The evolution of Lamar Jackson as an NFL QB has been fascinating to watch over the years, culminating with the best year of his career through the air.
After showing continued progress as a passer in both years in Baltimore Ravens‘ OC Todd Monken’s system, is Jackson due for some regression in 2025?
Has Lamar Jackson Hit His Ceiling as a Passer in the NFL?
After posting 4,172 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns to go with another 915 rushing yards and four more scores on the ground… What exactly is the ceiling for Lamar Jackson?
Well, PFF NFL Analyst Nathan Jahnke pinpointed one stat from Lamar’s passing production that could be in regression for the 2025 NFL season.
Jahnke wrote, “We should expect some of Jackson’s extreme stats to regress in 2025. For example, he threw a touchdown on 8.6% of his passes last year. Since 1970, there have been only three cases of a quarterback achieving a touchdown rate of 7% or better in back-to-back seasons. In all three cases, the second season was below 8%… Jackson was extremely good at his touchdown and interception rate. Those two will likely not be as strong this season.”
In some ways, pointing out this stat feels like suggesting this passing production can’t be sustained and should be considered an outlier. Yet, Lamar has proven the modern methods of analyzing QB play don’t always apply to him because of his unique skillset.
Jahnke does correctly point out the statistical likelihood of regression, which is totally fair, but doubting Jackson continues to play at a high level feels like a losing bet considering the exceptional level of play we have seen from him over the last two years.
Is Todd Monken Quietly Lowering Lamar Jackson’s Rushing Workload?
Another interesting stat Jahnke zeroed in on involved a closer look at his rushing usage.
Jahnke added, “His rushing, in particular, has been declining. His percentage of designed runs has decreased from earlier in his career, and he scrambled less often last year compared to past years. Quarterbacks generally run less often over time, which has been true for Jackson. The question is: How much will that drop off this year? He will likely break the record for rushing attempts by a quarterback this season.”
Jackson went from 148 carries in 2023 to 139 in 2024, which doesn’t feel like a huge drop off, but could begin to show up in the box scores a bit more often as Jackson enters his 30s.
On the flip side, Jackson was still electric as a runner last season with an average of 6.58 yards per carry, which was the third-highest mark of his career.
Jahnke concluded, “Jackson’s improvements as a passer made 2024 particularly special. His big-time throw rate and turnover-worthy throw rate were already strong for quarterbacks, but he took steps further in the right direction in 2024. This led to more passing yards per game and a career-high in touchdowns while only throwing four interceptions.”
Ultimately, it is easier to bet on Jackson’s otherwordly production even regressing to the mean. Yet, Jackson looks like he keeps coming back better than ever every single year.
The odds say some regression is in session, but I’m not willing to bet against Lamar.
