The Minnesota Vikings offense has been known for one thing since Kevin O’Connell took over as head coach, prior to the 2022 season and that’s passing. Lots and lots and lots of passing. And the numbers are there to prove it.
In all three seasons KOC has called plays and designed the Vikings’ offense, it has finished top 6 in the NFL in passing yards. Yes, that includes the nine games in 2023 where they rotated between Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall at QB1. The Vikings also ranked top 4 in passing attempts (631) both that season and with Kirk Cousins (672), in 2022.
All signs point to the MN Vikings’ starting QB in 2025 being 22-year-old JJ McCarthy. Another quick look at the numbers tells us one thing for sure. As long as the redshirt rookie — who missed all of 2024 with a torn meniscus — is healthy, not only will he pass the ball more than he ever has before, but he’s likely to throw the football about 2X more than he ever did in college.
What to expect from JJ McCarthy in 2025
The most passes McCarthy ever threw in a season at Michigan was 332, as a junior, his final collegiate season. Under Jim Harbaugh, JJ’s role was to complete 3rd downs, something he did at a 73.1% clip, which was better than anyone else in the country. Even more impressive, he went 36-of-49 (73.4%) on 3rd-and-7-plus yards. He also led the nation in completion percentage (72.3%) in 2023.
JJ McCarthy was able to consistently deliver under pressure at Michigan. pic.twitter.com/7ameDC6Fem
— Matt Fries (@FriesFootball) May 26, 2024
But for those expecting JJ McCarthy to be dropped into a pass-heavy “modern” Minnesota offense in 2025 — something most NFL pundits and informed fans are are guilty of — you may want to take a deeper look and listen to Kevin O’Connell this week down in Florida, at the NFL Owners Meetings.
While he’s been more coy about what to expect from the Minnesota Vikings offense, during multiple interviews on Monday, it was a Sunday 1v1 appearance on “This is Football” with ESPN’s Kevin Clark where the Vikings’ head coach gave away his 2025 offensive plans in greater detail.
Minnesota Vikings offense will be run-first next season?
In a thoughtful one minute answer to a question centered around what changes we can expect to see from the MN Vikings next season, KOC revealed his plans to bring JJ McCarthy along more slowly. How?
By relying on the running game to get chunks of yardage on earlier downs and using JJ’s proven 3rd down acumen to their advantage, while also protecting him from airing it out more than he is comfortable with.
This explains the Vikings offensive line signings this offseason, along with the addition of Jordan Mason to compliment Aaron Jones, who’s also returning on a relatively lucrative contract. Here’s Kevin O’Connell’s full answer on “This is Football” (transcription below video).
— Minnesota Sports Fan (@realmnsportsfan) April 1, 2025Could the Minnesota Vikings be a run-first team in 2025? Here's KOC talking over the weekend with @bykevinclark… 👀
"We've thrown the ball at a pretty high clip, like a world class effective clip for three years, with Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold last year. Now, I want to run… pic.twitter.com/dtKarBwC9z
Clark: “Biggest difference between 2024 Vikings and the 2025 Vikings, aside from personnel, would be what?”
KOC: “I think, first and foremost, every team, every years you’re reinventing yourself, while staying true to who you want to be, principles and core values. So we have to restart from the beginning or our entire journey from each year.
But I would say this, I think the things we’ve done in free agency, from the standpoint of the interior offensive and defensive lines; couple that with Aaron Jones being back, and then acquiring a player like Jordan Mason, I think a physicality that I want to play with.
We’ve thrown the ball at a pretty high clip, like a world class effective clip for three years, with Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold last year. Now, I want to run the football. I want to get back to the truest nature of where the foundation of this offense was, which is running the football and marrying the run and the pass, generating explosives that way and trying to be an effective early down offense that can sustain for 17+ weeks.”
This is Football w/Kevin Clark (ESPN)
Ok, ok… it’s one thing for KOC to say he is going to run the ball more, but old habits die hard, right? Maybe not. Remember all those insanely high passing numbers from the very top of this article? Did you notice I never mentioned Minnesota Vikings pass attempts from 2024?
Kevin O’Connell already changing his ways?
Yes, Sam Darnold & Co still racked up all sorts of passing yardage. In total, the Vikings offense is on the books for over 4,000 net yards in 2024, good for 6th most passing yards in the NFL. But unlike 2022 and 2023, where they also ranked near the top of the league in passing attempts (over 620 each season), the Vikings only threw the ball 548 times last year, dropping them from 3rd in 2023 all the way down to 18th.
Weirder yet, KOC & Co ran the ball 457 times, good for 14th most in the NFL. In 2023 and 2022, the Vikings finished 28th and 27th in team rush attempts, respectively. So, when Kevin O’Connell promises less passing and more running in 2025, those who are smart will listen to him (and put Vikings running backs on your fantasy football rosters, come August/September).
It makes sense for JJ McCarthy’s development, too. This way, he won’t go into this season feeling like he has to carry the Minnesota Vikings offense, in order for it to succeed. I expect more running and a high yards per attempt for McCarthy. One way or another, KOC is going to find those passing explosives, no matter how he has to hunt them.
