The Bulls are going for it, but what is 'it'?

I declared the season D.O.A., and especially after losses to the Nets and Jazz it was clear this wasn’t going to be some overachieving group. I suppose because it’s so early, and nearly all East teams are so bad, that any victory by the Bulls can lead to a referendum on their franchise direction. Of course that’s partially because the team itself doesn’t care much to communicate what they’re doing, and then when they do, it’s so nonsensical we try to project sense on it.

But what does a comeback (from 17 points down in the third quarter) in Atlanta to beat the Hawks actually signify? The result doesn’t tell us much: the Hawks looked to have simply ran out of gas being on a back-to-back with several injured rotation players1 , scoring 15 points in the fourth quarter - against this Bulls defense! - on 26% shooting and 0/7 from three.

But what about the process of that game? With Zach LaVine back in action, Billy Donovan once again relied on veterans to get this victory. I calculated the weighted age of both teams in that game, and the ‘youth movement’ Bulls were a full year older than the Hawks.

 

It does stick out that Jevon Carter played at all, KC Johnson of the home broadcast speculated2 that it’s because Carter played well in Atlanta last season. Talen Horton-Tucker, who while young is not part of the team’s future plans, received a DNP in Atlanta yet played over 28 minutes in that Jazz game…was it simply because THT played for Utah last season? It’s fair to speculate, as while there’s a lot more to coaching than the playing rotations, Billy Donovan’s history in that regard is to be a ‘players coach’.

Longtime NBA reporter Marc Stein hopped on Chuggo3 post-game after the “big” comeback win, and led with his “fascination” of the Bulls not really rebuilding and the concern that they’ll win too many games this season to keep their 1st round pick.

As stated, and certainly not dissuaded (or affirmed) a few weeks into the season, I don’t have this concern. But what interests me is that Stein said about what the Bulls themselves project about the situation, having just talked to team officials in Dallas:

The vibe you get from being around this team is they want to see the roster play to its ceiling. One person in the organization told me Zach LaVine is going to be an All-Star.

Stein followed that up with talking some sense - coincidentally, my exact thoughts I’ve had for months - against the **narrative** out there propagated by Bulls broadcasters and some media (Chuggo included) that LaVine can meaningfully increase his trade value: Stein rumored that even if Zach is an All-Star that won’t change his market, teams know what Zach is on the court (good and bad), his contract is the limiting factor and that’s not changing.

Stein did say that Nikola Vucevic would be much more tradeable even with his awful-when-pen-hit-paper contract. I’m skeptical (briefly: his defense means he can’t be the primary center on a contending team, and would any such already-expensive team pay $20M for a backup?), though Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report sources Vuc’s value as “2 second round picks”. Of course, the Bulls should take that now, even less than that, if it gets Vuc’s minutes, shots, and money off the roster ASAP. But Stein contextualized this rumor by adding the Bulls aren’t ready to deal Vuc now while he’s playing out of his mind.

The idea of using minutes to showcase overpaid and known-quantity veterans in what should be a developmental-plus-losing-ain’t-so-bad season makes little sense, and another half measure in a team defined by them: the way to get significant trade return would be to deal players in their prime and on good (even great) contracts: Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu.

And then what about the “youth movement”? Stein cited this Hawks game as evidence how “Billy Donovan is not a tanking coach”. And indeed, the Bulls youngest cohort was not relied upon in this comeback, and has not fared well for much of the young season:

• Matas Buzelis played 5 minutes, and zero in the 2nd half. He hasn’t played well enough to earn a regular role, and everyone involved says it won’t be given.

• Josh Giddey (the centerpiece of the offseason) has had a massive negative impact for much of the time he’s been on the floor. Against the Hawks he sat the final four minutes and the Bulls went +11 to close out the game.

• Patrick Williams looks like he’s either lost some athleticism after this foot surgery or he’s still out of shape recovering from it. That’s very worrisome given his failure to improve in skill and motor throughout his career.

• Dalen Terry and Julian Phillips do look improved. I still think they should’ve declined Terry’s option for next season, because he still can’t shoot, but he at least is showing a demonstrated NBA skill (plus added a lot of weight+strength) of being able to hound ballhandlers. Phillips looks like he can shoot, hitting over 36% on 5.7threes/36min.

Again, it’s early. We can’t draw any conclusions or assume sustainability for Vuc’s shooting or Dalen Terry’s steals rate. But every game, let alone victory, reminds that they never should’ve entered the season with this many different priorities.