For the second consecutive season, the team representing the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals will come down to the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars.
The matchup became official after the Stars’ overtime win against the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday. Down 2-1 last year, the Oilers fired off three consecutive wins to head to their first Stanley Cup Finals since 2006.
A lot has changed since last year. The Oilers added Jeff Skinner, Victor Arvidsson, Vasily Podkolzin, and Ty Emberson in the off-season. Before the trade deadline, they acquired Trent Frederic and Jake Walman, while claiming Kasperi Kapanen off waivers and signing John Klingberg.
As for the Stars, their big move was acquiring and extending Mikko Rantanen, the point and goal leader this postseason. Former Oiler Cody Ceci was acquired alongside Mikael Granlund before the trade deadline, while Ilya Lyubushkin was signed as a free agent in the off-season.
Of course, the Oilers have lost a handful of players, namely Warren Foegele, Ceci, Ryan McLeod, Philip Broberg, and Dylan Holloway. The Stars’ main losses were Joe Pavelski, Logan Stankoven, and Chris Tanev.
Earlier Monday, Tyler Yaremchuk looked at what areas the Oilers have an advantage over the Stars in these playoffs, so let’s dive into some area’s Dallas has an edge over Edmonton.
Special Teams
Last postseason, the biggest reason the Oilers won was because of their special teams. In the series, the Oilers took 14 penalties, killing every single one of them, the second such series they were able to do in the 2024 run. Although the Oilers’ power play started off cold, going 0/6 through the first four games, it caught fire in Games 5 and 6, as the Oilers scored four goals in five opportunities.
Things have changed heading into this matchup, as the Stars have the special team advantage. The Oilers’ power play doesn’t really inspire hope. Their 25 percent power play percentage is sixth in the league, but third-best among the teams still fighting for the Stanley Cup. What that stat doesn’t tell you is just how bad the Oilers’ power play has been on the road.
In their six road games, the Oilers haven’t been able to score a power play goal, going 0/14 on the special teams. Games at Rogers Place have been a different story, as the Oilers are six for ten on home power plays. Weird.
Of the remaining teams in the postseason, the Oilers’ 66.7 percent penalty kill percentage is the worst. The Stars’ penalty kill ranked third-best in the postseason at 86.1 percent, behind just the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes. That is a worrisome sign.
Other than losing the speedy McLeod and Foegele, a big reason for the Oilers’ penalty kill woes is the absence of Mattias Ekholm. The good news is that he was a full participant in Monday’s practice, and there appears to be a high probability he will return to the lineup at some point this series, even if he’s not ready for the first two games.
With that being said, the Stars’ 30.8 percent power play percentage is the third-best in the postseason and best of the four remaining teams in the playoffs. Simply put, the Oilers’ penalty kill needs to tighten up if they want any chance at making it through Dallas.
Special teams aside, the Stars’ even-strength play hasn’t been good. When including four-on-four situations, the Stars have 22 goals for and 30 goals against. During five-on-five play, the Stars have been outscored 20 to 22.
The Oilers may struggle with their special teams, but their five-on-five play has been impressive, outscoring teams 29-21. In all even strength situations, the Oilers have outscored opposition 37 to 23.
Goaltending
Another of the deciding factors for this series could come down to goaltending. Jake Oettinger has a .919 save percentage, the second-highest in the league behind Hurricanes’ netminder Frederik Andersen. On the other hand, the Oilers’ .886 save percentage is the fourth-lowest in the postseason and the lowest of the four teams still standing.
Calvin Pickard is still day-to-day, meaning Stuart Skinner is the starter for the foreseeable future. In his five games played this postseason, he has an .884 save percentage, fourth-worst this postseason for any netminder with five or more games played. Pickard’s .888 save percentage isn’t much better.
It’s worth noting that Skinner has saved the last 47 shots he faced, shutting out the Vegas Golden Knights in Games 4 and 5 en route to the series win. Moreover, Skinner’s best postseason series of his career came last season against the Stars, posting a .922 save percentage in the six games. Most impressive was when he goalie’d the Stars in Game 6, saving 33 of 34 shots.
As for Oettinger’s performance against the Oilers, he finished with a .901 save percentage in the six games. His first two games saw him post a .940 save percentage, before the Oilers scored 12 goals on 82 shots for an .872 save percentage throughout the last four games.
In conclusion
This feels like a winnable series for both teams. If the Oilers can’t get their penalty kill in order, that is what could sink them. If Ekholm returns to full health and plays to his usual standards, that will.
One question mark heading into the series is if the Oilers have figured out Oettinger and whether or not Skinner can have another good series against the Stars. With that being said, the Oilers have played strongly at five-on-five while the Stars have not.
