One massive advantage the Lions have over the Bears and rest of NFC North in 2025

The schedule of an NFL team can have a big impact on its likelihood of success or failure each season.

1. Who their opponents are matters. That's largely pre-determined between the following:

• Teams in their division
• Teams from designated divisions that their division plays (rotation determined years in advance)
• Last season's rank in their division (informs opponents that round out schedule)

2. Where and when they face opponents also matters. This includes:

• Location (home field advantage vs. distance and travel times of away games)
• Weather impact (such as playing outdoors vs. indoors more in locations with hot or cold extreme weather)
• Timing of bye week
• Day and time of games

Day and time of games go beyond whether teams play better or prefer certain days or slots.
It also impacts each team's rest edge, as discussed in the article Teams Helped or Hurt by the NFL Schedule by Sharp Football Analysis.

They define rest edge as the number of extra days a team has to rest and prepare for their game over their opponent. This can affect individual games. It can also impact teams cumulatively across a season, known as net rest edge.

How is rest edge calculated?

Here are two examples for the Chicago Bears.

1. Week Two: Bears at Lions on Sunday, September 14

• Bears will be coming off a Monday Night Football game.
• Lions will have played on the previous Sunday,
• Bears will have a -1 day rest disadvantage.
• Lions will have a +1 day rest advantage.

2. Week Six: Bears at Commanders on Monday, October 13

• Bears will be coming off a bye week, having last played on Sunday, September 28
• Commanders will have played on the previous Sunday.
• Bears will have a +7 day rest advantage.
• Commanders will have a -7 day rest disadvantage.

There is wide disparity in net rest edge across teams

Net rest edge is calculated as the sum of the rest advantage or disadvantage across all 17 games.

In 2025, net rest edge for teams ranges from +13 days of extra rest to -19 days less rest than opponents.

Unlike which opponents teams face in a season, when and where teams play is heavily influenced by the NFL. They prioritize maximizing viewership by featuring select matchups that best showcase more popular and better teams with interesting storylines. Equity on dimensions like rest is not the primary guiding force when determining order of teams in the schedule.

A side effect of this scheduling approach is that net rest edge varies widely between teams every season. Consider 2024.

• The five teams with the biggest rest surplus were the Ravens, Patriots, Vikings, Eagles and Packers. Four of five made the playoffs.
• The five teams with the biggest rest deficit were the 49ers, Broncos, Colts, Seahawks and Chargers. Two of five made the playoffs.

As Sharp Football Analysis notes, it matters to teams.

"As we've seen with previous seasons, rest edges can be a massive benefit to one team or the other. It’s not always the total rest that matters. It can also be individual games with a rest advantage that matters. Having a rest edge does not mean you’re easily going to win a game, nor does a rest disadvantage mean you’re going to lose. But it’s a factor, and it matters to teams. Particularly when we’re talking about a 3+ day rest edge."

(For the record, the NFL says their research shows there is no direct impact on results due to rest inequities between teams.)

The Lions have the biggest rest advantage in the NFL in 2025

Their schedule includes:

• Only 1 of 17 games where they are at a net rest edge disadvantage vs. opponents. And it is only by -1 day, occurring in Week 4 versus the Browns. The Browns play the previous Sunday while the Lions are coming off playing on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
• Eight games where they have a net rest edge advantage vs. opponents. Five games where they enjoy +1 day and three games where they enjoy +3 days of extra rest.

Compare the +13 day net rest edge the Lions have with the rest of the NFC North:

• Packers have a -2 day net rest disadvantage vs. opponents. That's a -15 rest day difference vs. the Lions.
• Vikings have a -3 day net rest disadvantage vs. opponents. That's a -16 rest day difference vs. the Lions.
• Bears have a -4 day net rest disadvantage vs. their opponents. That's a -17 rest day difference vs. the Lions.

Taking a closer look at the Bears schedule, it includes:

• Only 2 of 17 games where they enjoy a net rest advantage vs. their opponent. One is +7 days (Commanders game mentioned in the example above). The other is a +2 day rest advantage.
• Five games where they have a net rest disadvantage vs. opponents. Three games with -1 day, one game with =3 days, and one game with -7 days.

In a division as highly competitive as the NFC North ─ with three playoff teams from a year ago along with an improving Bears team ─ this could be a massive advantage for the two-time defending division champs in their quest to make it three in a row.

If there is any good news, it could be an even bigger gap. Consider the Raiders who will have the worst rest disadvantage in the NFL at -19 days.