In past articles, I’ve argued that trading down is generally a good draft strategy, and it seems especially sensible given the Vikings’ lack of draft capital this year.
But ultimately, the Vikings’ strategy will depend not on general principles, but rather on the specifics of the 2025 draft class and the way the dominoes fall.
One particularly important aspect of the draft to keep an eye on is the late-first-round to mid-second-round talent cliffs at the Vikings’ positions of need. In general, a team wants to pick at the end of a talent plateau — right before a drop-off in talent — thereby minimizing the cost for one of a number of comparable prospects.
A great example of this came in the 2023 draft, when the Vikings selected Jordan Addison as the 4th consecutive wide receiver off the board. That season, the general consensus held that there were four WRs worthy of a first-round selection, so the Vikings managed to land one of the four with a minimal loss of draft capital.
Looking at this year’s big board, three talent plateaus stand out as the most relevant for the Vikings. At DT, three players are likely to go near the end of the first round: Kenneth Grant, Walter Nolan, and Derrick Harmon.
At IOL, Gray Zabel, Tyler Booker, and Donovan Jackson sit at 32, 34, and 36, respectively, in Arif Hasan’s consensus big board. Finally, at CB, a whopping five players land between 35 and 44 on the consensus big board: Shavon Revel Jr., Maxwell Hairston, Trey Amos, Azareye’h Thomas, and Benjamin Morrison.
These plateaus suggest that the Vikings could likely trade back into the late-first or even the late-second round and still select a prospect of comparable quality to one they’d obtain at pick 24.
On the other hand, there’s always a chance that a top 15 prospect like CB Will Johnson or S Malaki Starks falls to the Vikings, in which case they might be well-advised to stick and pick. Or, it may be that the Vikings can’t find a trade partner, and are stuck at 24 whether they like it or not.
Furthermore, this analysis assumes that the Vikings’ internal prospect rankings are close to the consensus board rankings. Recent history has shown that this isn’t necessarily the case.
For instance, in 2023, Vikings’ GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah selected Mekhi Blackmon in the late-third round: far earlier than his consensus board 6th-round grade. If the Vikings love one prospect and are lower on the rest available to them, they may not be so willing to trade back and hope their player falls.
So, it’s tough to predict what exactly the Vikings will do on draft day. But hey, that’s what makes the NFL draft so fun.
