Rams have taken a different approach this season on fourth down

The Los Angeles Rams under head coach Sean McVay have historically been a conservative team when it comes to going for it on fourth down. As the NFL has embraced more of analytics approach, teams are beginning to go for it on fourth downs a lot more often. However, McVay has typically been conservative in those situations, punting or kicking a field goal.

However, this past offseason, McVay made an addition to his coaching staff that suggested he may take a different approach in 2024. During the offseason, the Rams hired a game management coordinator in John Streicher who came from the Tennessee Titans. Streicher helped Mike Vrabel with in-game decisions and overall game management.

Again, it made a lot of sense that the Rams would want to take a different, more modern approach here when it comes to fourth downs. They ranked 27th in win percentage gained from going for it on fourth down in 2023. Hiring a coach that could take that responsibility off of McVay’s plate made a lot of sense.

 Ben Baldwin

The hire of Streicher has already paid off five weeks into the 2024 season. Through the first five weeks, the Rams have gone from one of the most conservative teams to one of the most aggressive. So far this season, the Rams are 6-for-11 on fourth downs. Their 11 attempts are tied for the fifth most. Among teams with at least five fourth down attempts, their 54.6 percent success rate is the 11th best.

It can be difficult to make a clear decision when the results don’t always have a positive outcome. It’s certainly possible that negative experience led to McVay not going for it as often as he should have in the past. By hiring Streicher, McVay brought in somebody who could help make an unbiased decision for him.

Ben Baldwin

The important thing here is to separate the decision from the result itself. Just because a fourth down play had a negative outcome does not mean that it was a poor decision. The decision and result are two separate entities. It’s up to the coach to have the right play-call and the players to execute the situation

For example, in Sunday’s game against the Green Bay Packers, McVay opted to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the four yard line. According to both Ben Baldwin’s model and ESPN Analytics, that was a “go” situation. If the Rams had scored a touchdown on the play, nobody is questioning the decision to go for it. However, because Matthew Stafford’s pass went out of the back of the end zone, McVay’s decision came under scrutiny. Again, the decision and game management aspect of the call was fine. Whether or not the play-call was the correct one is another story.

While the Rams missed the fourth down attempt, they pinned the Packers deep in their own territory at the four-yard line. With a three-and-out, the defense got off the field and offense was given a short field with 55-yards to score instead of the typical 70+ yards. The Rams offense ended up going for it on fourth down once again on the ensuing drive and scoring a touchdown because of it.

It’s easy to say that the Rams lost three points in that situation. However, pinning the Packers close to their own end zone and getting the short field resulted in a touchdown. In reality, the Rams gained four points out of that rather than just three.

Out of the 11 times that the Rams have gone for it this season, seven of those have come with potential points on the line. In those situation, the Rams have gained 10 points in total.

The Rams currently sit at 1-4, so it’s hard to say that the aggressive decision-making on fourth down has paid off. With that said, the fake punt against the 49ers resulted in a touchdown drive and the Rams don’t win without that play.

It’s still very early in the season so we’ll see if this trend from McVay continues. With that said, it’s clear McVay found a flaw in his process and found someone who can help. Up to this point in the season it has resulted in the Rams taking a much different approach on fourth downs.