Over the next few days, the Miami Heat must decide whether going all-in on Kevin Durant is the right path to take this offseason. While it may seem like an extremely bold risk to take, there are a few recent examples Miami can gain confidence from to pull the trigger.
In many ways, every NBA trade is a risk. However, there's always some added danger when a team is going to have to part ways with multiple rotation players, a young player or two, and then multiple draft assets. If the Heat is going to get a deal done for KD, it's going to be costly. Because of KD's age and contract, there's going to be some natural hesitance on this idea.
But some of the better recent blockbuster deals revolved around big risks that would eventually equate to tangible rewards. Let's take a look at a few recent examples of teams that, in the moment, were taking a somewhat reckless gamble on a star player via trade that ended up working out in the end.
Kyrie Irving to Dallas
When the Dallas Mavericks traded for Kyrie Irving at the 2023 NBA Trade Deadline, there were many who believed they were being foolish. Kyrie had been an inconsistent and unreliable player during his time with the Boston Celtics and then the Brooklyn Nets. For a while, it did seem as if Kyrie was reaching a boiling point in his career.
Still, despite all that negative noise and concern, the Mavs' decision to trade for Kyrie paid off. Kyrie played a huge role in the team's run to the NBA Finals during the 2023-24 NBA season. If the Mavs hadn't gone rogue and traded away Luka Doncic, Dallas was going to emerge as a dangerous dark horse in the postseason.
Kyrie is currently working his way back from a knee injury, but there's no question the Mavs made the right decision to take a gamble on him a couple of years ago.
Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland
During the summer of 2022, the Utah Jazz believed it was time to blow up the roster and spark a rebuild. That offseason, the Jazz traded Mitchell to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, Ochai Agbaji, three unprotected first-round draft picks (2025, 2027, 2029), and two pick swaps (2026 and 2028).
Why was this a big risk for Cleveland? Simple. The Cavs were not on Mitchell's list of preferred landing spots, and they gave up a ton. Was there a chance that Mitchell could leave in free agency a couple of years later? Sure. However, the Cavs took the risk, and their winning ways led to a long-term contract extension and some encouraging momentum for the team.
The Cavs took the risk and it paid off.
Jimmy Butler to Miami (S&T)
Looking back, there's even an example of the Heat taking a big risk. Back in 2019, the Heat took a big gamble by signing and trading for Jimmy Butler. As a player known to cause some locker room angst, the Heat believed their culture would be a perfect fit for Jimmy.
Before it all blew up in their face, the Jimmy experiment in Miami worked pretty well. He had his most successful run as an NBA player with the Heat as he helped lead them to two NBA Finals and three conference finals.
Kawhi Leonard to Toronto
The best example in recent history of a team taking a huge risk on an uncertain risk is when the Toronto Raptors traded for Kawhi Leonard during the 2018 offseason. After missing practically all of the 2017-18 season with an injury, the Raptors were taking a huge risk on a star player who also just had one year left on his contract.
The result? An NBA Championship. Even though Kawhi did end up leaving in free agency after one season in Toronto, it was all worth it for the Raptors because he did help them get to the top of the mountain.
The question is, can KD be this type of player for the Heat? Surely it's a big risk, but can he defy the odds and make the gamble worth it in the long run?
