One month into the season, experts have seen enough. The Chicago Bears got it wrong at quarterback yet again. They took Caleb Williams when they could’ve had Jayden Daniels. Washington’s #2 overall pick has completed 82% of his passes for 897 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He also has 218 yards rushing and four touchdowns. The Heisman winner is the heavy favorite for Rookie of the Year. Williams, meanwhile, has completed 61% of his passes for 787 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions.
People have seen all they need to see. It’s a repeat of last year. The #2 overall pick is superior to #1. There is no possibility at all that a young quarterback might be getting off to a slow start while another gets hot, right? In truth, plenty of evidence suggests the final outcome is far from certain between these two. Since implementing the current draft setup, quarterbacks have gone #1 and #2 eight times, not including this year.
Here is who they are, their rookie year passer ratings, and their career results.
1993:
- #1 pick – Drew Bledsoe – 65.0 passer rating
- #2 pick – Rick Mirer – 67.0 passer rating
Result: Bledsoe went to four Pro Bowls and two Super Bowls and won a title. Mirer became a backup after four seasons
1998:
- #1 pick – Peyton Manning – 71.2 passer rating
- #2 pick – Ryan Leaf – 39.0 passer rating
Result: Manning became one of the greatest of all time. Leaf is still considered the greatest bust ever.
1999:
- #1 pick – Tim Couch – 73.2 passer rating
- #2 pick – Donovan McNabb – 60.1 passer rating
Result: Couch never reached his full potential, being mediocre and injury-prone. McNabb went to six Pro Bowls and reached a Super Bowl.
2012:
- #1 pick – Andrew Luck – 76.5 passer rating
- #2 pick – Robert Griffin III – 102.4 passer rating
Result: Luck made four Pro Bowls but retired early due to injuries. Griffin III won Rookie of the Year was saw his career ruined by injuries.
2015:
- #1 pick – Jameis Winston – 84.2 passer rating
- #2 pick – Marcus Mariota – 91.5 passer rating
Result: Neither lived up to their potential. Winston did make a Pro Bowl and throw for 5,000 yards one year. Mariota was good in 2016 and won a playoff game in 2017 but fell off quickly after that.
2016:
- #1 pick – Jared Goff – 63.6 passer rating
- #2 pick – Carson Wentz – 79.3 passer rating
Result: Wentz was an MVP hopeful in 2017, but injuries and erratic play saw him eventually relegated to backup. Goff is a three-time Pro Bowler who just went to his second NFC championship game.
2021:
- #1 pick – Trevor Lawrence – 71.9 passer rating
- #2 pick – Zach Wilson – 69.7 passer rating
Result: Lawrence went to a Pro Bowl and won a playoff game but has largely underachieved. Wilson was a mess in New York and is now a backup in Denver.
2023:
- #1 pick – Bryce Young – 73.7 passer rating
- #2 pick – C.J. Stroud – 100.8 passer rating
Result: Young lasted only 18 games before getting benched. Stroud won Rookie of the Year and a playoff game. He’s off to another strong start.
Caleb Williams has no reason to focus on Daniels.
Outside of their meeting later this year and possible playoff matchups in the future, their careers will have little to do with each other. Daniels getting off to a great start has no bearing on Williams’ situation. It is worth mentioning that Washington’s quarterback has taken on some pretty subpar defenses to start the season. Only one was ranked in the top 15, and it happened to be the one against which Daniels had his worst game. Meanwhile, Williams has faced the #1 defense, #5 defense, #32 defense, and #31 defense. It isn’t a coincidence that his recent progress came in the past two weeks.
The schedule often plays a big part in how rookies perform to start a season. Caleb Williams drew the short straw on that front. He seems to have gathered himself after a tough start. This doesn’t mean he’s going to overtake Daniels this year. His hot start might be all he needs to claim Rookie of the Year. However, it is also evident Williams is gaining a strong grasp of how to play quarterback in the traditional sense. His pre-snap recognition and pocket management have both looked better and better.
Let things play out before determining a young man’s career.
