Remember when Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said at the owners meeting on the last day of March that he could "certainly say with certainty at this certain moment" that Tyreek Hill would be on the roster in 2025?
Two weeks later, it sure feels as though it's not quite as certain anymore, doesn't it?
The mercurial wide receiver was not arrested as the result of his latest headline-making adventure, but it was just one more headache for a Dolphins organization that could be at its tipping point on terms of what it's willing to endure to have one of the most explosive players in the league on their roster.
At some point — and if the Dolphins have reached that point, they likely wouldn't say to hurt whatever trade value Hill has these days — the organization is going to decide that enough is enough, that moving on from Hill might produce addition by subtraction.
But it would cost the Dolphins, and not just because they would be losing their best player.
There would be a salary-cap price to pay, no matter how the Dolphins resolve the situation if they indeed decide it's time to end their relationship with Hill.
And that's, of course, because the team decided before the start of last season to restructure Hill's contract and guarantee him more money despite the fact the deal had three years left on it.
The Dolphins could have walked away from Hill fairly painlessly had the old deal still been in place, but now he's got $27.65 million guaranteed in 2025, per overthecap.com.
As such, Hill carries a 2025 cap number of $27.7 million, which is the second-highest on the team behind Tua Tagovailoa's $39.1 million.
What It Would Cost to Move On
There are four scenarios in play here related to Hill's cap number if the Dolphins make a move with him, and the choices would depend on whether the franchise wants to take all the cap hit this year or spread it out over the next two years.
-- If Hill is released before June 1, his cap number for 2025 will go from its current $27.7 million to $55.9 million but he'll be off the books in 2026.
-- If Hill is released with a post-June 1 designation, his cap number for 2025 will go to $40.4 million and he would count $15.5 million against the 2026 cap.
-- If Hill is traded before June 1, his cap number would go to $28.3 million for 2025 and then he'd be off the books.
-- If Hill is traded after June 1, his cap number would drop to $12.7 million for 2025 with the same $15.5 million against the 2026 cap.
The cap numbers all involve prorated portion of his signing bonus, with his contract currently featuring three void years.
It also should be noted that unlike players releases, the Dolphins can't trade Hill before the draft and make it a post-June 1 designation.
So if the idea is to move Hill for a pick or picks in the 2025 NFL draft, the trade would have to done the end of the draft April 26 and therefore the Dolphins would take the entire cap hit this year.
Another question when it comes to a trade is what the Dolphins realistically could expect to get for him.
And very obviously the latest episode isn't going to help.
Again, had it been an isolated incident, police being called to look into a domestic dispute might not be a huge deal with no charges being filed. But with Hill, it's just the latest in a series of unfortunate events, and that might make any team hesitant to give up a significant package in return, regardless of the impact Hill could have for a new team.
Any inquiring team would get Hill for a bargain this year financially because the Dolphins are on the hook for his signing bonus, but his base salary jumps from $10 million to almost $30 million in 2026, though it's no longer guaranteed after this year.
So there no doubt would be a renegotiation involved or a one-year rental, but in either case teams interested in Hill will have to decide most of all whether his talents are worth the potential headaches.
That, of course, is what the Dolphins have been pondering for a while, and maybe now more than ever.
