Sink or Swim: Dolphins’ Former First-Round Pick Facing Major Test

When the Miami Dolphins selected Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the expectation was that the franchise had finally found its long-term answer at quarterback. Now, entering season six, Tagovailoa finds himself at a crossroads. Despite showing flashes of brilliance, the combination of untimely injuries, playoff struggles, and Miami’s recent draft decision may signal that 2025 is Tua’s final chance to prove he’s the guy.

New Competition, Old Questions

The Dolphins raised eyebrows across the league during the 2025 NFL Draft when they selected Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers in the 7th round. Ewers was once considered a high draft pick heading into his final season in Austin. Drafting Ewers after signing free agent and 2021 overall No. 2 pick Zach Wilson sent a loud and clear message: the team is preparing for life after Tua, just in case. Just this week, the team added 2024 First-Team All-MAC and Miami of Ohio signal caller Brett Gabbert to add more competition in the quarterback room.

Ewers is raw but talented, and while he’s not expected to challenge for immediate playing time, Miami’s decision to spend a draft pick on a quarterback suggests they’re hedging their bets. It’s the same playbook teams have used before when the current starter’s future is uncertain. For Tagovailoa, this should be a wake-up call—if it wasn’t already clear, the pressure is on.

The message is simple: produce now or risk being replaced.

Compounding this pressure is Tagovailoa’s injury history. Over his five NFL seasons, he’s missed critical time due to concussions and other injuries, and durability has become a major concern. The Dolphins need a quarterback who can lead them through a full season and into a deep playoff run. Anything less in 2025 could force the organization to make a hard decision.

The Contract Conundrum

Tua’s current contract situation only heightens the stakes. Last year, the Dolphins and the former Alabama star agreed to a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension with $167.1 million guaranteed. Those aren’t the type of numbers that signal an opening for an incumbent, but if Tagovailoa fails to elevate Miami this season, the Dolphins could be forced to consider their options. While it’s not cheap to move on from a former top-five pick, the decision becomes far easier if he doesn’t win and stay on the field in 2025.

Tagovailoa has all the offensive tools at his disposal. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle form arguably the league’s most dangerous wide receiver duo and head coach Mike McDaniel continues to craft a quarterback-friendly offense. The excuses are gone. Tua has the weapons, the scheme, and the experience. All that’s left is for him to stay healthy and deliver when it counts. And that’s what makes this season so crucial.

No More Time to Wait

Offensively, the Dolphins are a unit built to win now. The defense has drafted and acquired young talent to take steps forward, and the coaching staff is stable. If Tua can’t take this roster into the playoffs in 2025, the front office may feel it has no choice but to turn the page.

It’s a harsh reality of the NFL, potential only lasts so long before performance must follow. Tagovailoa has shown he can be elite in stretches. In 2022 and 2023, he ranked among the league leaders in passer rating and completion percentage. But neither season ended with postseason success, and 2024 brought more of the same: solid regular-season play, untimely injuries, and no playoff appearance.

Wilson or Ewers may not be ready yet, but their presence looms large. If Miami stumbles out of the gate or Tua suffers another injury, the calls for change will grow louder. And unlike in years past, the Dolphins might have an alternative waiting in the wings.

Tagovailoa could be playing for his future in Miami. If he can finally silence the injury concerns and lead his team into January with real momentum, he’ll cement his place as the future and long-term face of the franchise. But if not, he may join the long list of high-profile Dolphins quarterbacks who couldn’t quite get the job done.

2025 is shaping up to be the most important season of Tua Tagovailoa’s career. And it may very well be his last in aqua and orange if he doesn’t rise to the occasion.