Rams QB Matthew Stafford Expected to Make Critical Improvement

   

The Los Angeles Rams finished the 2024 season strong, but Matthew Stafford and Co. got off to a rough start. They began the campaign 1-4, with Stafford completing 67.4% of his passes for 1,238 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford Expected to Make Critical Improvement

A 9-2 finish with Stafford posting a 2,524-17-5 line on 64.9% completion did not completely mask one key deficiency, though.

Stafford ranked 31st on third and fourth downs, per Sharp Football Analysis’ Warren Sharp.

Stafford ranked second in EPA per dropback (plus-.20), third in success rate at 52%, and ninth in yards per attempt at a 7.8 clip on early downs. On late downs, however, Stafford ranked 31st, 29th, and 31st, respectively, on the money downs, per Sharp on May 22.

Notably, former Rams QB Jared Goff was the best QB on third and fourth downs, per Sharp.

best QBs on 3rd/4th down last year

1. Jared Goff
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Josh Allen
4. Lamar Jackson
5. Baker Mayfield
6. Tua Tagovailoa
7. Brock Purdy
8. Kirk Cousins
9. Derek Carr
10. Joe Burrow
11. Jayden Daniels
12. Justin Herbert
13. Jameis Winston
14. Bo Nix
15. Jalen Hurts

However, Sharp called Stafford’s splits “anomalies.” Sharp also expressed confidence that the QB’s “likely” improvement will help the Rams “a lot.”

Pro Football Focus’ John Kosko ranked Stafford as his No. 7 QB ahead of the 2025 season.

“Stafford isn’t coming off his best season — his 74.7 overall grade in 2024 reflects that — but what keeps him in this upper tier is his complete command of the Rams offense,” Kosko wrote on May 20. “Despite playing behind a shaky offensive line and losing multiple top weapons to injury, he was still a drive away from knocking off the eventual Super Bowl champions in the divisional round. When Stafford is locked in, he is as good as anyone in football.


Rams’ Season Ended in Fitting Fashion

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

GettyLos Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford #9 is sacked by Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter #98 late in the game during the NFC Division playoffs.

Notably, the Rams’ season came to an end on a third-and-2, when Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter sacked Stafford in the NFC Divisional Playoff.

Stafford and the Rams, trailing 28-22, started at their 18-yard line. Stafford completed six of eight passes for 74 yards, getting the Rams to the Eagles’ 13-yard line, overcoming two incompletions and a false start from right guard Kevin Dotson.

Carter’s sack pushed the Rams back to the Eagles’ 22-yard line.

The Rams’ QB then threw his third incompletion of the drive on his final pass of the game, attempting to find wide receiver Puka Nacua.

The Eagles went on to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl.


Rams OL Must Step Up Around Matthew Stafford

Kevin Dotson, Los Angeles Rams

GettyRob Havenstein #79, Kevin Dotson #69, Beaux Limmer #50, Steve Avila #73 and Alaric Jackson #77 of the Los Angeles Rams line up against the Minnesota Vikings during the NFC Wild Card Playoff.

Stafford’s performance on third and fourth down could indeed say as much about his supporting cast as it does him. ESPN ranked the Rams’ pass protection 20th in November 2024. Pro Football Focus ranked them 30th.

Conversely, the Lions ranked 12th (ESPN) and 14th (PFF).

Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints) and Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) were the only QBs in the top-10 on third and fourth down whose protection ranked worse than Stafford’s in 2024.

Tagovailoa, who has a history of injuries, missed six games last season. Carr missed six and made the medical-based decision to retire this offseason. Both players are at least three years younger than Stafford, who only missed the 2024 regular season finale due to rest.

The Rams did not make any improvements to their offensive line, so it must come from Stafford.

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