Ravens, Derrick Henry Warned About Regression After ‘Incredible Luck’

If the Baltimore Ravens expect to win 12 or more games during the 2025 NFL season, they are in for a rude awakening. At least according to oddsmakers willing to go against the grain regarding what many perceive to be arguably the most Super Bowl-ready roster in the league.

That’s not a view shared by Vic Tafur of The Athletic. He’s taking the under on this year’s Ravens winning 11.5 games or more.

Tafur bases his argument on “the incredible luck the Ravens had last year. Baltimore lost just 16.3 adjusted games to injury last season (7.7 on offense), by far the fewest in the league per BetMGM.”

For this luck to hold, the Ravens would need brilliant but brittle left tackle Ronnie Stanley to play all 17 games again. It was the only time Stanley’s managed to complete a full season during his nine-year career.

Stanley staying healthy isn’t even the biggest worry, according to Tafur. That dubious distinction belongs to bulldoxing running back Derrick Henry.

Tafur pointed out that “while no one expects Derrick Henry to hit a wall at 31, there has to be some regression for the Ravens on the injury front as well as with Henry, who averaged 4.2 yards a carry in 2023 and 5.9 in 2024.”

It seems a little fanciful to accuse the Ravens of being lucky in 2024. Particularly when it comes to Henry’s performances, which backed him as one of the enduring talents of the modern game.

Derrick Henry, Ravens Didn’t Need Luck to Win

Henry defied father time by rushing for 1,921 yards as a 30-plus RB1. He proved he still retains formidable brute force and almost preternatural breakaway speed for a 252-pounder.

Those things helped Henry become the ultimate finisher for a maturing Baltimore offense. The Ravens had long been defined by heavy running and little else, but 2024 saw two-time NFL MVP, quarterback Lamar Jackson make strides in coordinator Todd Monken’s system.

Jackson threw a career-high 41 touchdown passes, compared to just four interceptions, numbers borne from merit, rather than luck. His evolution as a passer, along with the progress made by a narrative-changing pass-catcher like wide receiver Rashod Bateman, forms the best argument to believe the Ravens and Henry won’t suffer a regression this year.

Ravens’ Opponents Can’t Lock In on Derrick Henry

Loading the box to stop Henry was tough enough when Jackson’s own threat as a runner menaced defenses most. Like when a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense locked in on Jackson gave up this 13-yard burst from Henry, per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell.

Things have changed since, and not for the better for those facing the Ravens. Namely, because opponents are now equally, if not more, concerned with Jackson’s arm talent.

Those concerns will increase after Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta brought five-time Pro Bowl wideout DeAndre Hopkins into the fold. Hopkins is 33, but he still has a knack for making the impossible possible in the contested-catch department, and the decorated veteran will also expand the pass-heavy personnel groupings Monken gets to put onto the field.

Teams focused on stymying Jackson and his receivers, led by Hopkins, will still find themselves vulnerable to the brilliance of Henry. The latter was able to run against a light front, “six or fewer defenders in the box,” on 53.2 percent of his carries last season, per Player Profiler.

Jackson’s receivers have only gotten better since, so Henry should be in for another big year inspired by skill and scheme, not merely the product of good fortune.