The easy, and frankly lazy, analysis of the Edmonton Oilers is that they have to start Calvin Pickard in Game 3.
I could see that happening. But if the Oilers continue to play sloppily, and the penalty kill continues giving up 10-bell chances, it won’t matter who’s in net.
If your first thought is to blame Stuart Skinner for the Oilers being down 2-0 in this first-round series with the Los Angeles Kings, I recommend re-watching the games.
You would like a big stop from him. That is valid, but none of the goals that have gone in have been weak or soft goals. He would have needed to make multiple unreal saves to keep the Oilers in these games. They were putrid defensively in Game 2. Sadly, this has been a trend for years in Edmonton. If I had a dollar for every time I mentioned on my radio show, or wrote here at Oilersnation, “The Oilers gifted them goals,” I’d be wealthy.
Through two games, in the playoffs no less, we’ve seen many players taking turns wearing Saint Nick’s famous red and white hat. They’ve looked like Santa Claus gifting the Kings chances, and in many cases, way too much time and space to make a shot. Give NHL players time in the slot to pick their spots, and more often than not, they will.
If you are feeling queasy, feel free to skip over the next few highlights.
Here’s one key giveaway, and then both defenders go behind the net. Kempe is left wide open in front, with time and space.
Evan Bouchard opts for a high-danger pass, misses McDavid and Byfield and Danault are wide open in the slot. Danault picks the corner. Watch in games how often a player has a good scoring chance, but little time and space, and his shot hits the goalie right in the chest. Then compare it to guys who have time. More examples to come.
Darnell Nurse and Leon Draisaitl are battling with two Kings, then Byfield just swoops in, and Nurse looks like his controller froze for a moment. He hesitates, and that allows Byfield to skate in right to the low slot and pick the corner perfectly.
This was all sorts of ugly. Moments after he made a great deflection to make the game 3-2, Viktor Arvidsson completely whiffs on the puck. Anze Kopitar pokes it to the corner, beats two Oilers to the puck and slides it to Adrien Kempe. He’s allowed to skate right into the low slot, load up his shot and fire it just inside the post.
Calvin Pickard has been in the game for less than 45 seconds and this is the first shot he faces. Kempe picks up the puck at centre, takes three strides and then is allowed to glide in, count three or four Mississippis, and he picks the top corner short side. It won’t matter who is in net if the LA Kings have this much time and space in Game 3.
You aren’t asking the goalies to “make a save,” you’re asking them to “make a great save,” repeatedly.
How about asking the skaters to execute plays? How about stop gifting the Kings scoring chances that allows them to skate untouched, without pressure, right into the high danger scoring areas? Have the Oilers had any easy goals in the series? Have the Kings gifted them scoring chance after scoring chance? No.
There is a good chance Kris Knoblauch will give Calvin Pickard the start, but it is only blind rage that makes you believe Skinner was the problem last night, or even in Game 1. Even Knoblauch recognizes the Oilers’ willingness to be Santa Claus cost them the game. “I don’t necessarily see LA making plays to beat us, I just see mistakes gift-wrapping opportunities,” said Knoblauch. He’s 100% accurate. The Oilers gifted the Kings chance after chance.
It was brutal, and if they don’t clean up their game this series will be over by Sunday night.
PENALTY KILL WOES…
The Oilers have had no answer for the Kings’ PP through two games. They’ve scored five goals on 10 opportunities. The PP is humming along at 50%, and every time they are on the PP, they look dangerous. The Oilers have to make some adjustments. Both of Andrei Kuzmenko’s goals came with him down low, behind the defenders, as they pushed up. The fact that it has happened twice tells me it is more than the D-men just not seeing him.
They might have to bring the D-men a bit lower at times.
And here are the other two PP goals from last night.
Warren Foegele comes down the wall and just beats Walman along the boards. He should be pinched off, then Nurse lays down to stop the pass. That play has worked at other times on the PK, which, again, tells me this is something the coaches want them to do, but the pass gets through, and Clarke comes in and puts the puck upstairs.
Maybe Skinner can move across a bit quicker, but as Kevin Woodley has said, on the push-across plays, if the shooter gets the puck over the pad, it is really hard to stop. Clarke did exactly that. Compare that to Zach Hyman’s chance later in the game on the PP. When he gets the pass across, his shot is on the ice and in the middle of the net. A much easier save to make. Shot placement matters a lot.
Another Kings’ PP goal. They get the Oilers’ defenders moving, and I don’t like Nurse’s decision here. He’s doing nothing. He isn’t in a lane to stop the pass, and he isn’t’ attacking. Walman then opts to remove his stick from the passing lane and cross-check Clarke in the back, and that leaves the cross-seam pass wide open. Skinner actually gets across and gets a piece of it, but again, you’re asking for an unreal save, not just a save on this play.
The Kings’ PP looks great, and the Oilers’ PK looks out of sync and lacking in confidence. They are hesitating, and when you hesitate on the PK, you get exposed.
The Oilers have been shorthanded 10 times in two games. They are averaging five kills/game, the most by a lot. Dallas is second at 4.33 while Ottawa and Winnipeg are third at 3.5/game. When your PK is struggling this badly, you can’t keep taking penalties. It is a shooting gallery, and whether it is Skinner or Pickard in goal, if the PK can’t get in the lanes or stop some shots, the onslaught by the Kings’ PP will continue.
LA has 20 shots in 14:23 of PP time, which is a ridiculous 83.4 shots/60. In the regular season, New Jersey led the league at 63.4 shots/60.
POWER PLAY NEEDS TO GET GOING
The Oilers’ power play is 0% through two games. Their PP hasn’t looked crisp at all. The first unit has a total of five shots on goal in 8:34 of PP time. The Oilers have a 39.7 SF/60 thus far. They were 53.7/60 in the regular season. The Kings’ PP is freewheeling, moving the puck quickly and attacking from different areas. The Oilers are too stagnant, and often when they gain the zone, they pass off high inside the blueline and the Kings are aggressively attacking them and creating a turnover and icing the puck.
The Oilers pride themselves on their PP being able to adapt and adjust to the opposition’s penalty kill. They need to act quickly to give themselves any chance of getting back in the series.
The Kings have been the better team for the majority of the series. Outside of a solid third period in Game 1, the Oilers haven’t been close to good enough. LA has led for 107:41 of the series. The other 12:19, the game was tied, but 11:32 of that was to start the games, before LA scored a PP goal to open the scoring in both games. The Oilers can’t kill a penalty, but they’ve given LA a PP opportunity in the first seven minutes of both games. Not a good combination.
Stuart Skinner hasn’t allowed one soft goal. The skaters in front of him have made some egregious mistakes that have led to goals. It is misguided to start any conversation about why the Oilers are trailing with goaltending. You can say you want him to make a big save, but it is more accurate to say he would need to make multiple great saves to give the Oilers a chance.
Skinner hasn’t been great. That is fair, and maybe he will never be an elite goalie. Also fair, but we’ve seen elite goalies get lit up when their team continually gives up high-danger chances. Connor Hellebuyck had an .870Sv% and 5.25 GAA last year in five games last year v. Colorado. Even the elite goalies can’t save a team when they are leaking quality chances all night.
“No team in this league can give up the amount of grade A and high danger chances we have (and expect to win). We have been hanging out our goalie and he’s made some big saves too. We have to be better in front of him. It isas simple as that,” said Nurse postgame.
The Oilers need to make smarter plays. Make better decisions with the puck. Execute better, and their special teams must improve.
Expecting Calvin Pickard to skate in and save the day is unrealistic, especially if the Oilers continue to gift the Kings quality scoring chances.
