The Kansas City Chiefs have been so good since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback in 2018, it's been difficult to really care about any statistical evidence that things might be heading downhill.
The Chiefs were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL in 2024 in terms of the results of their one-score games, but to get that lucky, you also have to be really good. The Chiefs have mastered the art of situational football in every phase of the game, and their opponents often pay the price. But the last two seasons, their decline offensively has been impossible to ignore.
In each of the last two seasons, the Chiefs have had the 15th-ranked scoring offense in the league. They have not been even remotely the same team offensively that we saw from 2018-22, even with the first year post-Tyreek Hill being a resounding success on that side of the ball.
The harsh reality is that the Chiefs have not been sustainably good offensively, even though the team has found ways to compensate. Although people might already be surprised enough to find out that the Chiefs have ranked 15th in the NFL in scoring offense, a Patrick Mahomes stat from last season will have everyone's jaw on the ground.
Patrick Mahomes did something that hasn't been done in 20 years
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 23, 202530.8% of Patrick Mahomes pass attempts targeted players at or behind the line of scrimmage last year
#1 highest rate for any QB in a season since at least 2005
*min 400 attempts pic.twitter.com/Wf9eWmNRkA
In at least the last 20 years, nobody has targeted player at or behind the line of scrimmage more than Patrick Mahomes did last season. This is a product of a number of things. First of all, the Chiefs had tons of injuries derail them at receiver last year.
Second, Andy Reid uses the quick passing game as an extension of his offense.
Third, and perhaps most concerning, is the Chiefs struggled with pass protection last season.
You've got a stud quarterback out there who doesn't have time to throw the ball to receivers who are learning the offense on the fly, in some cases. That also doesn't account for the fact that the Chiefs specifically target skill players who excel at creating after the catch.
Obviously, considering the results for the team, this rather staggering stat is nothing to be overly concerned about, but it's fair to be a little critical of Kansas City's offense at this point. They have to protect better. They need receivers to step up. Mahomes has done his part to try and push the ball downfield, and it's resulted in the highest interception rate over a two-year stretch for any portion of his career thus far.
But when you have five fourth quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives, you prove your greatness more than enough to folks. Mahomes is capable of beating NFL teams in a wide variety of ways, which is what makes him such a pain for every NFL defensive coordinator. Even if Mahomes isn't attacking downfield and winning, he's capable of dominating the league.
Imagine what can happen if he goes on a redemption arc in 2025.
