When it was announced the Packers would sign Josh Jacobs and would be moving on from Aaron Jones, there was much hand-wringing and lamenting among the fanbase. With good reason. Jones was one of the best running backs in team history, still a productive player, and as good a human being and locker-room presence as there was in the league.
General Manager Brian Gutekunst explained there were multiple reasons for the separation. Included among them were the inability to come to an agreement on a pay cut and the unexpected ability to sign Josh Jacobs. Inherent in that explanation is the preference for a younger, more durable player at the running back position. Jacobs is three years and two seasons of football younger than Jones.
Both players have similar missed game rates (16% for Jones, 12% for Jacobs) but Jacobs has shown an ability to handle a much more robust workload. Jacobs has averaged 300 touches (rushing attempts plus receptions) per season compared to Jones’ 207. Multiple coaching staffs have shown they didn’t want to commit to using Jones as a full-time back. Mike McCarthy had him split snaps and carries with Jamaal Williams, Matt LaFleur with A.J. Dillon. Jacobs has been a “bellcow” back the entirety of his career.
As painful as it was to see Aaron Jones both leave and sign with division rival Minnesota, the decision to move forward with Jacobs seems prescient for the 2024 Packers. Jacobs is on pace to have the second-highest workload of his career to only his All-Pro 2022 season when he handled the ball 393 times. Jacobs already has 225 touches in 2024. Jones’ career high is 285, in his breakout 2019 season.
In addition to total touches, the ability to handle a large workload in consecutive weeks is critical to the Packers’ offense. It will be on display on Thanksgiving Night when they host the Miami Dolphins. Jacobs is coming off back-to-back games of 20 touches. He had 18 carries and 4 receptions in the game against Chicago on November 17th and 26 carries on Sunday against San Francisco. The Packers will be playing their third game in 12 days on Thanksgiving, making Jacobs’ durability and ability to be a workhorse back even more important.
Prior to this season, Josh Jacobs had played in 15 games following back-to-back games with 20 or more touches. In those games he’s averaged 20 carries for 92 yards and 2.7 receptions for 22 yards. He averages getting almost 23 touches in games following back-to-back 20-touch games. That’s remarkable durability. Aaron Jones has only played in five games in his career following back-to-back 20-touch games. ironically, three of them were at the end of the season last year.
Per @FF_MarvinE and @nflfastR, the Packers are last in the league in Pass Rate Over Expected after 12 weeks. They are the run-heaviest team in non-obvious passing situations. After 12 weeks, this isn’t just because they had to start Malik Willis for two games anymore. This offense revolves around Josh Jacobs and his abilities.
Miami’s defense is better against the pass than the run. They are among the league leaders in getting pass-rush pressure and Jalen Ramsay is back to playing at a Pro Bowl level. For the Packers to come out of Thursday Night with a win to keep pace with Detroit and Minnesota at the top of the NFC North division, they’re going to need Josh Jacobs to be able to do what he’s done all year, in a situation they probably wouldn’t have been able to count on Aaron Jones in.
