It would be very easy to refer back to the past, recent and distant, to discount any Bears chances of winning Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers.
Obviously 10 straight losses to Matt LaFleur-coached teams in 10 tries and the fact no one on the Bears roster has beaten Green Bay with this team speaks volumes.
Struggles and turmoil within the Bears' very core with their change of offensive coordinator says little for their chances to suddenly beat a division rival who constantly embarrasses them.
When you've failed to cover 10 straight games against an opponent and lost all of those games, it doesn't get any more dominant in the NFL.
Yet, the game is played by the players and the matchups matter. Circumstances can enter into it.
The Bears can come up with players who can surprise and turn it into an interesting game, if not an upset at Soldier Field.
Green Bay lost three times this season, so the method is on film.
Here are the Bears who can cause Green Bay the most problems in this matchup.
1. CB Jaylon Johnson
The Bears' top defensive player missed the second game in Green Bay last year, so Jordan Love has faced him only once and that was in last year's opener. Johnson, himself, wasn't the proven lockdown cornerback until that season progressed and he earned Pro Bowl status. Johnson will take away the side of the field he covers, it's that simple. Love will need to look elsewhere or risk throwing an interception. It's been a problem of his, with 10 so far. Johnson's passer rating against is at 53.3 according to Stathead/Pro Football Reference. He hasn't given up a touchdown pass this season.
2. DT Gervon Dexter
Rated 11th in pass rush win rate among defensive tackles according to ESPN, Dexter hasn't been as impactful in the last two games because opponents have gone effectively to the run to keep the Bears' defensive front off balance. But if Dexter gets the chance, he can be very disruptive to Green Bay's passing game. Love's biggest problem has always been to panic under interior pressure. He is a QB who likes to sidestep and move a bit in the pocket but is not necessarily a runner. When the pressure gets in his face and the pocket is closing in, he'll throw passes off his back foot. Dexter's impact in this game can be immense as he's going against the worst-ranked Packers offensive line pass blocker in second-year guard Sean Rhyan, according to Pro Football Focus' grades. Rhyan has actually been improved over last year in PFF grade but still is lower compared to other Packers linemen. The key to all of this is getting pressure on Love because he has a 102.5 passer rating if left unchecked, according to PFF.
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3. RB D'Andre Swift
Swift has remained effective throughout the Bears' offensive slide. They just haven't been focused on giving him thie opportunities the way they did earlier. He hasn't been below 51 yards rushing since Week 3. On top of that, he's likely to have both tackles blocking for him this week and both Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones rate in the top nine in the NFL in run-block win rate for tackles. The Packers are in their four-man front for the first season and not quite fully equipped to handle this scheme the way they should be in future years because they're using too many players acquired to fit into a 3-4 two-gap system. The way to attack them is by getting their front out of their gaps, and exploiting it with Swift or Roschon Johnson.
4. WR Keenan Allen
This is purely a matchup-based situation as Allen has the ability to be open if they time up their passing game in a way to let Caleb Williams see the available option. Allen, on many plays, will go against slot cornerback Keisean Nixon, who can be an extremely dangerous return man but has been beaten for three touchdowns and a 112.7 passer rating in his second full season of being entrusted with slot cornerback duties. This could be a week where Williams and Allen get back in sync in the short passing game.
5. T Darnell Wright
Although he'll have tough matchups against Green Bay pass rushers, the analytics of the situation favor the Bears right tackle in his return from a knee injury. He rates ninth in the NFL according to ESPN run block win rate. The Packers defense is giving up a league-worst 7.95 yards per rush attempt on runs over right tackle, according to NFLGSIS.com statistics. For Wright, it's pass blocking where the issue will lie because of his knee and seeing Rashan Gary coming off his side in the rush.
6. TE Cole Kmet
They'll tend to lean toward the run and passing more to tight ends because it's what happened in Brown's play-calling background when he had the job before, but it's a good place to go because Cole Kmet is capable and Packers linebackers haven't been the best pass defenders, particularly Quay Walker. Walker has a 47.7 overall defensive grade from PFF this year as he learns to adjust to new responsibilities. You could even see the much-promised emergence of Bears tight end Gerald Everett in 12-personnel in this one.
7. LB T.J. Edwards
The weakside linebacker helping to shut down the running game is a key in this defensive scheme and if the Bears are going to win they need to make Josh Jacobs irrelevant. A strong game from Edwards can do it. He has only two missed tackles this year in 75 attempts and wrapping up Josh Jacobs to bring him down will be essential. Edwards has four tackles for loss. The Packers live on first down by making second and third down easy. Edwards can turn those 6- or 7-yard gains into 3 or 4 yards and help leave Love facing difficult third-down conversions.
8. DE DeMarcus Walker
Montez Sweat will have to tangle with Green Bay's highest graded offensive lineman, right tackle Zach Tom. Rasheed Walker, on the other side, is not playing at quite the level he did last year and beyond that Walker is an excellent run defender. He does this better than he rushes the passer. Stopping the run will be the key for the Bears defense in this one because their secondary can do enough on its own accord to prevent the Packers from racing away from them, but if they can't stop the run they'll be toast before this game reaches halftime. And this did happen against Arizona.
