Getty Raiders projected 2025 signee Sam Darnold
There are two aspects of the 2024 season that should, perhaps, make an unsightly year a bit more bearable for the Raiders faithful. The first is that, should the team continue to slide as the offense sputters, Davante Adams waits for a trade and Maxx Crosby (with good reason) blows a gasket, a sparkling 2025 draft pick awaits and one of the top quarterbacks in a group that includes Shedeur Sanders, Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck Cam Ward, and Jalen Milroe, should find their way to the Raiders.
Or, the Raiders could find themselves sitting on a pile of free-agent money next March, in a strong position to make a run at a free agent capable of giving them quality quarterback play. No free agent figures to attract attention on the market quite like Sam Darnold of the Vikings will, and the fact that he has the Vikings sitting at 5-0 has only continuously upped his value.
The Vikings are not likely to keep him, barring a run to the Super Bowl, not with 2024 No. 10 pick JJ McCarthy waiting in the wings. That means Darnold will be a true free agent, a rarity on the NFL market. And no team will be in better position to get him than the Raiders.
Spotrac contract guru Mike Ginnitti, the site’s managing editor, did not hesitate when asked this week about where he thought Darnold’s future lies:
“Four years, $160 million to the Las Vegas Raiders,” he said on the “Spotrac Podcast.”
Raiders Have Not Gotten Much From QBs
Of course, we are a long way from Darnold starring in 2025 NFL free agency, not with just a five-game sample to go on. Remember, Darnold was the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft, and struggled badly with the Jets before he was jettisoned to the Panthers, before he was benched there and landed with the 49ers as Brock Purdy’s backup.
Darnold came into the season with 56 starts under his belt, and had gone 21-35 in his career. He had 63 touchdowns and 56 interceptions entering the year, and though he now has 11 TDs and four picks thrown this season, it will take a longer stretch of success to truly erase his history of failure.
But considering the foibles of the Raiders quarterbacks—starter Gardner Minshew and last year’s starter, Aidan O’Connell—Darnold would have a low threshold to clear to improve the position. The Raiders are 20thin the NFL with six touchdown passes, and 29th with five interceptions.
Sam Darnold, $160 Million Man?
It is fair for the Raiders, or anyone for that matter, to wonder what, exactly, they’d be getting in Darnold. Four years and $160 million is a lot to pay a player who has been a journeyman to this point, but Ginnitti compared Darnold to Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, another QB who bounced around before finding a home.
Mayfield signed a three-year, $100 million contract with Tampa Bay this offseason. Darnold’s $160 million be about the same, bumped up to reflect the higher salary cap.
“Why is it all coming together? Is it that they’ve grown up?” Ginnitti said last week. “I think to some degree yes, the game has slowed down for them, they really do have a handle on NFL defenses and scheming. That’s definitely part of it. They’ve been coached up. They have personally put in the work.
“The majority part of it is the team. I know this is the most cliché thing in the world to say, but they finally found a fit.”
Darnold’s deal with Minnesota was for one season at $10 million.
“It’s a one for $10 (million). …” he said. “As long as he can stay healthy throughout the whole season. And then what? It’s been four outstanding weeks, and he is a Top 5 quarterback. That would have been a laughable statement even six months ago as he was scouring free agency.”
But it fits now. And it could be the Raiders who are first in line to add him next.
