Are analytics failing the Boston Celtics as they pack an 0-2 deficit for a trip to New York? Has math met its match?
Indeed, had the Bostonians hit one (in regulation) or two more shots in the series opener and one more in Game 2, they could be the team with the 2 in this conference semifinal series.
But there’s that nagging 25 for 100 on 3-pointers and the embarrassing fact of throwing two 20-point leads to the wind. So while the Celtics have built their championship-defending foundation on the logic that some shots are worth more than others, and working to get the best of the more valuable ones, it hasn’t added up as desired in this match with the Knicks.
There is, according to NBA sources with experience, a blind spot on the analytics bus.
“Pressure is real,” one coaching veteran told Heavy Sports. “And physicality neutralizes talent.”
The same shot can be vastly different depending on game’s momentum, who’s taking the shot and how confident that player is based on his success in the recent minutes.
“It just looks like (the Celtics) are playing with a lot of weight on their shoulders,” said a front office exec who worked his way up from coaching. “They’re not playing as free. Their fourth quarters have been rough.”
Jayson Tatum ‘Feels the Weight of the World on His Shoulders’
The Celtics begin many (most?) possessions hunting a desired mismatch. But by the time they get it, if they do, they’ve eaten a good chunk of the shot clock, and even an open attempt can be rushed.
“You’ve got to run,” he said. “You’ve got to move. You can’t stop and let people just get their radar on you. You can’t let them get their hands and muscle into your body.
“I’m sure it’s frustrating for (Jayson) Tatum, because he feels the weight of the world on his shoulders right now.”
Is there where straight analytics need to take a seat and let a feel for psychology and how best to stem a tide enter the game?
“First of all, analytics have been around the game forever, and I’m all for learning everything you can,” said the exec. “But it’s always been about taking high percentage shots and getting the ball to guys who shoot the higher percentages. Then came the prevailing school of thought that you take 3s and lay-ins and free throws, and you win. But it takes more than that. You have to factor in the point in the game and things like whether the other team is on a 12-0 run — the human element.”
He then pointed to New York’s Mikal Bridges, who was scoreless on 0-for-8 shooting through three quarters, then hit 6 of 10 on the way to 14 points in the fourth.
“He gets in a groove,” the exec side. “You see the ball go in the basket once or twice and it changes all your individual analytics.
“It’s the same thing with time and score. You’re up seven points and there’s three minutes to go in the game, you need a basket, you need two points or a free throw even. You don’t need to take a 40-percent shot when a 52 percent shot where you may get to the line is better. That’s time and score and circumstance. We see all around the league how the mid-range shot is winning games in the fourth quarter and down the stretch, but some guys stick to 3s. The variance in the 3s is big in the fourth quarter when there’s more fatigue and there’s more pressure. The variance is greater, and it grows.
“Look, the 3-point shot has evolved as a weapon, and the Celtics have, like, eight really good shooters. That’s great. But you have to pay attention to the situation and pressure and how your guys are reacting to it.
“There’s a clutch factor, and it’s real. And you have to have people who can recognize it and call the right plays or get you into the right actions.”
‘The Pressure on Boston Has Mounted’
Celtic coach Joe Mazzulla would seem well-equipped to understand the human aspects of the game that go beyond the X and the O. A recent Boston Globe story on the relationship between the coach and chess champion Josh Waitzkin, now a Celtic consultant, included passages of Mazzulla trying to fathom a March 2023 loss to Brooklyn in which the Celts squandered a 28-point lead:
Despite the methodical nature of chess, massive momentum swings are common. Waitzkin succeeded by identifying tension in opponents. He could usually feel when and why they were going to break.
Waitzkin studied the cracks in that collapse against the Nets, along with other runs involving the Celtics, and helped Mazzulla focus on the psychology of how to stop, start, and maintain surges. They analyzed body language and warning signs.
One can only imagine what the coach saw in the eyes and body language as Games 1 and 2 slithered from their grasp.
“You get a 20-point lead, and everybody’s trying to hit the home run shot to end it,” one former player told Heavy. “So you get in that rut, too, while other team is coming back and 2s and 3s and free throws and just a variety of stuff.
“The pressure on Boston had mounted. The circumstance of losing two 20-point leads in a row added to it, and who knows what goes through players’ minds?
“And the perception can change in a second. Mazzulla’s a hero if Tatum sees what’s happening and finds an open guy who makes the shot. He’s a genius for having coached his guys to be ready to make that play and not let the Knicks set their defense in a timeout.”
The line between glory and doom can be just that thin.
One scout measured the Celtics with a verbal shrug.
“If they don’t hit shots, they’re not a championship team,” he said. “New York’s doing the same things they always do. There’s no chess match here. The Knicks just play hard, and when they sense weakness in you, they turn it up even more.
“The only thing I see that’s different from the regular season is that Boston isn’t making shots — and that looks like it’s getting in their heads. We’ve been saying all year that, damn, they shoot a lot of 3s, and now they’re just not making them. That’s all.”
For the Celtics, the road trip for Games 3 and 4 could turn into debilitating head trip if shots of all types don’t start finding the strings at a greater rate.
