The six-time Super Bowl champion New England Patriots have been trying to recover from the sudden demise of their 20-year dynasty for the past five years. In that time, since the departure of legendary quarterback Tom Brady after the 2019 season, New England has managed only one season with a record above .500.
In that time, the Patriots have cycled through six starting quarterbacks and three head coaches. They spent first-round draft picks on quarterbacks twice in four years, in 2021 and 2024. Despite qualifying for the playoffs with a 10-7 record in 2021, the Patriots have compiled a record of 33-52 (including a loss in their only playoff game) since Brady signed as a free agent with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In 2025, new head coach Mike Vrabel, a former Patriots linebacker and coach of the Tennessee Titans from 2018 through 2023, has brought a new spirit of hope to Gillette Stadium, overhauling the coaching staff and revamping the New England roster through free agent signings, the NFL draft, and acquisitions of promising, undrafted college players once the draft was completed.
New England Optimism Running Surprisingly High
Football experts raved about the 2025 Patriots draft, with multiple commentators handing out grades of “A” or “A-” or even “A+” for the new group of potential Patriots.
The draft class is headed by offensive lineman Will Campbell of LSU, selected with the fourth overall pick, Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson — taken in the second round at No. 38 — and third round selection, at 69th overall, wide receiver Kyle Williams of Washington State.
For a team that finished with a dismal 4-13 record not only in 2024, but in 2023 as well, the Patriots were already entering 2025 with a surprising degree of hope and anticipation. Then, on Monday, the Patriots received some more news that was further cause for excitement in New England.
NFL data journalist Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis published his annual report statistically ranking the strength of the upcoming season’s schedule for all 32 teams.
What the Patriots learned is that based on Sharp’s in-depth analysis, they have the second easiest schedule of any NFL team. Only the San Francisco 49ers, who placed last in the NFC West at 6-11 last year, will play an easier schedule, according to Sharp’s analysis.
NEW: NFL strength of schedule for 2025!
5 easiest schedules:
1️⃣ 49ers
2️⃣ Patriots
3️⃣ Saints
4️⃣ Falcons
5️⃣ Bills
5 hardest schedules:
2️⃣8️⃣ Vikings
2️⃣9️⃣ Eagles
3️⃣0️⃣ Lions
3️⃣1️⃣ Browns
3️⃣2️⃣ Giants
1-32 with insight & analysis:
That projection is quite a contrast from 2024 when, despite finishing tied for the second-worst record in the league the previous year, the Patriots somehow drew the second-most difficult schedule based on Sharp’s criteria.
What difference does “strength of schedule” actually make?
According to Sharp’s data, a lot.
Most Teams With Easy Schedules Exceed Expectations
“The vast majority of teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules finish the season with winning records: 11 of 14 such teams in the last two years had winning records,” Sharp wrote on Monday.
“In 2024, just two of 10 teams with the toughest schedule made the playoffs (Lions and Rams). Meanwhile, of the 10 teams with the easiest schedule, seven produced winning records, with six making the playoffs,” he continued.
Sharp’s conclusion?
“Historically, trying to overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens. But winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectations happens often.”
According to Sharp, the New York Giants will face the toughest schedule in the 2025 NFL season, followed by the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions — with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles drawing the fourth most difficult schedule.
In another analysis, by football researcher Ivan Urena, the Patriots were assessed to have the third-easiest schedule.
