This may be an insane thing to do but let’s give it a shot. I’m going to try to predict how many points per game each Miami Heat player will average.
Don’t worry, I have a system.
Using Basketball Reference’s per 36 minute projections and combining that with our own minutes-per-game projections, we can come up with a ballpark prediction of how many points every Heat player (besides rookies, who don’t have any data to base our projections off of) will average.
Here’s what every veteran Heat player averaged in points per game last season versus our projection for this coming season.
Bam Adebayo: 19.3 ➡️ 19.5
Jimmy Butler: 20.8 ➡️ 21.1
Tyler Herro: 20.8 ➡️ 20.6
Terry Rozier: 16.4 ➡️ 18.7
Haywood Highsmith: 6.1 ➡️ 6.5
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 11.9 ➡️ 13.4
Duncan Robinson: 12.9 ➡️ 12.4
Josh Richardson: 9.9 ➡️ 6.1
Nikola Jović: 7.7 ➡️ 8.3
Kevin Love: 8.8 ➡️ 7.3
Thomas Bryant: 5.7 ➡️ 4.6
Alec Burks*: 6.5 ➡️ 8.0
(*Stats based on last season with the Knicks)
Projected risers: Adebayo, Butler, Rozier, Highsmith, Jaquez, Jovic and Burks.
Adebayo’s increase is slight, just 0.2 points per game. But these projections don’t take into account a full season of Bam shooting 3s. If he averaged 1.5 3s per game (which is what he averaged over the final 20 games of last season) and gets to the rim more consistently, there’s no reason why Bam couldn’t match his career-high 20.4 points per game.
I’m a little dubious that Rozier increases his scoring output by more than 2 points per game. Rozier is certainly capable of averaging 20, but if he’s cast into more of a playmaking role alongside Herro, Adebayo and Butler, those shots might be harder to come by.
Butler averaged his fewest points (20.8) in four years last season. Increasing that to 21.1 would be the second lowest in a five-year span. The Heat need more than that from their star player.
Jaquez and Jovic increasing their production is a must for this team to climb the standings and make a deep run. These projections seem a bit conservative. There’s room for them to blow them out.
Projected fallers: Herro, Robinson, Richardson, Love, Bryant
My guess is that Herro will be in the rising category by the end of the season. If he embraces more of an off-ball role and increases his 3-point volume, there’s an opportunity for Herro to average a career-high in points even while having the ball in his lands less. That should at least be the sales pitch by the coaching staff.
Duncan Robinson had a strong season, but a slight dip would be good for the Heat because it would mean the team was healthier and not relying on Robinson to be as much of a playmaker (which would let him focus on doing what he does at an elite level: shooting the ball).
