Prediction for Broncos’ 2025 Win Total Should Excite Fans

The Sean Payton era with the Denver Broncos is off to a good start. After an 8-9 showing in 2023, last year saw the franchise get back to the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl L.

This time around, however, a mini-leap won’t catch anyone by surprise. The bar is set high for the Broncos in 2025-26, and rightfully so. With an over/under win total of 9.5, many are expecting Denver to compete for a postseason spot once again.

That includes Vic Tafur of The Athletic. In his story predicting the outcomes of each team’s upcoming season, he has the Broncos delivering a season their fan base will love.

Analyst Taking Over 9.5 Wins for Broncos in 2025

Tafur is taking the over for the Broncos. Not only would it give them another season with double-digit wins, but it’d be their first back-to-back stretch of that nature since 2014 and 2015.

While Tafur isn’t necessarily sold on Denver being a Super Bowl contender, he does think another playoff berth is a realistic goal.

“Everybody knows how wrong I was about Bo Nix last year,” Tafur wrote. “And I guess on how great a coach Sean Payton is. There has to be some regression this year, but that won’t interfere with the Broncos winning 10 or 11 games and challenging the Chiefs for the division crown. That’s because the defense ranked first in EPA per play last season and is better this season. Denver drafted cornerback Jahdae Barron, added free agents Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, plus re-signed run stuffer D.J. Jones. The offense added hard-nosed rookie running back RJ Harvey, the offensive line is pretty good and, free fantasy tip, draft tight end Evan Engram one or two rounds higher than you were planning to.”

It’s hard to argue against Tafur’s logic. Last season, the Broncos were the NFL’s No. 7 team in point differential with a rookie quarterback at the helm. That’s incredibly difficult to do. Not only did they maintain most of their defensive status, but the offensive line is once again projected to thrive in 2025. That, paired with the aforementioned additions, very well might prevent a step back in the win column.

A middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule certainly doesn’t hurt, either.

Much of Denver’s Success Likely Tied to Quarterback Bo Nix

At the end of the day, the Broncos’ season outcome could fall on Nix’s shoulders. On the positive side, he has excellent protection up front and should benefit from a decent run game. The other side of the ball sets a high floor for the club. Payton, while maybe not the iconic play-designer he once was, remains a quality head coach. The marriage between he and Nix couldn’t have gotten off to a much better start.

Perspectives on Nix’s debut campaign are mixed. A quick look at the box score (3,775 yards and 29 passing touchdowns) indicates he turned in a great rookie year. Pass rusher Nik Bonitto is expecting “really good things” from 2024’s No. 12 overall NFL Draft pick.

In contrast, a fantasy analyst recently painted a picture of Nix being overhyped. Lower-third ranks in advanced stats like completion percentage over expected (21st) and success rate (22nd) mean there’s room to improve.

That creates a conundrum many good teams deal with. The sophomore slump versus second-year leap debate will go on until Nix falls on either side of the spectrum.

If the Broncos hit that previous over on wins, it’ll likely be the good side.