Packers’ riskiest free agency move in 2024 NFL offseason

The Green Bay Packers entered a rather pivotal 2024 NFL offseason this past winter after putting forth a pleasantly surprising effort during the 2023 season.

The Packers went 9-8 and snuck into the playoffs as a Wild Card. They then proceeded to rout Dallas Cowboys on the road in the Wild Card Round before ultimately falling to the San Francisco 49ers in a heartbreaker in the Divisional Round.

While the loss to the 49ers stung given that Green Bay took a lead into the fourth quarter, the Packers at least displayed that they have a very bright future.

Green Bay had some clear needs going into free agency and the draft, and it certainly addressed some of them.

However, the Packers threw a rather jarring move into the mix, signing running back Josh Jacobs to a four-year, $48 million deal.

Green Bay was not expected to be in the market for a top-tier halfback, so its decision to ink Jacobs to such a lucrative contract caught a lot of people off guard.

Why the Packers' signing of Josh Jacobs is risky

Let's just get something straight when it comes to the Jacobs contract.

On the surface, the deal looks intimidating. Four years at $12 million annually. However, only the first year of the contract is guaranteed, notes Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. The final three years of the deal are all team options for the Packers, so they can choose to terminate the pact at any time after 2024.

Still, Jacobs will be earning a tick under $14 million next season, which is still an awful lot for a running back. Especially in a rather pass-heavy offense like Green Bay's.

The Packers had to release mainstay Aaron Jones after signing Jacobs. Jones was very popular in the locker room and had been a steady contributor for the club ever since entering the NFL in 2017. Now, if Jacobs is healthy, he should represent an upgrade over Jones. A significant one, at that. But will Jacobs stay healthy? The 26-year-old is already dealing with a hamstring injury at offseason workouts, which absolutely has to raise some concern given his checkered medical history.

Jacobs was selected by the Oakland Raiders in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. In five seasons with the Raiders, Jacobs played one full season, and it happened to be the best year of his career in 2022 when he led the league with 1,653 rushing yards.

This past season, however, Jacobs missed four games due to injuries and ended up registering 805 yards and six touchdowns on the ground while averaging a meager 3.5 yards per carry. Consistency has also been an issue for Jacobs throughout his NFL tenure. He racked up 1,150 yards and logged 4.8 yards per attempt during his rookie campaign. The following year, he posted 1,065 yards but recorded a pedestrian 3.9 yards per tote. He then tallied four yards per carry in 2021 before his monster 2022 season.

So, I guess the question is, what version of Jacobs are the Packers getting?

In the case of Jones, when he was healthy, he was always efficient. He posted five yards per attempt in seven seasons in Green Bay. He averaged 5.5 yards per tote three times. He was also a rather reliable receiver out of the backfield, amassing 18 receiving touchdowns throughout his NFL tenure. Meanwhile, Jacobs has never reached the end zone as a pass-catcher in spite of hauling in over 50 receptions on two separate occasions.

Again, at his very best, Jacobs is superior to Jones. At least as a rusher. Rattling off over 1,600 yards is no joke. For comparison's sake, Jones has never even hit 1,200 yards in a single season. Jacobs' top shelf is higher than Jones' that isn't a question.

But the thing is, the Packers are paying about $14 million in 2024 for a running back who is probably more of a luxury than anything else.

Green Bay's offense is centered around Jordan Love and an incredibly impressive stable of young receivers. Jacobs can certainly serve as a brilliant complementary piece, but would the Packers have been better off signing a cheaper running back and platooning him with Jones instead of doling out big money for Jacobs?

This could end up being a massive coup for Green Bay if Jacobs rediscovers his 2022 form. The Packers' offense will be an absolute nightmare if that occurs. But there is also the chance that Jacobs has trouble staying healthy again and has another one of his seasons where he can't seem to break off big chunks of yardage.