Consecutive weeks of optical illusions will close Alabama’s football regular season.
You see the two teams. Then you look at their records and think something must be wrong with your eyesight. A road trip to Oklahoma followed by a visit from Auburn would typically be a monster of a final stretch for a Crimson Tide team scrapping for a College Football Playoff spot.
Strip away the team names and their 2024 bodies of work would make this look like a few gimmes.
The Crimson Tide (8-2, 4-2 SEC) first heads west to face a first-year league foe that is just 1-5 in SEC play. Entering its game with Texas A&M on Saturday, Auburn is also 1-5 against conference teams.
Strange, but true.
Before Alabama can even consider the Iron Bowl, a night game in Norman is nothing to overlook, regardless of records.
The best-case scenario for Alabama: Defense continues its dominance
This was a Crimson Tide defense that took its criticism for how it played in games with Georgia, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Something’s clicked recently as Missouri, LSU (and FCS-level Mercer) made minimal impacts on that Alabama defense.
Oklahoma doesn’t exactly bring much offensive momentum to this meeting, either. The Sooners have the nation’s 117th-ranked total offense (326.8 yards per game) and the 91st-best scoring offense that averages just 25.1 points a game. Narrow that down to SEC games and the Sooners are scoring a measly 15.2 points a game.
The lone Oklahoma win in SEC play came at Auburn by a 27-21 final in a game swung by an interception returned for a touchdown. It’s a team that scored just three points against Texas, nine against South Carolina before improving for 14 at Mississippi. Its most recent SEC game was a 30-23 heartbreaker at Missouri.
If Alabama handles its offensive business even at 75% capacity, a sixth Sooner loss in the first seven SEC games would seem assured.
Worst-case scenario: Oklahoma figures it out, catches Alabama napping
This is the ultimate battle with oneself. Alabama cannot for a second think they can skate through Oklahoma Memorial Stadium with eyes on Auburn or the SEC championship game.
Just two weeks ago, Oklahoma held a 23-16 lead at No. 24 Missouri with 2:00 to play. They held the Tigers out of the endzone for nearly 40 minutes of football and ESPN gave them a 93.7% chance of pulling the road upset after taking that touchdown lead in the closing moments. Of course Missouri scored twice in those final two minutes, a crazy ending that included a game-winning fumble return for a touchdown.
So this team’s capable of making things messy for quality opponents. It has a Week 3 win over CFP No. 20 Tulane and made Tennessee work for a 25-15 win a week later.
After that loss to Missouri, Oklahoma found some confidence with a 59-14 pounding of Maine (4-5 on the FCS level). The Sooners racked up 665 offensive yards and turned it over just once after being one of the more carless offenses this fall.
Bottom line: There’s more talent in that program than a typical 1-5 team in the SEC. It’s a proud program playing with very little to lose and the carrot of ruining a league power’s season on the string.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Oklahoma 14
Oklahoma just doesn’t have the offense to make this a game. Might have overshot with 14 points for the Sooners, but don’t forget how close I came to nailing last week’s score. This guy said 52-9 when Alabama ultimately beat Mercer 52-7. Just saying. I’m a pro.
