On Monday, The Chicago Bears’ front office and new interim head coach met the media following the firing of Matt Eberflus on Friday after a humiliating coaching blunder on Thanksgiving. Eberflus’ dismissal will mean that Chicago will be conducting their third head coaching search in the past eight seasons, as it will be up to general manager Ryan Poles to select the right candidate. Depending on who Poles hires, the Bears’ general manager will be tasked with potentially overhauling the defensive roster to match the future head coach’s desire defensive scheme, something that wasn’t fully accomplished even before the prior head coach was fired last week.
Ryan Poles may have to overhaul Chicago’s defense after trying to build it to suit Matt Ebeflus’ scheme
When the Bears hired Ryan Poles back in January of 2022, the new general manager came into a situation where the roster at the time was in need of a complete overhaul, especially on defense. Chicago’s defense had aged since being the best defensive unit in the league back in 2018 and was saddled with several expensive contracts for players that didn’t fit Eberflus’ Cover-2 defensive scheme. In less than a year, Poles traded elite talent on defense including, All-Pro Khalil Mack, linebacker Roquan Smith, and Pro Bowl defensive end Robert Quinn, who was coming off a historic 2021 season with Chicago.
Poles oversaw a defensive transition from a 3-4 scheme to a Cover-2 scheme, which requires completely different personnel to execute the defense to utmost success. a key example is when it comes to the defensive line in how a 3-4 front requires larger lineman to eat up blockers to allow linebackers to rush while the Cover-2 is predicated on leaner lineman able to consistently rush the quarterback. The outside linebacker position in a 3-4 is the most significant position while the middle linebacker or a three-technique defensive tackle is vital to the success of the Cover-2.
For the two and a half seasons that Eberflus was the Bears’ head coach, his defense struggled significantly for almost a year and a half, as they were the worst defense in the NFL in 2022 because they lacked sufficient talent to successfully run the Cover-2 defense. The most glaring hole was a lack of a constant pass rush from the defensive line, something that didn’t improve until Poles traded for Pro Bowl defensive end Montez Sweat at last year’s trade deadline. Through three draft classes, the only standout defensive lineman Ryan Poles has drafted has been Gervon Dexter Sr.
With the names building on potential candidates for the Chicago’s head coaching vacancy, there is a more likely chance that Poles will hire someone that will have the desire of deploying a 3-4 scheme on defense. There are only a few candidates who may keep a 4-3 base for the defense such as Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, and current interim head coach Thomas Brown are only candidates that may keep the current system in place for continuity purposes. The other candidates on Ryan Poles’ list would likely want to transition to a 3-4 base, which would include Mike Vrabel, Bill Belichick, Mike McDaniel, Kliff Kingsbury, and Kyle Shanahan.
Hiring any of the 3-4 scheme coaches would result in Ryan Poles needing to emphasis defensive roster adjustments this offseason and next, as several starters would need to be added. Poles’ inability to find a quality three-technique defensive tackle during Eberflus’ three seasons’ head coach was a concern for the defense, as the defensive line was expected to be addressed heavily following the end of the 2024 season. It will be a very intriguing to see if Chicago’s general manager can find a game-wrecking edge rusher or an anchor nose tackle for a potential 3-4 defensive scheme for next season.
A defensive overhaul undercuts Ryan Poles’ chance to maximize Caleb Williams’ Rookie Contract
Avoiding a potential defensive scheme change which would lead to a defensive roster change is likely one of the reasons as to why Poles chose to retain Eberflus as head coach after the 2023 season. Despite Chicago’s defense leading the league in interceptions and doubling his win total from 2022, many analysts and fans felt the head coach should of being fired to pair a coach with the incoming Caleb WIlliams. In fairness to Ryan Poles, the team would have been closer to a playoff berth if Eberflus’ hadn’t struggled in late-game time management moments, resulting in the team’s six game losing-streak.
The goal was to maximize the team’s window of success while Williams was on his rookie contract, which will have him in Chicago through the 2028 season, before having to sign a sizeable contract-extension. With the likely defensive change, the window is placed in jeopardy as there could be a delay in making the playoffs in 2025 and potentially in 2026, if the defense struggles because of the defensive personnel being adjusted for a new scheme. There could be a chance that the Bears offense is really good, but losses still happen because the defense struggles with the change.
A key example of issues rising because of a defensive scheme change from year-to-year was in 2013 when the Bears moved from a Cover-2 style to a traditional 4-3 style. Chicago’s defense went from a top ten unit in 2012 and ten wins to the worst statistical unit in the NFL in 2013. Ryan Poles’ job could be a risk by 2025 if the defensive personnel changes and there are struggles because it couldn’t draft the best talent to execute the scheme.
Poles is not only tasked with finding the best candidate available to help develop Williams as a quarterback, but he also needs to be able to find the right players to play in the new defense in 2024. He had the right idea in mind when keeping Eberflus after last season to avoid defensive changes, along with the offensive personnel changes made after 2023. Almost a year later, Ryan Poles is in the position he was trying to avoid, but now there is more pressure to be successful in executing the personnel change now that there are four years left on Williams’ contract.
