Ravens Have Major ‘Scheme Advantage’ in ‘Terrible Matchup’ vs. Bills

If you’re looking for one reason why the Baltimore Ravens can dominate the Buffalo Bills on the road in the AFC Divisional playoffs, it’s not Lamar Jackson or even Derrick Henry. Instead, the Raven have a major “scheme advantage” that makes the game on Sunday, January 19 a “terrible matchup” for the Bills, despite their homefield advantage at Highmark Stadium.

The schematic edge involves personnel the Ravens use on offense and how they compare with the groupings the Bills deploy most often defensively. Specifically, Baltimore uses run-heavy sets against Buffalo’s multiple-defensive backs formations.

As Garrett Podell of CBS Sports detailed, “The Ravens utilize at least two tight ends in their formations on the highest rate in the NFL (47.9% of their plays) in 2024, and they use multiple running backs, mainly Henry and 6-foot-3, 300-pound fullback Patrick Ricard, on the third-highest rate of their plays (38.4%) in the league.”

Podell believes “That’s a terrible matchup for the Bills, who play their base defense at the lowest rate (4% of their plays) in the league this season. Meaning, Buffalo heavily prefers to use the speed of sub-packages like nickel (five defensive backs on the field) dime (six defensive backs on the field) or quarter (seven or more defensive backs on the field). Buffalo was in its base defense at a much higher rate than normal, 26%, in Week 4, but that didn’t help them a whole lot.”

The last line about the Bills trying to adjust but still failing to stop the Ravens on the ground in Week 4 is significant. Especially after the way Henry, Jackson and Co. ran over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round.

Ravens Can Overpower Lightweight Bills

Baltimore’s offense ground out 271 rushing yards against the Bills during a 35-10 win in the regular season. That performance set the patten for the season, namely one where the Ravens overpower a defense with Henry and Jackson running behind heavy fronts.

Those fronts are created by putting 300-pound All-Pro fullback Patrick Ricard into the lineup. He’s usually joined by at least two tight ends from a group consisting of Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar.

Not only does this group give the Ravens a huge weight and numbers advantage in the trenches. It can also create confusion about which direction runs will go and who will carry the ball.

A good example was this Jackson touchdown run from the first meeting, highlighted by Doug Farrar of Athlon Sports. Farrar explained how the Ravens had “Two tight ends blocking to the right out of a full house backfield. The RG and RT pull left, and there’s a read keeper in the middle of all that with Lamar running. Good luck, Bills.”

It’ll take more than luck for the Bills to do a better job against the Ravens’ heavy sets this time. The problem is the Bills don’t possess enough monsters in the middle to match the Ravens pound for pound.

Bills Lack the Personnel to Counter Mismatch in the Trenches

Buffalo’s D-line simply isn’t big enough to handle the Ravens on the deck. Not when tackle DaQuan Jones is the only starter over 300 pounds.

Jones is 6-foot-4 and 320 pounds, but the Ravens have five starters on the offensive line who are the plus side of 300. When this group is supplemented by Ricard, a tight end and even an extra lineman, the Bills can forget about stopping any running play.

The Steelers couldn’t stop this touchdown run by Henry, highlighted by ESPN’s Matt Bowen. Ricard (42) was in the backfield behind Kolar (88), who was stacked next to right tackle. The left side of the line was overloaded thanks to additional tackle Josh Jones (74).

This trio gave the Ravens an extra 900-plus pounds on the field, and the Steelers never had a chance. Jones chipped two players, defensive end Keeanu Benton (95) and inside linebacker Elandon Roberts (50), while Ricard trapped edge-rusher Alex Highsmith (56). Meanwhile, Kolar hit Jeremiah Moon (49) on the other side of the formation, all adding up to Henry bulldozing in for six.

Elaborate designs like this are why Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken is getting interviews for head coach vacancies. They are also why the Bills have more to focus on defensively than trying to simulate Jackson.

The latter is in a tussle with his Bills counterpart Josh Allen for another MVP award. Allen will also take some stopping, but the Bills perhaps should be more worried about the straight-ahead power and overwhelming mass the Ravens can deploy anywhere on the field.