Should Josh Brown be an NHL regular for the Oilers?

It’s safe to say the numbers do not look pretty.

Across the board, Brown’s numbers range from below-average to flat-out abysmal. The glaring number on this visual is Brown’s even-strength defensive impact, as his scoring chance suppression metrics rank bottom-five in the entire league. Brown has major struggles in regards to efficiently retrieving pucks in the defensive zone and moving it out without turning it over, while his offence isn’t nearly good enough to make up for it.

It’s not as if Brown has played in some tough role either, as his quality of competition is relatively low, ranking in the 19th percentile.

Some may argue that these metrics simply result from playing on a mediocre team. However, the even-strength offensive impact numbers above are measured using EvolvingHockey’s RAPM tool, a model that attempts to adjust player results for external factors such as the quality of teammates, quality of competition, zone starts, and so on; this model is far from perfect, but generally, it can be considered reliable, especially in larger sample sizes.

Furthermore, here is a comparison of Brown to Arizona’s other defencemen in the past two seasons:

Twelve different defencemen have played at least 400 minutes for Arizona in the past two seasons. Amongst them, Brown has been the second-most sheltered, only spending roughly a quarter of his TOI against elite opposition.

Despite this, Brown ranks well below-average in goal differential, and ranks second-last among the team’s defencemen in expected goal differential. Put simply, it’s difficult to argue that these numbers are solely caused by teammate or competition quality.

All-in-all, these numbers are very poor, to the extent that Micah Blake McCurdy’s statistical model ranks Brown as the worst player in the NHL; per McCurdy’s metrics, Arizona saw an increase of 22 percent in quality shots allowed per hour, the highest (i.e. worst) rate among all active players.

Ty Emberson and Troy Stecher are the other players contending for the 2RD and 3RD spots, and Travis Dermott – currently on a professional tryout – is also looking to make the team as a 6th or 7th defenceman. For comparison, here is how their metrics look:

Emberson is well below average offensively, but what makes him appealing are the exemplary defensive results, which rank in the 89th percentile. He specifically performs well at retrieving pucks in the defensive zone and protecting the front of the net, while his quality of competition is also on-par with your typical second-pair defenceman.

Stecher’s results are rather subpar, but unlike Brown, he’s roughly average defensively and ranks above-average in retrievals. While this stat is not included in this visual, it’s also worth noting that Stecher is relatively strong at zone entries and passing the puck up the ice to create rush chances, something that could be beneficial for the bottom six.

Dermott has nearly identical metrics to Stecher, but the key difference between them is quality of competition; Dermott led all Arizona defencemen in time spent against elite opposition, as seen in the visual earlier. It did seem to result in an atrocious goal differential, but playing in a more sheltered role in Edmonton could do wonders for him given his expected results.

Emberson, Stecher and Dermott certainly aren’t world-beaters, but they are superior options to Brown.

So, what do the Oilers see in Brown? Can he rebound on a better team?

Ever since January of 2023, Vincent Desharnais generally played as Edmonton’s third-pairing right-defenceman, primarily next to Brett Kulak. A distinct attribute of Desharnais’ was his imposing 6-foot-7 frame, which he often used to his advantage by busting cycles and separating the opposition from the puck. Although he had some notable weaknesses, namely his foot speed, he was generally a very solid third-pair defenceman for the Oilers, producing a 54 percent expected goal differential at 5v5 in his career.

However, Desharnais signed with the Vancouver Canucks as a free agent this off-season. I wonder if the Oilers see Josh Brown as a Desharnais replacement.

The appeal to Brown seems to be his size and “grit,” as he would be tied with Mattias Ekholm as Edmonton’s tallest defenceman at 6-foot-5, and the NHL has credited him with 265 hits in the past two seasons, alongside 10 fights.

Brown seems to be the typical big, rugged, gritty defenceman that many old-school general managers and fans often love. He seems to have been brought in to provide the “intangibles” aspect.

However, while attributes such as size and physicality can be incredibly useful, I feel they matter little in the grand scheme of things if players aren’t using those attributes to their advantage offensively and/or defensively. A key reason for Brown’s high hit totals seems to be the fact that his team seldom has the puck with him on-ice, and he hardly uses his size to separate opponents from the puck or stand up the blueline. Simply put, Brown’s intangibles do not outweigh the dreadful on-ice impact he has.

Now, with all of that said, there have been instances where players saw some sort of improvement when moving to superior teams. The gap between 2022-24 Arizona and Edmonton is quite substantial, and perhaps Brown would benefit in a significantly more stable system.

But while I don’t hate the idea of at least giving him a chance at some point, I don’t see the point of playing him right now when Emberson and Stecher are clearly the superior options.

Why a strong third pairing matters for this Oilers roster

Some of you may read this article and ask, does it really matter who the right defenceman on the third pairing is?

In the grand scheme of things? Probably not. Even if Brown’s results don’t substantially improve, it’s not as if deciding to play him on the third pair will single-handedly cost the Oilers a Stanley Cup.

But at the same time, having an impactful third-pairing is a lot more important for the Oilers than some may think.

In 2023-24, the Oilers ranked fifth in the league in 5-on-5 goal differential, and first in 5-on-5 expected goal differential. Their actual goal differential lags behind their expected numbers by a decent margin due to their struggles at consistently finishing their chances (outside of Hyman, Draisaitl and McDavid), but the point is that the Oilers were a fantastic 5-on-5 team. A big reason was the fact that they had two quality defensive pairs.

Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard, Edmonton’s first-pairing, ranked second among all defensive pairs in expected goal differential at a superb 62%. Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais, Edmonton’s third-pairing, ranked twelfth at 55%. Alongside the Carolina Hurricanes, the Oilers were the only team in the league with two defensive pairs in the top twelve (yes, Kulak and Desharnais were sheltered, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that they did their job as a third pair).

There has been plenty of discussion regarding the struggles of the Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci pair throughout the past few years. But in the 2023-24 regular-season, Nurse and Ceci’s flaws were much less detrimental towards the team’s record due to just how strong the top and bottom pairings were.

Heading into 2024-25, Edmonton’s second pair remains an even greater uncertainty. Ty Emberson is projected to be Nurse’s partner at 2RD, but considering Emberson’s lack of experience – he has only played 30 NHL GP in his career – there is no guarantee he will excel. It doesn’t seem like Troy Stecher will be a particularly great option, either. Unless one of them exceeds expectations, the Oilers will likely need to acquire a 2RD via trade by the 2025 trade deadline.

As such, I believe it is critical for Edmonton to have an effective third-pair at the very least. The Oilers cannot place all of their hopes on Ekholm and Bouchard at 5-on-5, and so with the second-pair already being such a big question mark, it would not be wise to simply dismiss who the 3RD spot belongs to.

All things considered, I sincerely hope Josh Brown silences my doubts and develops into a reliable third-pairing defenceman for the Oilers next to Brett Kulak. However, at the current moment, the overwhelming body of evidence suggests that Edmonton’s most optimal lineup does not consist of Brown.