keeping his defensive pairings intact for longer stretches. There is a lot of familiarity on the Oilers blueline, without much by way of new additions. Still, with playoff regular John Klingberg gone, there remains some questions about how the team will line up.
Questioning Ekholm’s availability
The first question comes from Mattias Ekholm, who is into his late 30s. Ekholm fought valiantly to get back into the playoff lineup, as much of his season was riddled with injury. Although some of his performances can be forgiven under those circumstances, there might be some concern that age is stealing some of his quality in general as well.
Perhaps, even if age is catching up to Ekholm, his chemistry with Evan Bouchard will be enough to keep the duo together. If Ekholm is starting to fall off, or if injuries continue to limit him, Brett Kulak is the most logical option to replace him. Ekholm is the most stable of the other left shot options, who did some strong work with Bouchard last season while Ekholm was out.
Either way, Bouchard is the top defenceman on the team. Whoever is paired up with him will have to provide a defensive conscience to best support his offensive style of play. While Ekholm has been incredibly important for Bouchard’s development, it is inevitable that Bouchard will have to take the lead without such an incredible partner at some point.
Options for Nurse
Since signing his current contract, Nurse has been a hot topic across Oil Country. Obviously his contract is higher than fans would like, but often this fact blinds fans to how integral he still is to this team. Nurse led all Oilers defencemen in shifts during the playoffs, as often Bouchard’s icetime stats are inflated by long shifts on the power play or at the end of games in offensive situations. Despite the fact that an ideal partner remains elusive, Oilers coaches continue to depend on Nurse.
Nurse brings a lot of strong qualities to ice, a physical edge, size, skating, as well as a good enough shot to chip in offensively. He was second on the Oilers in both goals and primary assists among defencemen in the playoffs last season. Still, Nurse appreciates some help on both sides of the puck, a responsible defender as well as someone who can ease the burden of breakout passes.
Troy Stecher is hardly considered a high end defenceman, but does provide some of the defensive traits that Nurse enjoys. Nurse might be among the better partners for Stecher league-wide, to be frank. Still, the Oilers might hope for more. Ty Emberson might be a reasonable partner, but does not quite appear ready for such an important role. Other right shots like Alec Regula even less so.
The Oilers would then be forced to play a left shot on their weak side, leaving Kulak and Jake Walman as options. Although he might fit the description, Kulak did not fare too well with Nurse last season, as his effectiveness might be limited on the right side. Walman might be the most intriguing option, providing the highest ceiling. Walman has played his weak side before, including on the penalty kill. While providing a lot of puck moving support for Nurse, Walman is physically stout. If the pairing can show some defensive chemistry, the Oilers might have a fantastic top-four defence group.
Who will fill the sixth defenceman spot?
With a clear top five of Bouchard, Ekholm, Nurse, Walman, and Kulak, the question for the Oilers becomes how to deploy them and who might fill the sixth spot. Of course, Stecher provides a lot of positives, but is truly only an option alongside Nurse.
The most likely candidate to fill the role is Emberson, who did have a lot of success with Kulak last season. Emberson was quickly swapped out in the playoffs, his first experience in that spotlight.
Perhaps his struggles were more to do with the team’s overall play than solely on his shoulders. Emberson provides some defensive qualities, though is not particularly physical or mean. Given his age and career trajectory there might still be some natural growth beyond getting more playoff experience.
Meanwhile, when healthy Regula should be able to push Josh Brown from his spot in the pecking order. Regula is still listed as month to month, essentially missing a year due to injury. Both provide a bit more size on the right side if need be. On the left the Oilers added Riley Stillman, who might be a safer call up option than the smaller and offensively inclined Cam Dinnen. Atro Leopanen might be the most interesting, a high scoring left shot making his North American debut. Leppanen is a bit of a wild card, but could force his way into the lineup if either Bouchard or Walman miss time.
