With a 5-2 loss on Saturday night, the Edmonton Oilers are on the verge of elimination in the Stanley Cup Finals.
It’s been yet another roller-coaster of a series for Edmonton. They’ve had some dramatic comebacks and some extremely close overtime games, but they’ve also trailed for a significant chunk of this series. Now, they must win two consecutive games or lose to the Florida Panthers in the Cup Final for the second straight season.
Without further ado, here are six thoughts heading into Game 6 on Tuesday night.
*All stats via EvolvingHockey unless stated otherwise
A complete squander of home-ice advantage
In the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, the Oilers went 2-1 at Rogers Place, scoring a whopping 16 goals in those three games. But on the contrary, the Oilers went 1-3 at Amerant Bank Arena, scoring just seven goals in those four games and just two goals in Games 1, 2 and 7 combined.
In Florida, Paul Maurice held last change and decided to hard-match Aleksander Barkov’s line and the Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad pair against Connor McDavid’s line. This strategy evidently worked, as McDavid had just a single 5-on-5 point in four games at Florida, most notably getting shut out in the critical Game 7.
There are several reasons as to why the Oilers lost the finals last season, but I believe Florida having home-ice advantage was a critical one. They simply could not figure out and break through Maurice’s line-matching on the road.
But this time around, Edmonton possessed home-ice advantage, finishing higher than the Panthers in the regular-season standings. Heading into this series, I thought the key to victory for the Oilers would be to continue holding a winning record at home, while winning at least one game in Florida.
Unfortunately, they lost Game 2 and Game 5 at Rogers Place. And now, if they want to win this series, they will need to go 2-1 at Florida. Simply put, it’s a huge shame that the Oilers completely wasted their home-ice advantage, something that could have made a huge difference last season. Kris Knoblauch had a real opportunity here to use the last change to his advantage, but he just never did.
Of course, the Oilers did win Game 4 in Amerant Bank Arena, but they began the game down 3-0 and won in overtime off a fortunate bounce. Will the Oilers be able to repeat this sort of performance on Tuesday? Only time will tell.
Why can’t the Oilers ever start on time?
A big reason why the Oilers thoroughly dominated against the Dallas Stars in the 2025 Western Conference Finals was due to the fact they were almost never behind. In that series, the Stars led for a mere 14 minutes and two seconds, all of which came in the third period of Game 1. Through Games 2 to 5, the Stars did not possess the lead for even a single second.
But that has been far from the case in this year’s Stanley Cup Final.
The Panthers have led at some point in every game of this series, and have led by multiple goals in four of the five games. Florida has led for more than a whopping 200 minutes, compared to a mere 33:51 for Edmonton.
The dramatic comebacks are fun and all, but it goes without saying that this is simply not a strategy for success. These slow starts have been a recurring problem for quite some time, dating back to the beginning of the 2023-24 season.
There’s not much else to say here. This team absolutely has the ability to play a full 60 minutes, but so far, they’ve yet to do that. Simply put, Edmonton needs to come out guns blazing in the first period of Game 6.
Let’s talk about the defensive pairs
Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey have shuffled around the defensive pairs quite a lot in this series.
They began the series with pairs of Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse – Brett Kulak, and Jake Walman – John Klingberg. But following significant struggles from Nurse, Kulak and Klingberg at moving the puck against Florida’s forecheck, the Oilers mixed it up for Games 4 and 5, pairing Bouchard with Kulak, Walman with Ekholm, and then inserting Troy Stecher into the lineup next to Nurse in place of Klingberg.
These were exactly the pairs I desired to see prior to Game 4. Edmonton has performed well with Bouchard on-ice at 5v5, but without him, they have greatly struggled. My logic (and I’m assuming the logic of the coaching staff as well) was that Kulak and Bouchard already had excellent results as a pair against Dallas; pairing them together then allows you to let Ekholm help the team during the non-Bouchard minutes.
Did this strategy work? Well, not exactly.
In Game 4, Knoblauch and Coffey decided to bench Stecher for most of the game, and so the Oilers primarily ran with five defencemen, not exactly testing those three pairings. And in Game 5, Ekholm made two major gaffes on the first two goals against, ultimately causing the coaching staff to revert back to the Ekholm and Bouchard pair.
So, all things considered, what pairs should the Oilers run here?
If Ekholm was fully healthy, I would still say those three pairings mentioned above would be the best option. But it seems that Ekholm is not at 100%, and without Bouchard, Ekholm holds a ghastly 31 percent expected goal share. Thus, it may indeed be best to keep the Ekholm – Bouchard duo, as they still possess very good results.
From there, I would strongly consider playing Nurse with Walman. That pairing has not spent significant time together, but in the minutes they did in the regular season, they held an excellent 62 percent expected goal share, outscoring opponents 10 to 2. Out of all the Oilers LHDs, I believe Walman is best on his off-side, and his puck-moving should greatly help Nurse. Finally, it is likely best to insert Klingberg back into the lineup next to Kulak on a fairly sheltered third-pair.
A highly inconsistent power-play has cost them
In the first three rounds of the postseason, the Oilers’ power-play averaged 10.7 goals per 60 minutes. In this series thus far, they’re at 6.7, a notable decrease.
There has been significant criticism against the officiating, and rightfully so. Indeed, I would highly agree that for the most part, they have been brutal in this series. But it is unfair to say that they are even close to the primary reason why the Oilers are behind.
Edmonton has had multiple power-play opportunities at key points in this series. In their Game 2 loss, the Oilers had a 5-on-3 in the first period, an opportunity to establish a multi-goal lead, but they failed to convert, ultimately by a single goal in double overtime. In their Game 3 loss, the Oilers allowed a very early goal against, but had multiple power-play chances to tie the game throughout the first; however, they didn’t, and wound up getting blown out 6-1. And finally, in Game 5, the Oilers began the game down 2-0, but had three power-plays in the first two periods, enough to tie the game or at least cut the lead to one. And yet again, they failed to do so, and lost 5-2.
Can the officiating be better? Yes. Were there multiple missed calls against the Panthers? Yes. But Edmonton has still had their fair share of power-play chances, and has just failed to capitalize on them. That’s fully on them.
The Oilers have had major struggles scoring and finishing at 5-on-5 in Florida. They will need their PP to be at its best in Game 6.
Starting Stuart Skinner is the move
For a team going into Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals, you would think there would be no doubt with regards to who their starting goalie should be at that point. But alas, that is not the case for this Oilers team, who have yet another tough decision to make.
On the one hand, Calvin Pickard holds a 7-1 record in these playoffs, and it largely seems to be because the team has played significantly better in front of him. With Pickard in net, the Oilers average more goals per game and hold a superior scoring chance differential.
But, Edmonton just started Pickard in Game 5, and he did not perform well, holding a 0.778 save percentage. The skaters in front of him obviously performed quite poorly as well.
Although Stuart Skinner was pulled after Edmonton’s abysmal start to Game 4, going down 3-0, I don’t believe it was his fault. In the first period alone, the Panthers generated roughly ~2.9-3.3 expected goals depending on the model, and so Skinner did not allow any more goals than expected.
Furthermore, despite Pickard’s superior record, it is certainly worth noting that Skinner has a superior GSAx (goals saved above expected) in these playoffs overall. Sure, Skinner may have a disappointing 0.891 save percentage, but after accounting for shot quality per EvolvingHockey, Skinner has allowed 40 goals on 44 expected goals, roughly saving four goals above expected. Contrastingly, Pickard has a negative GSAx.
Ultimately, I believe the best option is to go back to Skinner. It is risky, and again, it must certainly be noted that the Oilers’ skaters play better in front of Pickard than Skinner on average, but the body of evidence strongly suggests that Skinner is the better (or the “less worse”) option here.
The Oilers need their best players to be their best players
Here is a closer look at Edmonton’s 5-on-5 goal differential in this series.
While Edmonton’s depth forwards have been disappointing, as they greatly miss Zach Hyman, they still hold a net-even goal differential at 5-on-5. Nothing spectacular, but this remains a massive improvement over years prior, where their goal differential ranged between 30-40%. It’s enough for the Oilers to be successful.
However, the Oilers still hold a net negative goal differential at 5-on-5 in this series. And to put it bluntly, it’s due to a lacklustre performance from their top stars.
With McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice together at 5v5, they have absolutely dominated possession and scoring chances, but they’ve utterly failed to finish. And away from each other, they have been thoroughly out-shot and out-scored. Simply put, it is extremely difficult for the team to win with the top-six playing like this.
The real shame here is that, unlike last year, Barkov has not performed well. He’s yet to score a goal in this series, and he holds a negative goal and expected goal differential at 5-on-5. The Forsling – Ekblad pair has also mightily struggled in their own end, holding an abysmal 38 percent expected goal share. It’s not like Barkov and Forsling have been shutting down McDavid and Draisaitl; Edmonton’s stars just haven’t been able to figure out the rest of Florida’s lines.
Of course, you can obviously cut Draisaitl some slack for scoring both OT game-winning goals in Games 2 and 4. But nevertheless, they need him and especially McDavid to be substantially better at 5-on-5. I don’t ever like criticizing these two after everything they’ve done for this team, but there’s just no other way to say it.
After putting up zero points in the final two games of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, Game 6 will be a legacy-defining game for Connor McDavid, perhaps the most important one of his career when all’s said and done. Let’s see if the league’s most talented player will deliver.
