The 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Final is now down to a best-of-five showdown and one thing is for sure, that the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers are incredibly, evenly matched. Therefore, we are here today to discuss one position that the two sides are in extremely tight competition with one another, defence. You know the saying, defence wins championships. Well, it might just fit like a glove for these two teams that have battled for Lord Stanley’s Holy Grail in what is now consecutive seasons. So, let’s explore what makes the defences so crucial to each team, and ultimately, the series and its final outcome.
Analyzing the Oilers and Panthers Defence
First, we have to start with the Oilers lines from yesterday’s practice. Based on the latest lineup notes, if you go from practice yesterday, the Oilers switched up their lines a little. As a sidenote, their forward lines did not include Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and he was listed as a game-time-decision.
Furthermore, if the Oilers are able to find the defensive game from Evan Bouchard, away from Mattias Ekholm in the lineup, that is a huge advantage to the three defensive pairings collectively. As we shall discuss, the lines are different and much improved in terms of skills compared to last year. Now, we will add that the Oilers blueline was definitely tougher last year as a whole. In contrast, they do have an added element of skill that’s impact is hard to explain or quantify in Jake Walman. It’s a great example, and something we shall go into greater detail in a bit.
The Ultimate Comparison of Team Defences
It can be thought of as a surprise of sorts in a series featuring Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Aleksander Barkov. Here we are, talking about defence. Just think of it as someone has to keep things under control, right? Moreover, the defencemen in this series provide plenty of star power in their own right. So, where, oh where to start but then with a bang, in the form of a Bouch-Bomb!
Where better to start than the offensive stud, Evan Bouchard. He currently leads NHL defencemen in scoring in the playoffs, and by a wide margin. Bouchard has 21, while second place, Thomas Harley with 14, isn’t even playing as his Dallas Stars were eliminated by the Oilers last round. So, just how did Bouchard get to this level?
Ever since Mattias Ekholm joined him on the top pairing, Bouchard’s game really soared. However, it is interesting that Bouchard proved this postseason, due to Ekholm’s absence, that he can get it done on his own. Bouchard has been paired with three players in Brett Kulak, Jake Walman, and Darnell Nurse regularly for the first three playoff rounds. Furthermore, each time his xGoals% was 57% or above. Quite impressive.
How Did the Oilers Defence Become What It Is Today
Now that Ekholm is back, head coach Kris Knoblauch has the option of reuniting the undisputed, Oiler top pairing. For example, last year in the playoffs that tandem skated over 400 minutes together with a 61.3 xGoals%. The nice thing for Knoblauch this go ’round, is that the Oilers defence, one through six/seven, seems much more experienced and reliable. Last season, Vincent Desharnais and Philip Broberg lacked experience from the backend. We already hinted at that added experience this year by referring to Bouchard’s partners. In addition, Troy Stecher and John Klingberg have both been steady when called upon.
If we think back to the 2023-24 regular season, the Oilers had three set, uncannily healthy, defensive duos. Conversely, once the playoffs got down to the money rounds, their lack of skill was exposed. Philip Broberg finally started seeing some action, and well you know how that all shook down. After the offseason changes, the Oilers blueline does look different now. The major difference at this point, that didn’t come until the trade deadline, was that added talent component, in the form of Walman.
Overall, the Oilers group is experienced, skilled, and probably underrated for toughness. Given the more high-profile names, you kind of ignore their physicality. In contrast, Nurse is a strong as they come and Walman has proven to step up when the chips (or gloves) are down.
The Panthers Defence Takes the Back Seat to No One
Now that we have studied the Oilers, what about the Panthers defence? Thinking back to 2023-24 for a minute, and their defensive alignment was strong then. In contrast, they did have to revamp. In the offseason, they lost Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Montour. Two defenders that you could argue would elevate any teams’ top-four. So, just what did general manager Bill Zito do, why he replaced them with Seth Jones at the trade deadline. Also, Nate Schmidt was another addition, who’s play has been nothing short of fantastic. In terms of xGoals%, the Schmidt and Dmitry Kulikov pairing is nearly at 60%, to lead the big three Panther pairings during this year’s postseason.
One of the biggest trade deadline acquisitions around the league, in fact, was Seth Jones. It was only because of the Matthew Tkachuk long-term injury cap relief, as well as Ekblad being suspended for performance-enhancing drugs at the time, even allowed for such an addition to the lineup. Jones is an incredible athlete, and is showing the hockey world, he is still at an elite level. We haven’t even mentioned two of their best defencemen in Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad. Even Niko Mikkola has developed into a reliable in most all situations, depth type of guy.
Comparing the Two Teams Defensively
Now that we have set the stage, just how can we analytically show who’s defence is best? It is tricky, with the likes of McDavid scoring at will, sometimes all you can do is hope to contain him. Perhaps it is about timely containment, such as not allowing him to be the difference maker in the Game 2, double-overtime affair. Moreover, of the 16 playoff teams, Florida is fifth in shots-allowed-per-game at 26.5, meanwhile the Oilers more run-and-gun approach lands them 11th at 28.1. You could bring up the argument, that given the quality of the Oilers shooters, a 1.6 shot differential isn’t tangibly significant.
It is probably better to think about high-quality situational play. For starters, the Panthers actually turn the puck over much more frequently in precarious positions, as in the playoffs they have 129 to Edmonton’s 102 defensive zone turnovers. However, Florida must ultimately be in better position when they do turn it over. As an example, high-danger shots against is tied between the two clubs, at 33-a-piece. Furthermore, Edmonton has been forced into many more shot blocking situations. Those counts are 307 to 237, that is quite a wide margin. And finally, one last stat to consider, is the two starter’s high-danger save percentage. Because after all, a goalie is only as good as the defence in front of him.
In this regard, Sergei Bobrovsky is among the leaders, for goalies with at least five appearances. His .804 HDSV% puts him third, but including Stuart Skinner, who sits in ninth (of 17 qualified backstops) at a respectable .750.
And Finally, Who Gets the Decision, On the Backend
So, who do you take? The added presence of Ekholm in the Oilers lineup is a huge boost. In addition, Bouchard scores at an all-time rate for defencemen in the playoffs. When you combine that with the fact they are a talented group overall, you have a great team defence. In contrast, Florida is loaded on the backend. Ekblad and Jones are two of the best, big, right-shot rearguards in the show. Ekblad helped to shutdown McDavid last year. Needless to say, it’s hard to pick a winner based on the two clubs’ respective defences. Game 3 goes tonight from Sunrise, Florida, will a defencemen’s shot from the point be a game changer?
