Patrick Mahomes' 2025 Season Under Threat With The ‘Big Obstacle’ Looming!

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming up on the 2025-26 season quickly, and expectations are high for this team, as always. The Chiefs are one of the most successful franchises in the NFL for the past several years, if not most successful, so they’re always expected to win a slew of games and even go all the way.

The Chiefs are coming off a solid draft, and their first pick was rookie left tackle Josh Simmons. That draft pick was so important that one NFL analyst thinks Simmons will be the biggest X factor with the Chiefs this season.

In a piece published on Wednesday, August 13, for ESPN, the publication’s staff looks at each NFL team and predicts the win-loss record and X factor for each team. It’s early to predict the entire season record, but they did their best based on ESPN’s research and numbers. So, let’s get into their prediction for the Kansas City Chiefs, and it deals with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Simmons.

GettyQuarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts to fans as he walks off the field during the NFL Preseason.

Kansas City Chiefs’ X Factor

In the piece, ESPN explains their methodology for determining the win-loss records and X factors for each team. “To look at the bigger picture and just how good — or bad — every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI),” they explain. “The FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Research team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations.”

For the Chiefs, the ceiling is 13-4, and the floor is 8-9. It would be pretty dismal to see the Chiefs have an 8-9 season, and it likely won’t happen.

The X factor is Simmons. “The Chiefs are ready to have their offense become a spaceship again. But for that to happen, quarterback Patrick Mahomes will need time and proper protection with help from Simmons to load up his right arm,” Nate Taylor states in the feature.

He adds, “With few changes on defense, the most the Chiefs can improve on from last season is their offense, which they’d like to see consistently put 30 points on the scoreboard. If Simmons struggles, Mahomes will once again have to overcome a pretty big obstacle.”

So, let’s hope Simmons hits the ground running. He’s been impressing in practice, so it’s a good sign of things to come.

More Win-Loss Projections for the Chiefs

Bleacher Report has their own thoughts on how many games Mahomes and company will win in the 2025-26 season. In a piece published following the draft, Moe Moton predicts a 12-5 record for the Chiefs.

In the piece, Moton states that Kansas City has “question marks on the left side of their offensive line. Will Kingsley Suamataia have a smooth transition to left guard after a rough rookie term at tackle? Will rookie first-rounder Josh Simmons be ready for a full workload at left tackle?”