It started with a simple, well-informed post from Danny Phantom about Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott in which he noted several key stats noting his success with past groups of wide receivers.
Phantom pointed out: How the Prescott-led Cowboys won 13 games with Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley in 2016; How he led the NFL in points with Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb in 2021; and then again with Lamb and Brandin Cooks in 2023. He concluded with the question: "What will he doo with CeeDee and (George) Pickens?"
It's a great question but it quickly turned into something bigger when aggregator account JPA Football posed another question: Is he a sleeper for MVP?
I've seen many answers to that question that, in my opinion, are having the wrong conversation about Prescott.
"Dak was the MVP runner-up the last time he played a full season," Cowboys content creator Landon Hollifield posted. "The word 'sleeper' is a non-qualifier. This is simply an MVP candidate."
"Easily, he’s honestly not a sleeper if Dak is healthy number wise he’ll have MVP caliber stats," another content creator, J Tuck, added.
I don't believe Hollifield nor Tuck are wrong but the conversation shouldn't just surround around what Prescott can or will do in 2025. I fully agree with their message: Dak is two seasons removed from being the runner-up for MVP and a second-team All-Pro quarterback. Now, he has even better weapons to achieve MVP numbers.
But whether we like it or not, Dak is a sleeper and the reason is not all about him. Even if the oddsmakers wind up being wrong, the Cowboys are a team not projected to make the playoffs. They might make it—I believe they'll be somewhere in the eight to 11-win range—but from a national point of view, they're not expected to make it to postseason football.
And no, it isn't because the media hates America's Team or anything like that. We're talking about betting odds here, which are set through the wisdom of the crowds, including sharp bettors, public money, and advanced mathematical models.
Regardless of what ends up happening in the future, the win expectation for the Cowboys is currently set at 7.5 wins. That automatically makes Prescott an MVP sleeper because here's the thing: You pretty much have to earn the No. 1 or No. 2 seed to walk away with the "individual" award.
Out of the 12 MVP winners since 2013, nine have held the No. 1 seed of their respective conference the year they won the iconic award. The only exceptions were two seeds: Matt Ryan in 2016, Aaron Rodgers in 2014, and Josh Allen in 2024.
In other words, history tells us Prescott and the Cowboys need to win around 13 games for him to be in the mix for MVP. That would mean exceeding win expectations by five games. We need to put fandom aside and admit that would be a surprise for a team with a first-year head coach, a questionable cornerback room for Week 1, and run defense concerns.
You never know in sports. But the Cowboys winning the division and establishing themselves as a top seed in the NFL would be a surprise for the NFL world. And it would naturally make Prescott a sleeper for the big award.
