You’ve probably been hearing a lot about former Vancouver Canucks defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson lately.
Of course, you have. He’s a Toronto Maple Leaf now.
And now just a Maple Leaf, but a Maple Leaf who is currently playing above expectations. After joining Toronto as a UFA this summer – fresh off a Stanley Cup victory – Ekman-Larsson has played eight games thus far in the 2024/25 season and has already earned five points while averaging just over 22 minutes a night. He’s not just playing in their top four; he’s thriving there, at least for the time being.
Ekman-Larsson scored his first as a Leaf the other night.
And even found himself at the centre of a classic ‘everyone is out to get us, even though we are actually heavily favoured’ Toronto controversy when he was fined (but not suspended) for this pretty obvious headshot…
Toronto is getting this whole package on a contract that pays him just $3.5 million a season over this and the next three years.
Long story short, OEL is a hit in the T.O. Which is obviously relevant here in this market, because the Leafs aren’t the only team paying Ekman-Larsson during the 2024/25 season. Due to buying him out previously, the Canucks are carrying a $2.347 million cap penalty for Ekman-Larsson this year – not too far off his cap hit – and next year that goes up to $4.767 million. That’s right, as of 2025/26, the Canucks will be paying OEL more than the Leafs are for OEL to star in Toronto.
Which, naturally, has led to some chatter about whether or not the Canucks made a mistake in buying out Ekman-Larsson in the first place. But that’s an argument that doesn’t really hold much water because all the Ekman-Larsson situation really proves is that NHL players just cannot be separated from the context of their contracts.
The Ekman-Larsson making $3.5 million in Toronto is simply not the same player who was making a combined $8.25 million annually (split between the Canucks and Arizona Coyotes) back in Vancouver.
The same could be said for Ekman-Larsson, who won the Cup with Florida on a one-year, $2.25 million contract last season. But, at least in that case, there was an argument to be made that Ekman-Larsson was just succeeding under less expectations, responsibilities, and spotlight. Down in Florida, OEL played just 18:24 a night in the regular season, the lowest ice time since his rookie campaign, and responded with 32 points, the most he’s had since the 2018/19 season.
Even there, the context of the contract was important, because it contributed to those lesser expectations, responsibilities, and spotlight.
He played even less, and probably better, in the postseason.
But now the situation in Toronto is drastically different.
Here, Ekman-Larsson has signed a much larger contract. He’s done so in possibly the most pressure-laden market in the sport. And not only is he playing well, he’s playing well in the exact same role that he floundered in back in Vancouver, that of a top-four two-way defender. Which is where we really arrive at that notion of the Canucks having made a mistake.
The operative question is this: Had they simply waited it out and not bought out Ekman-Larsson, would he have rounded out to this same form in Vancouver?
And the answer is no. Or, at least, almost certainly not.
There are some other factors at play. There is some word that Ekman-Larsson was suffering from a long-term injury in Vancouver that he has since fully recovered from. However, the contract is also an unignorable factor, perhaps the primary one. It was obvious to anyone who watched OEL in Vancouver and then saw him last year in Florida that this was a player who was formerly greatly burdened by a hefty contract and the expectations that came with it and then was suddenly free of that burden and responded in kind.
We’re not going to attempt to get into Ekman-Larsson’s head here. A pessimist might suggest that OEL didn’t put in as much effort in Vancouver due to the comfort brought on by such a high income. A more sympathetic person might suggest that it was the weight of the responsibilities associated with the pay that held OEL back, a desire to do more than he was able to.
Either way, the contract was a factor, which means that the current re-invention of OEL was not possible without getting rid of that contract. Which means the Ekman-Larssonissance was never going to happen in Vancouver.
He got to skate into Florida with bare minimal expectations and walk away with a Stanley Cup. He then arrived in Toronto with as reasonable a set of expectations as can ever be had in that city and a contract that was already described as a bargain.
Those were circumstances OEL was never going to encounter with the Canucks.
Thus, the Canucks still made the right call in buying out Ekman-Larsson. Just like the Panthers, and then the Maple Leafs, made the right call in giving him the second and third chances that the Canucks simply could not.
Again, it’s all proof that NHL players must always exist in the context of their contracts. And there’s further proof to be found in the somewhat parallel story of Tyler Myers.
We’re all pretty familiar with this tale. Back in the summer of 2019, Myers signed a five-year, $6 million average annual value (AAV) UFA deal with the Canucks, and immediately felt those personal expectations rise. His first season went fine enough, including that bubble playoff run. But by year two, the gaffes had become the story, and Myers was tagged with the dreaded descriptor of “overpaid” – which is a hard thing to shake. By 2021/22, Myers was firmly in goat territory, and we don’t mean in the way the kids say it.
But then a funny thing started to happen. Yes, Myers started to play much better as head coach Rick Tocchet took over. But another factor at play was that the big UFA contract Myers had signed was slowly, but surely, winding down when the deal still had four or five years left on it. It seemed like a weighty burden. But with just a year or two left? It became much more swallowable, and then so, too, did Myers play.
Bring it all the way to the present day, and Myers has since signed a second contract with the Canucks, this one for the next three seasons and a $3 million AAV, half of what he was making before. And, to be honest, Myers’ play thus far on 2024/25 isn’t quite up to snuff with his performance from the past year. But that doesn’t really matter because he’s no longer breaking any banks.
Myers has made the full evolution from an almost-hated figure to downright popular, and it’s largely due to the changing context of his contract.
Myers had the chance for his big contract to run out and then be replaced with a much smaller one, all without ever having to leave Vancouver. That was a chance that Ekman-Larsson, previously set to be on the books until 2027, just wasn’t ever going to receive.
Moving on from OEL wasn’t a wrong choice for the Canucks, because it was barely a choice. It was just an economic reality brought on by the context of his contract. There’s no use crying over spilled cap hits.
